Zeks Thoughts / Trades / Market Analysis
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Thread: Zeks Thoughts / Trades / Market Analysis

  1. #1
    Hello everyone, I am back, not that anyone cares very...
    My plan is to edue all of you on the subject of forex related news. What transferred the market, why it transferred the market, and the way it might have been traded.
    I am not the best tech trader around, so I will attempt to prevent tech comment.
    I hope you enjoy and find out something new...
    For Your WIN!!!!!!!

  2. #2
    Whew, what a rollercoster!

    Here I was, preparing for the Cad transactions, establishing my limit orders (which occupies all my screen distance ) and BAM, only 10 minutes before a scheduled release period, my speakers crackle and it happens: US cutting rates 0.75percent in a very loud and perplexed tone.

    Sadly I'm not a robot and it took me a while to take everything in, as my bad luck would have it had my orders put up as GTC limits, my first buy on GU got filled at 1.9570ish but rest of my efforts kept displaying as idle. It took me some time to realise that I didn't have market orders enabled, to change my orders, and also to click again, at which point I got the lowest price (of the very first minute following the launch )

    My thinking was that such a shocking movement would sand dollar into a tumble and equities through the roof. The following 1hr wasn't a happy time for me. I was able to squeeze in a EUR/USD postion on a first retracement, but my GU losses were incorporating up so quickly that I only had to sit and watch in terror.

    My profits on EU were very soon outweighted by reductions on GU, I really opened yet another place on EUR/USD but at a certain point had to close it for a little loss because of dangerously low margin amounts appoaching. Obviously, in another 20 seconds my EU position would be in a handsome profit.

    GU place was looking rather BAD, by I chose to stick to my guns and hold through the madness. Betting a chunck of my account along the way. Happily I was right and after about 2hrs I was in a decent profit on GU as well. It did cost me a few years off my life expectancy however.

    I figure that time greed got the best of me personally, if I waited for a retracement I might have made some serious profit... very serious profit, but what is done is done, and I am glad I held to my certainty and walked away with some nice pips.

    ---------------------------------------------------
    So, where does this leave us in the long term?

    In the moment of the statement, I didn't have much to think and EU wasn't even loaded on my platform, but Eur/USD was obviously a smarter choice. With ECB members constantly speaking about speculation of a cut not based on reality, must provide price stability inlfation is high etc etc EUR appears to have a biggest potential to the upside in the upcoming few weeks. You also have to bear in mind that the Fed will likely cut again throughout the meeting next week which will increase the rate defferantial even farther.
    I will be buying EU, slowly averaging in if I get a chance, any price below 1.4550 being quite a bargain. The most recent development make 1.5 level a virtual certainty...
    You just have to pray for a fantastic entry price.
    --------------------------------------------------
    accountable for such a long article, but boy oh boy did I have a lot boiled up inside of me.

    Best of luck,



  3. #3
    The reversal pattern of e/u looks very much like the pattern of August 17th.

  4. #4
    Another day, another dollar... hopefully!

    One thing I just noticed looking at the charts, Dollar diminished strongly (about 100 pips on eur/usd) on a day of surprise reductions... somebody must have had insider advice, oh how I envy them You might say, no , but there were rumors of a rate cut, sure, but don't forget that the very same rumors were going around for a whole of last week...

    What exactly do we have today, firstly, there's a rumor yet again, this time of an ECB emergency meeting/cut. I personally don't buy it, but you never know...

    Second, there's a UK GDP launch, coming out together with BOE Minutes, which isn't perfect, both reports provide great chances when traded sepparately, a conflict could be a large problem, so I won't be trading the spike onto this, only the aftermath. 5:4 vote and a lower than expected GDP (0.1percent defiation is usually significant) will be great.

    Expect a follow up post later on daily.

    Best of luck,

  5. #5
    Hello reader, sorry for such a late post, I was busy trading yesterday, so I didn't even have time to eat, let alone post a protracted discourse.

    First things first, UK GDP, it came out higher as you can see in the charts, first spike was roughly 40 pips to the upside. The vote came out 8:1, which matchedforexintuitivecalendar expectations, but my news source talked about 7:2 as well as 6:3 anticipation, so the vote count was fairly bullish for the Pound too, however the statement published at the same period was fairly dovish, therefore a mixed bag...

    I managed to enter at 1.9588 on a first pullback, and at any point I was going 14 pips in profit, however I decided to hold, in expectation of a more upside, but in the end, ended up with only a couple of pips, near b/e.

    There was yet another chance to enter, which was near the pre-release price of 9565 ish, which is ofter a good amount after news announcements. I however got distacted, hesitated, and overlooked the entrance for a result.There was going to a 20-30 pip upside potential with limited risk, which could have been fantastic.

    Pre-release level frequently works not only moments, but even days or weeks following the report. As a guideline, the news must have a major effect in order for this to hold though... US Interest rate surprise is the ideal illuion

    I said moving long on EU in 1.4550 and under, well since you can see it dropped to 1.4515 (less or more ) that was a fantastic buying opportunity, we have already seen 100 pips to the upside after that. The pre-release was 1.45, as shown by a red line.

    I decided to exchange GU, not quite sure why, but in the moment it seemed like following a dramatic fall that we have seen lately in GU (2.11 - 1.93) it has more upside. I've entered at 1.95 (pre-release) and 1.9480 (a reaction low from yesterday) Will be interesting to see how this plays out. S/L is roughly 200 pips, under the low. No particular target, but I'm not carrying any profits before 1.97...

    The remainder of the afternoon was fairly uneventful, in terms of news, however, volatility was amazing. I had been trading GY on breakouts and made a few severe pippage. Very short term trading is definitely for me, as in it fits in with my character, ideally this was not only a lucky run and I am going to have the ability to make some consistent profits tech trading, after about 1year of fruitless persuit.

    ----------------------------------------------------------------------
    One thing I would like to share with you guys. Eduional FX story...

    I had been sitting in my new trading group's chat room, calling my transactions (although I do not believe anyone was taking notice) but it's good for accountability, makes me feel more responsible for the transactions is take, anyhow, this guy joins the space. Agree hello, and we start talking. First thing that raised a warning sing was when he began to discuss how he makes 7.7% each day on average. Than it turns out that he has been producing that in the past five times or something. I obviously thought that he was mad, and tried to talk some sense into him, at the same time I had been suspisious that he had been going to start selling something. Since it turns out he bought some dvd course on candlesticks bu that GURU, and it had been worth its weight in gold. As he said, this guy brought candlesticks into the western world... OkOk, but 7%?!?! Are we referring to an ATM? Now he began to have offended.

    So that it turns out that he's:
    1) Risking 10% of his capital per commerce
    2) Has only been trading this method for 3 weeks
    3) Planning to turn 1000 usd into 1million over the coming year
    4) Has been trading for 20 decades.

    I just couldn't believe what I was hearing. This guy was delusional together with his dream, blinded by a lucky streak. I tried telling him that some bad transactions could ruin his account, that candle sticks would be no magic bullet, no matter who wrote the book, but he wouldn't listen.

    The guy even called out a couple of trades. One on USD/CAD, s/l 40pips and he took profits after only 18 pips, Risking 10% to make less than 4.5% profit. And than it began.

    GU commerce began to go against him (he had been brief and in the time that the Equity markets in the US began to rally) I was sort of earning fun of his ideal system not functioning (he said that he had 1 ridding commerce ) Than it arrived: OK I'm doubling up So today he had been possibly risking 30%?!?!?!
    I tried to tell him, you are risking too much, the reply was: No, it means I'm only 10 pips to break even In the end he said he shut out in -4 pips, after which GU actually begun to rally...

    I had been trading extended on GY, making pips... His reply was, do not you think that it will pull back (recall, DJI is creating news highs for the day)

    Thus, how does the story end, I shut out my last trade for the afternoon in profit, there is a tiny retrace (both GU and GY) along with the fella says, I'm carrying a Brief on GU, only for you zek, see and find out...

    Then, GU went up about 50 pips against him, for some reason he was not reacting to my questions no more... another casualty of a FX dream.

    So what do we learn from this? This guy was seriously blinded by his ambition, greed, hope, emotions. His reality was warped, he couldn't find the elephant right in front of him. Sadly, this may happen to all people , to a certain degree. I have to remind myself that I basically know nothing about the market, that I can loose most of my money in a day if I do not restrain myself.

    Be humble, or the market will humble you they state...

    I hope someone will learn from that and won't make the same mistakes.

    Best of luck,

    zek
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------


  6. #6
    So anyway, first releases for today are the Cad retail market Interest Record.

    Retail sales expected at 0.4percent m/m, which is a healthy number, considering how awful UK and US did during precisely the same period. Both countries having experienced a negative month. This leads me to anticipate a weaker number out of Canada but of course that's just a speculation. Any reading below 0 would be important IMHO, and could send the USD/CAD flying. One must keep in mind that the Interest Rate statement will be following shortly following the release and also a lot of market participant will be producing bets based on the Retail Revenue number.
    A bad number would raise the chances for a 0.5% cut, which might be very wonderful to view, as that would certainly offer some good volatility.
    BOC did surprise most people last month by cutting rates, ideally they have will try to get ahead of the curve .

    I will update the article following the dust settles...

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