There is a risk factor that markets have not discounted. I call it Trumprisk.

Let us imagine a scenario where Democrats win back the House after this year while Trump gets into serious trouble vis a vis the Mueller investigation. Markets will surely react to this by re-pricing all asset classes, and the question is how that will affect the dollar.

In the last wreck the dollar (and treasuries, which basically are dollars that bear interest) got priced up against nearly everything, such as most currencies. However, this time I believe the opposite would occur so far as the dollar is concerned.

I am highlighting this by looking at what happened the last time markets went through a major re-pricing because of Trumprisk that was election night 2016, the short version of that was after an extremely brief steep dip the dollar got bought against virtually all currencies for weeks.

So this time I'd say the opposite is most likely to occur, with most of that moving into euro and yen.

Anybody else have an opinion?