That is a pair that I trade. I would love to hear how others supports we all could talk about and exchange this and also the fibs.
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That is a pair that I trade. I would love to hear how others supports we all could talk about and exchange this and also the fibs.
Nah, I said it looks like there's not much left except gravity and that I lack motives to keep it up there(there's nothing for it to stand on).Quote:
Originally Posted by ;
It must have heard, it dropped 200 pips from the time of the posting of the chart
I will not think about a trade until a breakout of what have been in now
https://forexintuitive.com/attachments/1518234798.jpg
I trade GBPJPY doing this with reverse and stop systems. I have two systems. One is SR, another is not.
GBPJPY is a monster. I must trade it mechanically or else I would fail... I would get in and out too quickly and pulloff stupid mistakes. That's only part of me understanding who I am and adjusting my trading.
Not that this is prolly of any help just yet, but I believed I had to do an initial chart post somewhere
A solid scenario for this chart if a person is to ignore everything else would be: PB, triggered. Fell to tunnel top, bounced. More likely to sense gravity. May fall inside to retest the large red descending TL it broke out of before, this time lower, at about 191.
Then a bullish setup off of that.
An alternative might be a rise, but er, I don't see anything to lean against to kick off out of monthly?
Only a lot of leg.
This is all just long term thoughts so the chart might not be of much use to some. . .thought here'd be a nice place to think crazy thoughts publicly though
https://forexintuitive.com/attachments/1518234800.jpg
Had to do a closeup, also.
Not sure about the wedgy bedgy, but it works aight and it's fun. Heck it was a pennant. Or some thing. Maybe the FE is away. Maybe it's all coincidence. It drew in nicely
Additionally the FE stuff I find intriguing.
Still can't find much stuff to make this one go up on the chart
Mayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyybe a weekly IB break or something. . .but meh.
Could be I am only looking at it wrong.
https://forexintuitive.com/attachments/1518234803.jpg
Or perhaps you got too much friggin' crap on your chart. I wan nat hit that chart in the face...Quote:
Originally Posted by ;
So you're saying it could go down but then again, it may go up. Did I get that right?Quote:
Originally Posted by ;
Merely to emphasize this again:
If one believes only singleminded then one will be surprised. I try to keep my head to alternative situations, therefore it might have sounded like it could do.Quote:
Originally Posted by ;
This is one of my favorites to trade....carefully, really carefully!
The three months represented at the connected Daily chart show 10 transactions I chose, 9 paid out for me.
The vertical lines are the times that generated the sign; I opened on the beginning of the subsequent day.
Top window: Red = 5 EMA Close....Blue = 8 EMA Open
Lower window Red = 8 RSI ....Blue = 8 SMA
The remainder is self-explanatory I believe.
https://forexintuitive.com/attachments/1518234805.jpg
In the previous post I forgot to remark on something that shows up nicely before the trade signal on Aug 22....the 'trap pub'; this one follows six times of falling prices. I didn't take the 'break' of the pin of the very top because the RSI was not near the MA in the window. I've seen this scenario before and discovered that if I wait patiently to MA and the RSI to 'close the gap', I usually get a trade. The price ranged for 2 weeks before making an up movement as signalled for me. In fact, I might have taken this particular trade a day before utilizing the 4 hour chart (I will post more about this later), however the volatility of the pair makes me more careful in those situations.
https://forexintuitive.com/attachments/1518234807.jpg
The first thing you do to do if investing the GBP/JPY is to refer to it by its right name: The Dragon
Calling it The Dragon must tell you something: The journey can be thrilling but it's also dangerous.
If you except the fact that the two main drivers of currency price are interest rate differentials and equity driven carry trades (or that which professionals refer to as equity driven cross-border currency flows), then you need to get ready for a wild ride on Your Dragon moving forward.
Here is the very first thing to understand before approaching this beast:
the purchase price of GBP/JPY is equivalent to the price of GBP/USD multiplied by the price of USD/JPY or GBP/JPY = GBP/USD x USD/JPY. This works exactly the same for both E/J, A/J and N/J Too.
Let's review what occurred in the spring once the dollar weakened dramatically versus the large yielders (GBP, EUR, AUD and NZD) and diminished versus the Yen as GBP/JPY flew towards 251. During most of the time, the fed was percieved to be holding or maybe decreasing the overnight rate while the BoE, ECB, RBA and RBNZ were at rebuilding modes. Interest rate differentals were contrary to the dollar and the dollar weakened dramatically.
At precisely the exact same time, equity markets were performing very well and carry trades wound. When carry trades end (GBP/JPY enjoying), the dollar weakens versus the high yielders and gains vs the Yen. What this signifies is that in the spring, the two chief drivers of currency price, carry trade and interest rate differentials, worked SIMULTANEOUSLY to weaken the dollar versus the large yielders.
Let's look at today's situation. Many in the markets are worried the US might be moving into a recession. That means equities won't be favored and carry trades will loosen (GBP/JPY depreciating), causing the dollar to gain vs the high yielders and shed versus the Yen. But what can be happening is that because the fed seems to be lowering the overnight rate, the interest rate differentials are favoring the high yielders, meaning those forces will probably be pushing the dollar lower. The two chief drivers of currency price are currently working AGAINST each other. So far as G/U, E/U, A/U and N/U are worried, it's likely a tug or war will exist and that price will bounce back and forth. This has impliions for GBP/JPY because its price is a product of USD/JPY and GBP/USD.
Weekly chart:
As I had predicted that last week would be a bear week and it really turned out to be, now taking a look at the weekly fibonacci levels, GJ is looking to reevaluate the 50%, 61.8% and even touching 76.4 percent that's 212.45 area, the weekly chart is still bullish unless we get a weekly bar closing under the reduced TL, then things will probably change but in my prediction we'll touch the 76.4 percent in the coming weeks
http://img509.imageshack.us/img509/1134/gjmw1.gif
Daily chart:
As we've observed in the previous weeks, GJ retraced 50% of the move down and it's started to resume it's bearish trend today. The last day of the week, the candle closed well under the 38.2 percent fibonacci amount, the next level is the 23.6 percent that's also near the weekly 50%
http://img295.imageshack.us/img295/526/gjst9.gif
4H chart:
taking a look at the Green fibs, we finished 61.8% retracement and price has started to resume it's bearish trend. I also added the orange fibs, all these fibonacci are great levels to keep an eye, the beast will take a break at a few of those levels like it did in the 76.4 percent (orange)
http://img172.imageshack.us/img172/9167/gjwk0.gif
therefore, in simple phrases. . I visit 212 in the
I am definately bearish going into next week but I believe patience is needed for a great entry. Price action shows us an I4B week so we should remain ready for the move and after that 50 percent retracement nicely pointed out, the direction is down. Daily pub from Friday finished as a BEOB eventually breaking up the tripple low support in the 231.90 area. This alone is a really bearish sign. But we are at a brief term climbing 4h trend line and near the daily 365 ema so in these situations I love to wait for the bounce to perform out and we can see a retest of the busted support, turning into resistance, at the 231.00-231.70 area. A bearish reversal installation here on the hourly rate, rather a wonderful trap pub or a wonderful BEOB round the hourly 50 ema, would give us enough momentum to split the trendline, break the daily BEOB and perhaps force our way under 229. Good hunting!
In my last post I explained how my chart installation generated a 'buy' sign at the end of this Aug 22 Daily candle. But, 24 hours prior to this were favorable for this buy which makes it take a peek at the 4 hour chart. Slimming down to this timeframe showed conditions developing for a buy. 12 hours into Aug 22, the four hour chart showed a buy. I didn't take this ancient sign because of being very careful when trading this pair, but this egy works well on all other pairs too. If the 4 hour lines up with the Daily like this, the transaction will often be a rather great one.
https://forexintuitive.com/attachments/1518234812.jpg
I agree the general trend is down to GBP/JPY-but it's likely to be one straightened ride. I think that the post NFP price action is a pattern that will hold at weeks and the days moving forward.
There will be pressure on the dollar due to this interest rate differentials, yet the reverse cross border currency flows that will occur as auctions fall on the recession fears will work in opposition to that.
I don't honestly see how anyone can say that the trend is down on GBPJPY. Of course, fashion is relative to the timeframe that you are reviewing. If we are talking monthly and weekly we have a long way to go to be able to say, with assurance, that we are looking at a downtrend.
That is currently my biggest problem. It used to work with USD when carries unwind, today I have climbing majors and some AND a dying USDJPY crosses going bye bye, too.Quote:
Originally Posted by ;
And I simply can't see a several thousand pip GJ death whilst cable soars to record highs, but items point to bullishness in GBPUSD and EURUSD. . .while important s/r and TLs are dying on the carry. I am hard pressed to combine these opposing views into one...
One of those two will have to turn around or get trapped so the other can move freely.
GJ will gradually follow. Dunno much about the fundies forcing the markets, but in my chart I've got an ascending triangle on GJ daily with 235.50 being the top. Additionally, it created a gruesome formation, which might lead us into new highs, or into a head-n-shoulders in 241-45. For now, I until 235.Quote:
Originally Posted by ;
Here is my scalp setup: Bollinger Band MACD Optional Pivot Points
I consider Bollinger Bands as a Frenzy Limit indior. Most of the time, when the price goes beyond the ring, alerting any news/rumor, it is likely to retreat.
I believe the MACD as an avalanche indior. In case the elevation of the MACD summit is level, I dont anticipate price to go crashing down. So I trade only when the MACD has peaked (marked with the change in colour between red/blue) and going to reverse.
After I see the price punches through the Bands, *heads up *, and I affirm it with USDJPY and GBPUSD. If all 3 charts shows no sign of any anomaly, I take a contrarian position shorting a rally, buying dip for a small 5-10 pips profit.
BTW. The market could push higher and I would add positions aka Martingale. Im not all or nothing. After clearly watching it pushing for longer, I definitely close them.
So far, works most of the time and also have made relatively good cash in the last two weeks of doing it with small 10K~50K lot sizes. There have been modest amounts, but the winners were far better. I tend to cease trading when I made strings of errors signifying bad judgement calls. Cool off next 6, and trade. Works wonders.
https://forexintuitive.com/attachmen...1295126527.jpg
For the past 2 months or so, price has been bouncing off the 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8% fib amounts on the 4h chart, we also carry a triangle, after it breaksout. . We'll have a direction. 200ema (red line) has been a good resistance.
http://img259.imageshack.us/img259/7936/gjqc4.gif
It seems the majority are having the bear fever for this week and they could be correct, but I don't have that fever. On the daily chart, after the attained the 61.8% that we've been waiting for, it had been reversed and price has come back down to the 50% (235.20). When we draw a new fibo (green) from the previous bull-run from the breakout we had 2 weeks ago, the 50% fibo is directly on the daily one and price is current around there, but it could still dip to 61.8% (233.90) place before bouncing back up and most likely going to 243.50 place. Do not jump the gun and when we get a sell-off or panic selling everything that I said is useless, so be cautious, have patience and await confirmation before pulling the trigger, fantastic luck.
http://img235.imageshack.us/img235/7804/gjsi4.gif
excellent close to the day.
Along with just pivots, GJ additionally follows series which makes it exceptionally predictable, a combination
GJ went up 144 pips and dropped 89 pips out of previous day near, bothe being fib string numbers.
https://forexintuitive.com/attachments/1518234944.jpg
What's GJ so predictable ???
To answer this question, let me take two charts, one is in string format and the other one is in pivots format.
Now, what to be understood here is that the Pivot levels once broken in normal trading conditions then the next level must be attained, however in strong spike states it doesn't apply.
A careful analysis of the series pattern and pivots provides the trading pattern to be expected for the entire day ahead pr the subsequent 24 hours.
Lets say in chart 1, we have a string chart, here 89 comes closer to 210.07 about which is Pivot on the pivots chart, therefore I do anticipate GJ to go to the Pivot as commerce #1.
After this the 144 lineup is far off equally Pivot and R1, therefore this is highly improbable, so GJ will bounce in the Pivot and proceed to S1 or S2 to fill out the trend go for the afternoon.
View !!!
https://forexintuitive.com/attachments/1518234946.jpg
https://forexintuitive.com/attachments/1518234948.jpg
Commoooooooooooon currently... just a little bitty...
https://forexintuitive.com/attachments/1518234950.jpg
it will be 207 not Only a little bittyQuote:
Originally Posted by ;
Fib Series is as follows
0 1 2 3 5 8 13 21 34 55?89?144?233 and so on
here each number is a sum of previous two numbers.
2 3=5
3 5=8
5 8=13
and so on
Now lets say Monday's closing was 100
the levels become
100
101
102
103
105
108
113
121
134
155
189
244
and so on
we consider the value of fib show in pip terms and either add to become upper levels or subtract to get lower levels.
Can I've 189 as GJ price ?
199Quote:
Originally Posted by ;
LOL, I am no good at prediction. Better at Postdiction. LOL
BUT, I say 193.74 about or on 02/25/2008
Lets see if I am even close. This is of course just for fun. Please don't trade on my predictions, because I don't.
Thanks for the suggestion Scott! Just opened a new postion targetting that magic numberQuote:
Originally Posted by ;
Just joking too hehe - hope you're keeping well btw...
Steve
Yes, I have had a great month so far... However, this is a lot simpler, if we were permitted to forecast the past. I will do that with almost 100 % accuracy.Quote:
Originally Posted by ;
I could get 100 percent if I could manage to pay attention. . LOL...
take care steve....
Scott
I was just playing around with light, I don't think in predicting or calling, I think in what the charts have to give me at the present.Quote:
Originally Posted by ;
I loe the overall trend then trade on the current trend, that's level by level.
That I was not posting in light of the posts, I was only offering mild conversation.LOL. .Quote:
Originally Posted by ;
Scott
I got that same amount last night but after yesterday's news I am uncertain about the date prediction. May be this will be time! 7Quote:
Originally Posted by ;
Could be... maybe some time at the very first part of the first week of March?Quote:
Originally Posted by ;
My bullish http://beuleah.wordpress.com/2008/02/05/trade-setup-63/ was by 10th feb we will see 213.65 that's already 5 times late due to US service industry data every week. 198 should be a point in between IMO so not quite certain how long the stimulus package can hold down it.Quote:
Originally Posted by ;
My short is accepted (currently) according to this
Truly no thought about if :--RRB-
PS: Only predictions. (Yes, my fibs r belly up)
Leg down?
Maybe, maybe not. I moved 30 minutes past at 210.95 based from the tendency I drew in below, however closed out at 211.14 because it is still dicey.Quote:
Originally Posted by ;
https://forexintuitive.com/attachments/1518234953.jpg