How to keep in faith with a statistically profitable system?
Dear fellow traders, I have a query stuck and still can't figure it out by myself, maybe I did not learn enough.
This query is made for any quants, please help me with this
Here we go:
Let's say we've test our platform for after, say it 100 transactions, and we have 90 winning transactions and 10 losing transactions (so we've simply 90% winning and 10% shedding in percentage terms)
Then, we run the system at the account, and suddenlywe have like 30 consecutive losses. In accordance with our system it was 10 percent of failures, therefore we must theoretically stick with our platform and expecting that we shall at least have other 270 winners (when we're planning to make a 300 commerce in a year), am I correct? Please fix if anything wrong
Nah, the inquiry is, how can we know the next trades will be 270 consecutive winning trades? It may be 100 consecutive losing trades then 900 winning trades in a row, and it'll still be 10 and a 90% winning.
If so, how can we simply apply what we have analyzed systems, even it's a 99% winning platform, it also could be a 10 consecutive losing trades and 990 winning transactions, how can we maintain in religion with our platform which generates large numbers of losing trades in a row while it was statistically a profitable systems?
Please help me with This Issue