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Thread: FX-Petra Trade Journal

  1. #1
    #8217;s Trade Journal

    I am starting this diary for me. If others read it and can take anything useful from it, which is ok with me. I am aware that the fantastic majority of posters here at the factory strongly disagree with my market perspectives. I am not starting this diary to argue with you! Should you disagree, then please just leave me to my own demise.

    I will react to reasonable questions. Please keep in mind that although my system is rather easy to employ, the justifiion and mathematics behind it are not. Entirely describing my system along with the math that it took to invent it is hardly something that I have the time or patience to do. If you're very mathematically inclined, or possess master#8217;therefore degree or higher formal instruction, then I welcome your thoughtful questions. I am a really humble person and am not trying to be arrogant in any way-- but I just do not have the time teach a course within predictive figures.

    This program will eventually fail. I think I've devised a manner that gives me a fighting CHANCE to be alive after 10,000 trades. If I attain that amount I will have made a sizable enough lump sum of money to live my life from the manner of my choosing.

    So here goes:

    1) Market Entry -- Random, but not suicidal. I am not attempting to predict where the market is going, but I am also not dumb enough to step in front of a freight train. If a huge move is underway, I will wait until things settle down until I create a new entry.

    Two ) Currency-- Eur/Usd (low spread price )


    3) Market Exit -- 22 pip stop loss (from entrance ), 25 pips require profit (from entrance )

    4) Daily Goal-- 2 winning trades per day

    5) Beginning Pip dimensions -- .10 pip per 12,000 of equity

    6 months ) Largest pip size -- 204.8

    7) Maximum commerce sequence -- 12 transactions (12 losses in a row will end this experiment and result in a total drawdown of $9,213.)

  2. #2
    Day 1 was a breeze. 2 entrances, both struck TP befor SL.

    Brief at 1.4655, TP in 1.4630

    Long At 1.4628, TP in 1.4653

    2 succesful trades-- outside for your day.

  3. #3
    1st win struck during Asian session-- Level 2 order

    2nd triumph strike during US session-- Level 2 order

    Out to the day.

  4. #4
    1 series complete throughout Asian semester -- Level 3

    1 string finish throughout US session-- Level 1

    Out to the day.

  5. #5
    Any particular time or pattern which you use to input your positions? Will want to view your weekly outcomes.

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    [font=Times New Roman][size=3]Let me say again that I WILL hit a string of 11 losses in a row should I exchange long enough....
    The probabilities in your calculation look a little strange - where can the .9997636 come from? In a haphazard market, the chance to loose a 25/22 exchange should be 56%, or? In this case I compute a 99.99% confidence level to go broke before 5417 days, and a 50% confidence level to go broke before 407 days are over. m.

  7. #7
    2 trades powerful -- both in US session-- both level 1 trades.

    Outside for the day.

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    The probabilities on your calculation seem a little odd - where can the .9997636 come out of? In a random market, the probability to loose a 25/22 trade should be 56%, or? In this scenario I compute a 99.99% confidence level to go broke before 5417 days, and also a 50% confidence level to go broke before 407 times are over. M.
    Sorry, I used the incorrect sequence of numbers (I have a lot of these on my own desk, lol).

    NT= log(1-DC) / log(1-P)

    NT= number of transactions
    DC= Levels of certainty (.9999)
    P= probability of 12 losing trades in a row ((25/47)^12)= 5.128634960620557320335891201874e-4

    NT= log(.0001) / log (.99948701365039379442679664108798)

    NT= 17,950

  9. #9
    I recommend to check out the probabilities another way: So you have a tripping chance on the first day of ~ 5E-4, i.e. a surviving chance of ~99.9487%. The chance to survive 2 days in a row is then 0.999487**2 99.897 percent. Continuing this, you will see that the chance of actually surviving 17000 days is 0.999487**17000 = 0.01%! Actually, half of the experiments similar to this will be dead after 1350 days. Never mind, but I hope you do not really bet your retirement on this experimentation! m.

  10. #10
    Beginning equity-- $1,000 usd (that the remainder of my equity is sitting at a currency market)

    Ending Equity-- $1,041.27

    Longest Sequence-- 4 trades

    Off to a strong (and unspeular) beginning. Let us see what week # 2 yeilds.

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