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Thread: DIY Trading - An Art of Probability

  1. #1
    This is a demo Journal of my updated Do It Yourself Trading - An Art of Probability"; egy. Too much system and indiors on the market, I attempted, but failed. So I will do it my way!!

    Trading Elements:

    Chart: Candlestick (need just 1 candlestick to concentrate)
    Timeframe: Daily
    Indiors: None
    Entrance: 3:00 am to 5:00 am (time I usually get up from bed)
    Exit: 5:00 pm to 5:00 am (before bumping from work) or (before bedtime) or (before entrance time the next trading day) (you have to closed all open position before launching a new one)
    Stop Loss: None
    Free margin level: 400% to 300% (enough to competition drawdown volatility of this day)

    The Strategy:
    Entry Rule 1. Input position in the direction of the last candle of the daily chart. (simple as that)
    2. Repeat rule no. 1 to the remaining pairs until free margin attained to 400%-300%. (the bigger the better)
    3. Same lot dimensions

    Exit Rule 1. Just follow depart element regardless of result (either or - ). (just like that)

    It#8217;s like a daily regimen. Open trades when you awaken and closed at bedtime.

    This really is a zero sum game. A game of chance. The egy#8217;s success is dependent upon the no. Of daily winning trades compared to losing one. The odds of getting more W than L would be to get entries in different pairs, appropriate lot sizing will do just fine. I will post no chart, just daily results, as I rely mainly to a candlestick. Goal is 50K from 1K, before bringing this egy to live. (I have a running live account based on this egy but using trading elements). This is much more on balancing and probability market movement. The world is stressful. Why complie things? So wish me luck.

  2. #2
    Current position: from 31 transactions, 13 are winners. The probability of closure with adverse is HIGH. However, one trade is currently doing well as of the moment. Do not wait all next trading day to exit.

  3. #3

  4. #4
    Your time zone isn't clear. Your own 3am and 5am and 5pm, what's all three of these, that London time. Thank you
    Regards

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Your time zone isn't apparent. Your own 3am and 5am and 5pm, what is all three of them, that London time. Thanks and Regards
    thanks for the subs. Great question, your correct the London time of it. But not all the time the trend of the afternoon develops in London time and confirmed during NY period which is also a great starting point for departure.

  6. #6
    18 days functionality analysis monitoring for probability market equilibrium motion (data from fxblue):

    1. Hours of day no. Of transactions - 83% of entry position performed @ 1am to 4am (GMT 3 fxblue)
    2. Duration of transactions - 1 day
    3. no. Of transactions per day - nearly equal except for friday (past friday still available)
    4. Management of transactions - nearly equal (very important to equilibrium market motion)

    5. Pips daily - range (favorable)
    6. Spread of return daily - highest negative spread is -10% daily 3
    7. Balance drawdown - 1st week reached -50 percent
    8. Risk of ruin - probability of losing half is 54 percent
    9. Emblem internet profit - 7 disadvantage out of 29 emblem

    Conclusion:
    Risk of ruin = HIGH
    Probability of winning = HIGH
    Risk Reward Ratio = 4.10









  7. #7
    Will the risk stay the sasme or will it be if you have som winners ? Or will you correct your position dimensions so ou almost possess this risk of ruin ?

    Best regards

  8. #8
    Why haven't you shut your open positions on Friday afternoon (February 16th)...?

    Additionally, by reducing the lot size (vulnerability) the Risk of Ruin may be lowered, and the egy could still attain a nice size stable profit.

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Will the risk remain the sasme or will it be less if you've som winners ? Or are you going to adjust your position dimensions so ou almost have this risk of ruin etc ? Best regards
    it'll be less if I made more consecutive W than L.the first 10 trading days drawdown are huge coz of not even lot sizes inducing negative total despite more winners. This is the portion of the I am monitoring and to decrease risk, so far placement with lot size works for now. .

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Why haven't you closed your open positions on Friday afternoon (February 16th)...? Additionally, by reducing the lot size (vulnerability) the Risk of Ruin may be reduced, and the egy could still attain a decent size steady profit.
    Really still within my depart elements, I have to admit I'm considering of not closing it because of 1 place the btcusd. So much it turns out good. Will shut it when market resumed. Thank you for the input regarding RR

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