Winners And Losers Trading System - Page 2
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Thread: Winners And Losers Trading System

  1. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Jim that's my understanding. Megaleads can confirm we've got it right.
    Maybe I am just dense, but it's the D cease I am have trouble with. .

    The entire thing hinges on this and I am not so convinced. Imagine if the market continues in the path of the transaction?

    Could someone do an example using numbers for each and every factor? It simply does not look safe to me...

  2. #12
    Let#8217;s have a GBP/USD trade today on the FOMC statement for an illuion (cuz vol has been quick and profound ).

    You enter your commerce at 14:00EST.. Long and short at 1.9586/84. Let#8217;so utilize a 100 pip min profit goal.

    At 14:30 the goal is hit. Great! Were up 100 pips on the winner, down 102. We set the Winner monitoring stop at 30 pips.

    In 15:05 the stop is struck at 1.9663. We place the 77 pips in our pocket but were sitting on a 79 pip loss.

    As D is described, we then set our shedding commerce trailing stop at 79 pips. Either that means were going to close it immediately (if it#8217;s from entry) or risk an additional 79 pips (if it#8217;s from current price).

    In 05:30 the trade is stopped out with a 147 pip loss. Yield for this particular trade is -70 pips. The Dollar really didn#8217;t profit you anything.

    Had the retail sales statistics at 5:30 come out feeble, you could have in theory made a profit but only if price completely reversed and surpassed the 1.9584 entrance. That#8217;s a fairly big if as your sole potential to generate money. Basically the only time you make money is when you can accurately pinpoint the reversal area.

    It should also be noted that this was examined in hindsight. You have to have the appropriate C and B values for every pair or your never going to h a winner.

  3. #13
    There's another flaw in this method; position size/risk. Your defining A upon entry, but you do not understand what your stoploss will probably be until the first transaction closes. At state $10 /pip the transaction that I outlined would place complete poistion risk at $790. If the initial hedge had moved state 100 pips before being stopped out, your overall poistion risk could be $1002. Thats a 26% rise in risk with a 26% decrease likelihood of breaking (because of the bigger price correction required ).

  4. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Let#8217;s have a GBP/USD trade today on the FOMC announcement for an illuion (cuz vol has been fast and deep).

    You put in your commerce at 14:00EST.. Long and short at 1.9586/84. Let#8217;s use a 100 pip min profit target.

    At 14:30 the goal is hit. Great! Were up 100 pips on the winnerdown 102 about the loser. We place the Winner monitoring stop at 30 pips.

    In 15:05 the stop is hit at 1.9663. We put the 77 pips in our pocket but were sitting on a 79 pip loss.

    As D is clarified, we then place our losing trade monitoring stop at 79 pips. Either this means were planning to close it immediately (if it#8217;s out of entry) or risk an extra 79 pips (if it#8217;s out of current price).

    In 05:30 the transaction is stopped using a 147 pip loss. Total yield for this particular transaction is -70 pips. The hedge really didn#8217;t even gain you anything.

    Had the retail sales data at 5:30 come out feeble, you might have in theory made a profit but only if price completely reversed and exceeded the 1.9584 entry. That#8217;s a fairly big if as your only potential to generate money. Basically the only time you earn money is when you can accurately pinpoint the reversal area.

    It should also be mentioned that this was examined in hindsight. You must have the appropriate B and C values for every pair or your never going to h a winner.
    Good synopsis. One thing, however.

    In the original article, I don't think equivalent to'D' means equivalent to the 79 pips. I believe that stop is up to the trader's discretion, also, following your case, 30 pips would be reasonable.

    Therefore, since the price moved up rather than pulling back as it often does after an event, then the total loss would be around 30 pips take or give. When it pulled back, then the system would be working as planned.

    I concur, picking the B, C, D values are all critical.

  5. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Great synopsis. 1 thing, however.

    In the first article, I really don't think equivalent to'D' means equivalent to the 79 pips. I think that cease is up to the trader's discretion, also, following your example, 30 pips would be reasonable.

    So, because the price moved up rather than pulling back because it often does after an event, then the entire reduction would be about 30 pips give or take. If it pulled back, then the machine would be working as intended.

    I agree, choosing the B, C, D values are critical.
    So if I understand, the D factor is a tough stop by the take profit point of the profitable trade and and then also becomes a trailing stop, in the event the unprofitable side begins to move in the appropriate direction... Is that the idea?

  6. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    So if I understand, the D variable is a tough stop from the take profit stage of this profitable trade and also then also becomes a trailing stop, in the event the unprofitable side begins to proceed in the appropriate path... Is that the idea?
    That's how I know it.

  7. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    In the original article, I don't think equivalent to'D' means equivalent to the 79 pips. I think that stop is up to the trader's discretion, and, after your case, 30 pips would be fair.

    So, since the price moved up rather than pulling back as it frequently does after an event, then the entire loss would be about 30 pips take or give. When it pulled back, then the machine would be functioning as planned.

    I agree, choosing the B, C, D values are crucial.
    That would make the system much worse. Don't forget that the next trade starts down 79 pips. Having a 30 pip prevent it needs to move in your favor 80 pips to make 1 but only 30 contrary to shed 109. Thats a huge loss bias barrier to overcome.

    The machine would be much better if you just prevented the initial hedge criteria all together. Use the rules to establish entrance criteria and you're able to get in at precisely the same loion at lower cost...

  8. #18
    The concept is to take advantage of the retracement without having the ability to forecast the direction of the market within another hour.

    Therefore C - the trailing stop loss and D that the stop loss on the loosing side ought to both be rather tiny amounts and fairly close to each other in value.

    The concept would be to look at the currency pair that you're trading and determine what a substantial transfer in that market is... For instance we may consider EUR/USD and determine that most 30 or 40 pip movements in one direction is accompanied by a fair retracement...

    In this scenario I'd Set B to 30 pips. That way the trailing stop loss isn't activated until one of those transactions in profitable by 30 pips.

    When for instance the stop loss was established to 5 or 10 pips... as the price retraced and gained momentum against the winning side / in favour of the loosing side you change modes from gaining profit manner to decrease loss style

    AT THAT POINT IN TIME:
    #1 - Take your profits out of the winning commerce
    #2 - Set a trailing stop loss on the loosing side...

    *** NOTE *** to expand on stage #2 above... the trailing stop loss is activated at the exact same point in time that the winning commerce is shut... it isn't retroactive in the stage that the loosing commerce was opened. Therefore the trailing stop can be a really small amount 5 or 10 pips.... And therefore it will likely stop out only after the retracement is finish.

    It's like breaking up the whip - use the momentum to obtain profits and only use the markets volatile retracement to decrease the losses....

    Additionally - take note that there is no need for a total account stop loss because it is predefined in the purpose of the Expert Adviser. Initially the pair is perfectly hedged. No stop reduction required - then once profit negative is closed a small stop reduction is entered on the loosing trade.

  9. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    The machine would be a lot better if you just prevented the first hedge standards all together. Use the rules to establish entrance criteria and you're able to get in at exactly the same place at lower price...
    in case you don't hedge to start out with you don't have the equity banked. Remember your looking for a way take advantage of these breakouts and the volatility - bank those profits - set them aside and then use the markets retracement to decrease the losses. The better your preferences of B Vitamin D are into the market you are trading the broader your gains and losses position may get.

    Wider is better

  10. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    There's another flaw in this system; position size/risk. Your defining A upon entry, but you do not know exactly what your stoploss will be till the initial trade closes. At state $10 /pip the trade that I outlined would place complete poistion risk at $790. If the first hedge had transferred state 100 pips prior to being stopped out, your total poistion risk will be $1002. Thats a 26% increase in risk with a 26% lower likelihood of breaking (because of the bigger price correction required ).
    All positions are known up front

    A = Lot size = 1.0 lots
    B = Range in pips = 30 pips
    C = STOP LOSS ONCE B HAS BEEN ACHIEVED = 5 pips
    D = Stop loss applied to the hedge side after gain side closes = 5 pips

    Web Result
    Pair Starts out at 1.3000 - what happens next? Goes Down 55 pips to 1.2945 after which retraces into 1.2985

    The Sop loss of 5 pips is triggered on the brief side since the pair falls below 1.2970

    afterward the stop loss is triggered on the SHORT since the pair yells at 1.2950

    at 1.2950 the trailing stop loss is entered to the LONG side. When the Long Side hits 1.2985 then retraces back 5 pips down to 1.2980 the LONG side is closed

    TOTAL GAIN = 1 lot Gain of 30 pips = Internet Profit @ 100:1 = 300

    This may occur a few times a day not to mention several times a week. . It can happen a few times back to back during news.

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