Greetings to all fellow traders,
to start with, I know all of the pitfalls of martingale trading style and lots sizing and averaging egies. And I am fully conscious of the consequences of doing this in bad times like going against tendencies , or beginning your buy or sell series at low or high peaks respectively,. However I feel that if you do it in the ideal time it would be very profitable.
In my opinion, and I repeat, MY OWN PERSONAL OPINION, I think there is no proven working trading system yet for retail Forex traders. Logically when there was one, the thread about that egy will be the final thread ever in any Forex forums, like whats the purpose of suggesting and searching for more trading egies if we had a HOLY GRAIL at hand? Unfortunately we don't have that yet, and most probably we wont have it. The evidence for this argument is all of the dead threads here inforexintuitiveand other Forex forums about egies which worked at previous times for specific intervals, and were extremely popular in these times, but only the time came in which they stopped working. And most probably all of the currently trending and active trading systems threads and prospective ones will perish eventually. I am not saying this to knock off any one, but its only what I think.
The reason behind this is that we as retail traders have lost information and data about the markets. All technical indiors utilized by Forex traders have been calculated based on historical data, that is it, these indiors don't give any insight what about future outcomes. Retail traders however, decided by combining such indiors together in a particular order, and after specific rules, they could forecast future prices or directions. Well, it works half a week, and doesn't work the other half. For example, some traders say that when the price hits the upper band in BB the price should retrace and go south, others state that if this happened it indies a strong tendency and proceeds north movement. By looking at charts both situations happened at that case, thus there is no way of successfully calling the future movement with an opportunity better than 50:50.
Prices moves based on ask/demand only. The ask/demand is affected by economic news, disasters, wars ... etc.. But in the end, its all about ask/demand. We as retail traders don't have such advice nor knowledge. Major banks and governments have them and they restrain them as per their own egies. Japan wants to dump the Yen worth to boost exports, the government takes actions by reducing asking prices, not the so called shareholders. A major bank wants good profits, it pumps the price of a particular currency or exotic in the ideal time and runs with all the profits, well that is not us either. Unfortunately, the only way of profiting from this would be to get an insider who provides us with such information before the real event, not following it. So each of the analysis of the market moved (past tense) there is useless, the event took place, it is good to know why and how it occurred. But unfortunately its useless advice for traders, what already took place because pf so and so, get over it. But, you will find tons of these insiders and people who are in contact them in the scam department LOL.
When it comes to martingale trading fashion, it is the only manner in theory to have guaranteed profits. However, the theory suggests you should have sufficient funds to do so. The market makers are using this technique against us, aside from having the spread edge, they're hedging our transactions hopes we lose and they win. That happens because for good risks traders undertake in their position sizing, bad money management and reckless obeying egies. However, when we do martingale correctly, we could change this.
These are my ideas and comments, and I'd love to hear yours.
Regards.