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Thread: Is the martingale way the only way in Forex?

  1. #1
    Greetings to all fellow traders,

    to start with, I know all of the pitfalls of martingale trading style and lots sizing and averaging egies. And I am fully conscious of the consequences of doing this in bad times like going against tendencies , or beginning your buy or sell series at low or high peaks respectively,. However I feel that if you do it in the ideal time it would be very profitable.

    In my opinion, and I repeat, MY OWN PERSONAL OPINION, I think there is no proven working trading system yet for retail Forex traders. Logically when there was one, the thread about that egy will be the final thread ever in any Forex forums, like whats the purpose of suggesting and searching for more trading egies if we had a HOLY GRAIL at hand? Unfortunately we don't have that yet, and most probably we wont have it. The evidence for this argument is all of the dead threads here inforexintuitiveand other Forex forums about egies which worked at previous times for specific intervals, and were extremely popular in these times, but only the time came in which they stopped working. And most probably all of the currently trending and active trading systems threads and prospective ones will perish eventually. I am not saying this to knock off any one, but its only what I think.

    The reason behind this is that we as retail traders have lost information and data about the markets. All technical indiors utilized by Forex traders have been calculated based on historical data, that is it, these indiors don't give any insight what about future outcomes. Retail traders however, decided by combining such indiors together in a particular order, and after specific rules, they could forecast future prices or directions. Well, it works half a week, and doesn't work the other half. For example, some traders say that when the price hits the upper band in BB the price should retrace and go south, others state that if this happened it indies a strong tendency and proceeds north movement. By looking at charts both situations happened at that case, thus there is no way of successfully calling the future movement with an opportunity better than 50:50.

    Prices moves based on ask/demand only. The ask/demand is affected by economic news, disasters, wars ... etc.. But in the end, its all about ask/demand. We as retail traders don't have such advice nor knowledge. Major banks and governments have them and they restrain them as per their own egies. Japan wants to dump the Yen worth to boost exports, the government takes actions by reducing asking prices, not the so called shareholders. A major bank wants good profits, it pumps the price of a particular currency or exotic in the ideal time and runs with all the profits, well that is not us either. Unfortunately, the only way of profiting from this would be to get an insider who provides us with such information before the real event, not following it. So each of the analysis of the market moved (past tense) there is useless, the event took place, it is good to know why and how it occurred. But unfortunately its useless advice for traders, what already took place because pf so and so, get over it. But, you will find tons of these insiders and people who are in contact them in the scam department LOL.

    When it comes to martingale trading fashion, it is the only manner in theory to have guaranteed profits. However, the theory suggests you should have sufficient funds to do so. The market makers are using this technique against us, aside from having the spread edge, they're hedging our transactions hopes we lose and they win. That happens because for good risks traders undertake in their position sizing, bad money management and reckless obeying egies. However, when we do martingale correctly, we could change this.

    These are my ideas and comments, and I'd love to hear yours.

    Regards.

  2. #2
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    I feel that there's no proven working trading platform nonetheless for retail Forex traders.
    Just how do you believe a small minority of independent, non-institutional traders are making their livings from it, some of them for years, then?


    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Logically when there was one, the thread relating to this egy will be the last thread ever in any Forex forums
    What causes you to believe that (a) what they are doing is reduceable to a forum thread, or (b) they'd have incentive or motive to submit you to be printed in a forum?


    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    The evidence for this debate is all of the dead threads inforexintuitiveand other Forex forums about egies which worked at previous times for specific periods, and were extremely popular at those times, but simply the time came in which they stopped functioning.
    The overwhelming majority of them never had an edge in the first loion.

    But this isn't evidence of anything. It's only very highly selected anecdotal proof that the men and women who post systems in forums are not among that small minority (which is probably true, at least for the most part).


    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    All technical indiors used by Forex traders have been calculated based on historical data, that is it, these indiors don't offer any insight what so ever about future outcomes.
    I feel the words any insight whatsoever are an exaggeration.

    What your opinion above illues is the prediction fallacy.

    It's completely true that there isn't an indior-based system (in a forum, or anywhere else) which can reliably forecast the outcome of a particular trade. And the fact of that inference is blinding you to the reality that there are a number of indior-based systems which may forecast the collective, entire outcome of hundreds of transactions reliably enough for them to be steadily profitable when traded by specialists with appropriate position-sizing, market awareness and all the rest of it.


    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Retail traders nevertheless, decided that by mixing such indiors collectively in a specific order, and following specific rules, they can forecast future prices or directions.
    Some do, yes - and they are usually falling into the prediction fallacy, also.

    But none of this has anything to do with Martingales, whatsoever.

    Basically, it is mad to permit the dimensions for a given place to be determined by the results of the previous trade.

    Either the way you are trading comes with a positive expectancy, in which case you don't require a Martingale, also it doesn't, in which case you shouldn't be trading which way and no amount of Martingale position-sizing will make it secure to trader.

    Martingale appeal only to people who don't really quite understand expectancy (although some of them believe they do) and are simply rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic. However, that's undeniably a lot of people.

  3. #3
    [quote=Darastonius/quote]

    very true words!

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    quote How do you believe a tiny minority of independent, non-institutional traders have been creating their livings from it, a number of them for decades, then?
    And how do you know that ?

  5. #5
    A martingale cannot turn a trader into a trader. But a martingale can turn a trader into a trader.

    When you have a egy which works with no martingale, why risk it. If your egy doesn't work without a martingale, then it'll be certain not work with a martingale. You cannot beat at math.

    You might be right about no known system. Since what makes a system a winner is the trader himself. That´s why I´d call it a trading egy as Opposed to a system

  6. #6
    There is a term that explains many losers on the market.

    It's:

    martingale suckers.

  7. #7
    Thank you all for your valued interactions, I do not understand how to quote exact sentences said be fellow traders posts here ( I can quote entire posts, but that would be too much hehe), so I will react as follows:
    P.S.. These are my personal opinions and I could be wrong, and I welcome all kinds of remarks

    I do not mean to utilize martingale concerning double position sizes at a losing streak until I reach break or authentic target profit, that's futile and no capital in the world would be enough for such egy no matter what wining percent it's.

    I said that all indiors do not give any hint about future events because they clarify what happened previously, and I still believe so. It is correct that several indiors or egies work best in different market conditions ( trending/ ranging). It is not hard to state that one should have achieved a trending egy at an trending pair at a certain time, and a ranging egy at a ranging pair at a certain time by simply looking at previous trends or ranging charts. Its like predied on the egy we ought to have bought at price X and TP at price Y and so forth. But the problem is that its currently previously, it's gone. That's why most of EA's or egies back studying is deceivingly profitable, because they have been tuned to certain conditions which occurred previously, and there's no guarantee what so ever that such conditions would happen again in the future, and that's why all of them eventually fail at real time live trading.

    Show me a egy that's currently profiting, and I will show you 100 egies which were profitable before and have been as popular as your planned egy back then, but eventually stopped working and now dumped. And the same fate most probably awaits current egies.

    I know that a thread to get a Holy Grail doesn't and will not exist. And by Holy Grail I do not mean having 100% wining transactions, but enough wining rate and risk:benefit ratio to make it profitable indefinitely. I wont take care of paid one, or paid coaching courses for a profitable trader, simply because if those guys (aka scammers) had it, they won't bother sophistiing them selves into selling it or instruct it's secrets for any fixed price.

    I understand that some individuals are profitable in trading, but for how long can they live doing this? Many reputable and famous hedge fund managers took astrophic career ending losses, and many traders shed at the end. In my perspective, this happens because they and we as retail traders are overlooking something, and to tell the truth, I don't understand what it is. That's why I started this discussion at the first place.

    What I understand is that brokers use their massive combined capital against us as individuals, that's a sort of martingale. They maintain betting against us by hedging our rankings until we float one, and they end up at profits at the end. Some profitable traders are there for a certain time, but they are nothing near massive horde of winners. The house always wins, this notion also applies to casinos when betting against individual players.

    The main rule in any trade is to buy at reduced and sell at large to become profitable. The problem in Forex markets is defining the low and high, but me for example I can estimate it based on my own analysis. Of course I could be right or wrong, I won't ever understand. By way of instance I wait to get a massive continuous trend for approximately 1000-1200 pips in JPY pairs, I set a buy limit of 0.01 Lot if the trend was downward and a sell limit when the trend was upwards, TP is 300 pips. This way I understand that I'm some how near the low or the large. Then I start incorporating 0.01 positions when the market goes against me each 100 pips and then adjusting the TP level by 50 pips. If the trend goes against me for another 1000 pips ( 2000-2200 pips complete continuous trend without change) I would have a total open positions of 0.1 and total reduction of -500$ ( My account is 10k $). Finally the price would retrace because who ever was pushing it wants to liquidate his rankings to claim profits, and the price would be considered over/under priced determined by trend direction. That's the martingale which I am discussing, not a happy go lucky trader choosing a position in arbitrary and then doubling it up each 10 pips or so to profit 1 $ at the end.

    Your feedback is highly valued.

    Regards

  8. #8
    0.1 lots is 1 dollar per movement

    At 2000 pips against you you have

    2000 pips
    1900 pips
    1800 pips
    1700 pips
    1600 pips
    1500 pips
    1400 pips
    1300 pips
    1200 pips
    1100 pips
    1100 pips

    I believe that is 16500 pips. Which in your case is 5% of your account. That means your first trade size is 0.03? Which broker gives you trades that small? Your winning commerce when it went with you would be 9 dollars. That's 0.09 percent on a great trade.

    May be I am way off base, but even then you're assuming that following the streak against you it recovers for your profit point, which is just something like 200 pips lower than when you started?

    The only way that makes any sense is if you're a billionaire that's trading forex because you're bored with your premier league football club.

  9. #9
    Martingale is very good to maximize returns with the help of fortune.

    Exactly the identical principle applies to no stop loss.

    Is it unlikely to experience 10 consecutive losses with a rr of 1:5 and a small multiplier or 1 reduction with a rr of 5:1 ?

    It is contingent on the egy... and fortune.

    Take it simple. . Nobody with a brain pretends to earn any cash in the long run with milligr or no sl. . It is called trading.

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Greetings to all fellow traders, First of all, I know all the downsides of martingale trading style and lots sizing and averaging tactics. And I am completely conscious of the consequences of doing this in bad times like moving against trends , or starting your own buy or sell chain at low or high peaks. However I feel that in the event you do it at the right time it would be quite profitable. In my opinion, and I repeat, MY OWN PERSONAL OPINION I believe there's no proven working trading system yet for retail Forex traders. Logically...
    This is a really uninformed and misleading article, my friend. When it comes to martingale trading fashion, it is the only manner in theory to have ensured profits - LMAO

    I feel there's no established working trading system yet for retail Forex traders. Logically if there was one, the thread about that egy is going to be the last thread in any Forex forums, like whats the purpose of suggesting and searching for more trading systems if we had a HOLY GRAIL in the hand? Unfortunately we don't have that yet, and many likely we wont have it.

    Wow, this is absolute ignorance, man. People today jump from system to system not automatically because the machine is not profitable, but since they are not individual enough to properly learn all the factors that produce the machine work and use them accurately or they throw risk management out the window and a couple of inevitable losses wipe out them and they then blame the machine. There are a lot of profitable methods on FF, but it is not about only the system, it is everything else.

    Oh wait, do you think the so called Holy grail is not suppose to have any losses? LOL LOL.

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