Thread: Economic Analysis VS Market Action

For BANK OF CANADA interest rate today....expect on grip....but since jobless rate really good then 25bps rate increase still in contact for today...
but
when I looking back to the final rate increase on jun-sept 2010 I see their motive for the increase I out of the rebounding at economic activity on 2009 following the financial crisis....
Because MARK CARNEY at that time is grade A governor...I believe he should have a reason for this rate increase....

And also for today....we have Governor Poloz.... Till today I wait for his first move to get hiking rate if only he more concern about lowering unemployment rate....if he concern with growth and price stability he may hold the rate...

1. For BOE im not expect any shock by BOE since we have Carney's forward advice....but I think traders will focus more on UK Autumn Forecast for further sign on economy....

2. For ECB, Today ECB interest rate im expect on hold at 0.25% since we see great information in inflation and jobless ate last month after rate reduction take effect....
But since many of the ECB's members nevertheless verbal about potential ”adverse rate” then Draghi remark will be important to focus for next ECB sign....
Im expect ECB will not fix rate till FED QE tapering or till Q1 2014 end....


3. US economy GDP are also among the most important figure to watch since we suppose if the FED wish to emphasise....
If great GDP then we want to see tomorrow NFP jobless rate....if equally great then taper potential in December,...

Seeing Uk Autumn Report,BOE,Draghi US GDP very closely. .

Originally Posted by ;

1.For BOE im not anticipate any surprise by BOE since we've Carney's forward guie....but I think traders will concentrate more on UK Autumn Forecast for additional signal on economy... 2. For ECB, Today ECB interest rate im anticipate on hold in 0.25% since we see great information in inflation and jobless ate last month after rate cut take effect.... But since many of the ECB's members nevertheless verbal about potential ”negative rate” afterward Draghi remark will be important to focus for next ECB sign.... Im expect ECB won't fix rate until FED QE tapering or till...

Rate cut impact ? Shifts in monetary policy, while perhaps having a faster impact than previously, can nevertheless take between six and 12 months to make their presence very felt.There is a lag between economic advancement and rate decrease. We are not likely to see growth any stronger tomorrow than it was yesterday

Alright then. . .today US GDP good. . .if tomorow job great then december touch~~~

my opinion on AUD...

Japan's GPIF to generate investment with overseas public pension fund....
It means they'll sell yen and buy different currencies...

Well if GPIF want to invest in Overseas fund according to their past Trade most Likely flows Will Probably be into USD,EUR and GBP-it is better to keep an eye on EUR/JPY AND GBP/JPY crosses

SP enhances its U.S. growth forecast....
hmmm....please dont spoil the taper mr SP!!!

Following the bargain on US budget, Tapering is round the corner!

I think....today SNB announcement will reitarate to shield the CHF with utmost conviction....if no real surprise announcement now. . .we could see 1.2 eur per chf soon....and that the 1.2 cap will probably be at risk. . .soon