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Thread: Economic Analysis VS Market Action

  1. #11
    Japan LDP Tax Chief: Virtually All Tax Panel Members Expressed Support for Sales Tax Hike as Planned.. .watching usd/jpy

  2. #12
    Wonderful call on the Nikkei, it could go further as overseas investors start looking at it too. Foreign investment in the Nikkei index has quite a different impact on JPY than local investment though - by an intermarket perspective I find that the Yen very difficult to read. It reacts to changes in equity and bond markets similarly to USD but at a very different tempo.

    At the moment is chy too - problem in the west is bullish JPY as a secure haven but increasing oil prices due to the battle are bearish JPY. Abe has sworn to drive it even lower but forces are working equities pulling back from all time highs are threatening widespread deleveraging back into the yen. He seems to be waiting out the current uncertainty to discover a better time to get his next push, likely wise IMO.

  3. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Nice call on the Nikkei, it might go further as overseas investors start looking at it as well. Foreign investment at the Nikkei index has quite a different impact on JPY than local investment though - by an intermarket perspective that I find that the Yen very difficult to read. It reacts to changes in equity and bond markets similarly but in a rate. Right now is chy too - trouble in the west is bullish JPY as a safe haven but rising oil prices due to the conflict are bearish JPY. Abe has promised to drive it even lower but forces are...
    kindly overlook. . .the impliion when tapering is completed was...

    1. tapering done. . .usd deman for dollar rise. .
    2. Then us ought to hiking the rate
    3. With rate differential us is higher than japan..it will make demand for dollar to get caary trade...


    hence usd/jpy will upward long term....this all only legitimate if no syrian war..huhu

  4. #14
    because techincal still not overbought yet....
    And market nevertheless price for your QE tapering ... Japan's will provide more stimulus in the event the tax hike ....Japanese yen #JPY could weaken to test 105 soon ...
    logically traders soon will loosen the yen to generate a carry trade for usd/jpy again to acquire the rate differential profit since soon US will hike rate again and japan will provide reduced rate for long term ....watching...(notice:all occasion will erase if syrian war resurface)


  5. #15
    I never managed to interpret fundamentals, hence kept it away from my trading. Now your interpretation is very good indeed, I am able to see the picture you are presenting I am able to include this fundamental into my trading efficiently. Technically too, UsdJpy is bullish if fundamental supports it, then it will be easy task to make money. You're doing fantastic job, please keep it coming...I will often post comments, but I'm having very keen interest on your blog, so dont stop this ever.

    Thank you for fundamental analysis.

    Cheers!

  6. #16
    valid for all those non muslim..hahaha

    for carry trade behavior....my standpoint NZD buyers will probably soar since 2014 rate and so forth will make investor profit when not from nzd aprreciation afterward it'll be from interest rate different from RBNZ vs BOJ....


  7. #17
    euro can stumble anytime soon. . .this is my reason base on fundamental technical. . .at least to check 1.3


  8. #18
    Will Mark Carney suprise us again in inflation hearing UK today . . .watching GBP behaviour

  9. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    euro can stumble anytime soon. . .this is my reason base on fundamental technical. . .at least to check 1.3 picture
    Hi, nice summary. What does dovish mean?

  10. #20
    The Bureau of Labor Statistics previously said it'd require three working days to prepare the non-farm payrolls report after the authorities reopens...

    since US gov open tomoorow... I expect NFP to release on next week...

    but just compute....how much deficit accumulate for your shutdown??? It'll drive the market shortly...

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