I agree with the general assessment below.
-- Itme
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Economy Minute
'No matter what anyone says,' that the December 6 lead editorial in The NY] Times insists, the dollar is doomed. The editorial echoes a similar one in the Times on April 2, 2005. Back then, the Elliott Wave Financial Forecast noticed that such a forceful prediction from a social networking outlet is extremely rare and a strong contrarian signal. The [Dollar] index reacted with a 10% rally...
-- http://www.elliottwave.com/s.asp?cn=....aspx?code=oco, January 2007 problem (online today.)
lt;table border=0 cellpadding=0 cellspacing=0 width=575gt; lt;tbodygt;lt;trgt;lt;td valign=topgt;The USD: A 'Technical Rally'?
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lt;/tdgt; lt;tdgt; By Vadim Pokhlebkin lt;/tdgt; lt;/trgt; lt;tr height=12gt; lt;td height=12 width=6gt;
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lt;/tdgt; lt;td class=EC_article valign=topgt;Since the start of the year -- only a week! -- that the U.S. dollar has gained over two percent against the euro. Last Friday (Jan. 5), it even broke under the plogically important $1.30 amount for the first time in 2 weeks.
That is quite a change from early December, Once the EURUSD was pushing $1.3350. Critics say that the rate got that high in the first place because of the change in the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy. They've kept the rates suspended at 5.25% since July, and may even cut them going forward -- and, goes the conventional wisdom, is bad news for your buck.
Yet the USD has been gaining. And have you ever noticed any time fundamental explanations start to fail like this, the Foreign Exchange press turns to the less conventional explanations -- such as a technical decrease, for example?
That is what they said yesterday (Jan. 8), if the EURUSD dipped under $1.30 again. Dollar Drops From Six-Week High on Selling at Technical Levels, said one headline. Apparently, some foreign central banks bought back the European money at a key so-called technical level -- specifically, $1.2980, the very top of their European currency's trading range from April through late November last year.
Why would that cost be significant? Certainly no fundamental reasons for this: It has got nothing to do with the economy, or even the Fed, or even some of that. The one thing that cost level had to do with was mass plogy. In other words, a high quality of the previous trading range -- a line on a graph! -- has been perceived by Foreign Exchange traders as a good point to purchase.
Do not attempt to find a logical explanation here there's not any. It was a purely emotional conclusion on behalf of those marketplace players yesterday. And wouldn't you know it, Elliott wave investigation saw it coming a mile away. As early as 2:30 a.m. on Monday, in the center of the overnight trading session, EWI's http://www.elliottwave.com/s.asp?cn=...aspx?code=fofo published this intraday update and graph:
02:32 ET/07:32 GMT
[EURUSD] Last Cost: 1.3013
Weakness from 1.3296 is seen as a five-star selling sequence late in development that probably ends in response to a new low beneath 1.2982. Interim upside possibility above 1.3022 is probably quite limited whilst waiting for this next leg down to start...
http://www.elliottwave.com/images/ez...o 1-8-07.gif
One more low beneath 1.2982 was precisely what we have on Monday. After a brief rally, this morning that the EURUSD was again hovering near $1.30, like seeking direction. Well, earlier or later, it finds it...
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