Thread: Bitcoin technical analysis

PA has gradually edged across the base of this Fibonacci Fan TL. Assessing the wave formations today I detect that PA because late April seems ery much like a triangle for subwave b of tide B. Price could make yet another low (in wave ebook of this triangle) before breaking out to the upside in 5 waves. The strength of the structure of these waves and this thrust must give some clues regarding the intentions of PA.

With that said, there is still the prospect of enormous downside. I haven't revealed that this on the chart, since it could look hystrionic!
Present PA down from the label b (late May) could be the first 2 waves of a 5w wave C. Instead of the upward move labelled 2 rather than d along with c the structure that was 5w down would be labelled 1 inside this count. The chance of this count is bolstered by the fact that wave 2 (d on the chart)'d retraced 61.8% of wave 1 (c all on the chart). If this count is true we may see BTCUSD under $50 in strong sell-off!

Yet, for now I'm sticking with the count shown in blue on the chart below.

http://ubuntuone.com/5hR7eJnwjBzTGMWwcIYBFV

Pin bar forming at 80 on the daily after a push down. Time to enter. On the Lookout for 120

Anything below 70/60/50 is a buying opportunity.
Folks are currently dumping bitcoin becase of a movement failure into higher prices. I will keep happening.
The lively is like this:
Price drops.
people buy.
Folks hold for a while waiting for price to go up.
IF it doesnt happen for a while, people will get fed up and ditch their holdings again.
Price moves into a new low
and repeat the identical process.

It'll end when prices rally away from it. Then we can see some piick on quantity and volatily .
I belive if prices move up again media will begin to pay attention (again) and more folks will gather in. #volatility

Originally Posted by ;

To me anything below 70/60/50 is a buying opportunity. ... It'll finish when prices rally away from it. Then we can see some piick up on volatily and volume . I belive if prices goes up again press will start to pay attention (again) and more people will gather in. #volatility

Welcome Primadonna!

Check the forum rules (my standard first answer).

Interesting comments and good point about media attention. As @mineinaa also cites, we're entering a resistance region (potentially demand zone) below 70 and may have to see 50/55 tested as a prior non and 'psych' degree.

Strange the way the press have failed to comment on the recent highs. I think when we start seeing articles about Bitcoin collapse and Bitcoin gloom in addition to names expressing negativity, then the contrarian buy signal will seem!

Hi Venzen

Really interesting thread Actually
Very instructive, Continue the Fantastic work
(I am Fatima Rugatu, I also follow your threads there)

Cheers

Originally Posted by ;

quote Hello . But if you find these 'bitcoin demotivationals' and price is dropping then its becase dumb money is leaving the market, a fantastic buy opportunity. You'd like to exchange on the term its win, with dumb people.

Deary me... that's so. . so heartless!

Thank you for the headsup heartless as you can see from PA we are heading for another downtrend.

Originally Posted by ;

Hi Venzen Really interesting thread really Very instructive, keep on the good work (I'm Fatima Rugatu, I also follow your threads) Cheers

Hello Fatima! Great to see you here! Yes, I have been preoccupied with other transactions for the previous couple of months and my activity at Rugatu has been, well, zero. As mentioned, I shall email you!

Right, due to the banks we've got a good deal for our wavecount. TA this weekend is intense with everything happening following the FOMC non-event, therefore I must get busy with tasks in numerous charts. I am not going to discuss some analysis except to mention this: BTCUSD is going down in 3 waves and could reach the preceding lows from the 60s price range. Let's see what lows then update the count and publish. The bounce off the floor could send Bitcoin north to follow Gold along with the USD in the coming rates era.

http://ubuntuone.com/5mfwrCEJNKtsUdfgaDAXBQ

I'm curious about the liquidity in this market and why anyone would trade it if there are liquid options out there (like national currencies)

I can't imagine there is even a billion in daily turn within


Although is not the basic assumption behind bitcoin is that it ought to appreciate over time because the coins become harder and more difficult to mine?




Anyhow, I'm convinced the best way to exchange bitcoin is simply to look at the USDx.
Still. . Not seeing the point


Good luck with it! It might be a far bigger market daily.

Originally Posted by ;

I'm interested about the liquidity in this market and why anybody would ever trade it if there are liquid options on the market (like national currencies) I can not imagine there is even a billion in daily exchange over Though isn't the basic premise behind bitcoin is that it should value over time because the coins become harder and harder to mine? I'm sure the best approach to exchange bitcoin is just to have a look at the USDx. Still. . Not seeing the purpose Good luck with it though! It could be a market daily.

Hi R2R and welcome,

You raise a Fantastic point. The liquidity is tiny as well as the market is immature but that has its own advantages:

1) sudden predictability in the PA standpoint in addition to textbook adherence to classic indior adjustment signals
2) the main trade Mt Gox charges a commission on buys (but maybe not on sells) and that is all it costs to participate - you will find no account fees, the access for their feed and its API is free of charge and there are no intermediaries: buy and sell BTC and convert into fiat currencies as you wish. Transactions are instantaneous whenever you wish and you can transfer your holdings all into your desktop.
3) volatility (for its nimble and quick)

It's not really a traditional trade tool - that the buy commission and lack of short selling makes intraday trade unprofitable, instead I see it like a longterm buy-and-hold wealth shop On shirts I convert Bitcoins into USD and at bottoms buy BTC again and again possibly add.

Longterm that the Bitcoin should love strongly (if there is demand) or fade away into the dustbin of history. But I believe that the arguments in favor of appreciation are more powerful than those in favor of disuse and worth a couple of hundred dollars speculation.

BTW - to my eyes it doesn't link to the USD index and charts more like a stock - look at the online startup bubble around April!