Trade Anatomy - ramblings of an old-timer
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Thread: Trade Anatomy - ramblings of an old-timer

  1. #1
    Hello everybody.

    (The forum has changed structure somewhat as I hailed it so that I shall post this thread in the Rookie Discussion forum but, moderators, please put it elsewhere in the event that you deem fit).

    I have made the decision to begin a thread here in FF. I'll do my best to keep it lively and updated but please bear in mind that I'm older, easily distracted and prone to continent-hopping

    My previous trip to FF saw me eventually enroll as a forum as I was heartily encouraged by the task of Feb in his'The System' thread. Then I briefly contributed some examples of how I commerce and this appeared to be well received. In accore with my character traits I warned you about a minute ago, I then forgot to log in for one more year or more!

    Anyway, I returned the other day and discovered that I had a few messages waiting in my inbox from a while ago. I tried to answer the queries raised as helpfully as I could but it struck me that it was highly probable that others here could benefit from asking the very same questions and discussing similar scenarios. I have sought consent from one of the people who messaged me to re-create our conversation here in people. I'm pleased to say he has consented.

    This can be Introductory Ramble #1... please indulge me by studying Introductory Ramble #2 (next post) before I get down to business.

    Happy and profitable trading to all

    Kind regards,

    O N D

  2. #2
    91702Thank again HH

    Perhaps I need to write a novel - haha.

    Kind regards and keep up the great work,

    O N D

    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    O N D - perhaps not wanting to disrupt the flow of your new thread but just wanted to jump in and say it is good to see you began this. Though your style of trading seems to be quite different to my primary method, I will follow your thread as wisdom is shown by the previous post and you have a very'nice' style of writing which is frequently not viewed on FF! All of the best.

  3. #3
    91702You are welcome here - user title!

    I look forward to your contributions too.

    Kind regards,

    O N D

    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Dang it, another thread to follow. Oh, I've feeling this will be among an FF classic and the best ones. Subscribed and look forward to the journey. Thank you for sharing and contributing your knowledge.

  4. #4
    91702Hello Kiwi Trader - you are very welcome and I look forward to your contributions

    I was about to comment on your original post, to say I did not use Fibs. Then I watched your recent post (quoted below should I have the grasp of the tech!) And I believed that I should underline its sentence specifically.

    Pragmatism is one of the most valuable tools that a trader can have. The highlighted sentence demones this is understood by you.

    Concerning Fibs, a great many of my former coworkers used them religiously and they also were long-term seekers in this line of work. I would therefore never disapprove of them's consumer. For me personally, they add an unnecessary layer as a plain ole chart gives me.

    Kind regards,

    O N D

    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Any price action that indied resumption of the downward trend. Just a rest of the daily bar. Or a rest of the station up on hourly to give conviction that it actually broke.

    Ignoring fibs and 50% retracements SR is also interesting at this point. It's interesting if you look at a weekly chart that 8500-8600 is resistance which became encourage and is probably resistance again.

  5. #5
    91702Hello again Astellas

    all your scenarios are feasible. A few points I would like to make if I may:
    Look at the chart. What do you really see? What I see is... swing low on 25th May (11am UK time in my chart), swing high (26th May, 3pm UK time), swing low (26th May, 10pm UK time), swing top... the arrangement of these swing points indicate (on the hourly at the least ) the overall direction is UP. We'd be on the lookout for the next swing low to have in long if the hourly was being traded by us. Why? We believe we can ride because it's a trend. All about these lows, right? Well, no. Where taking what's in my mind and what I do becomes more difficult, and this is. Do not get bogged down with tide structure or EW in any detail but be aware of price goes. I am sure you know about urge waves and, if you don't, you can find lots of reading stuff to comprehend the basics. A knowledge is enough to alert us that a low has a reasonable prospect of being made soon and that a further impulse upwards may follow. We're awaiting'stage 4' of this sub-wave to be submitted and will ride the 5th leg, if you want to use language that is different. As Kiwi Trader cites, any price action that indicates... is an excellent mantra to bear in mind. I must admitI asked you to think with no care about if you would comprehend the price movement of that instrument. I asked for another 3 scenarios, if my memory serves me well. When I asked you to supply another 3 within another 24 hours I am sure you could. The purpose? Potential scenarios are limitless. Never get too emotionally attached to them. I am aware my point will illicit fruion. I have no interest in becoming a sage that is mysterious, using a collection of acolytes who frantically try to read between the lines of my musings; I will deliberately be obscure if I believe it can help to improve the comprehension of people who ask questions. I will deal with Dollar/Yen in my next article (you're keeping me occupied, haha) but let us temporarily get the query about fundamentals dealt with. When I was employed as a trader, I might have taken part in economic summits rather than felt out of place or intimidated. Was my trading profession assisted by this depth of comprehension? At the years, I guess it did. Why? Since it enabled me to spout the bullshit required to climb the greasy pole. It enabled me to have informed input in discussions with movers and shakers and also to be understood as more than only a floor fighter. When I became my own boss, the custom remained. I'd keep up to date on the financial state of affairs of the nations that are top and spend time not only absorbing information but writing opinion pieces for use inside my company. It would be untruthful of me to say that I have any fundamental appreciation since I am geniunely interested in the entire world economic picture. This is partly due to my business pursuits and partly due to my interest in the topic. It does however have very little to do with my trading rankings. Trade what you see. Such a cliche perhaps but follow it and you'll do fine. The chart tells me what I want to understand about how every nation is viewed internationally on any certain. I make sure I am aware of when news releases are and which are the possible market movers but this is to give me a deeper comprehension of price action rather than to allow me to make a fundamental perspective of a currency. As I trade duration charts a price spiking upward or down because of a news release is my signal to ignore that segment of this chart. I appreciate this can't possibly be the case for shorter-term traders nevertheless. Another ramble out of me. I might post some ideas on USDJPY or I may have to wait. I will see how my energy and free-time balance out themselves.

    I want you all a great rest of this weekend.

    Kind regards,

    O N D



    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    It's the sign of a good tutor who gets his students to answer their own questions.

    Scenarios:

    [size=3][font=Times New Roman]1. Retrace to 0.8360 and enter long. Look for counter-trend trade on return to 0.8360. Entry will be long at this degree. Indiion for entry is going to be PA at this degree over a timeframe that is lower. I would also consider a entry using a tight stop below the pub which broke the degree, at this level. Reasons Why...

  6. #6
    91702OND,

    In the interests of a different scenario and a question I attach this film.

    Http://charts.dacharts.net/2010-05-29/kw5.gif

    You suggest the chance of this tide being impulsive and thus likely to have 3 or more thrusts until it runs out of steam at this level.

    I wonder if a different scenario is the fact that it's the retracement of a bigger impulse down and thus might just be an ABC. If that's the event the termination of the 3LIs round the stage where AB = CD (the scattered purple lines on my chart) would reinforce that view.

    I note though that an impulsive scenario could generate a small gain in the new high and might come to an end around SR at 8660 to 8700 odd.

    Apologies if bringing this in to your ribbon is a little too much fibtrusion and I am pleased not to repeat it. However, I wonder if you believe such matters either semi-consciously or more specifically on your trading? Since I discover that undershoots and overshoots are too important for me to get much from 27, FWIW I don't like the AB = CD when I read the mention of impulse waves, but I wondered about it.

  7. #7
    91702Hello again Kiwi Trader

    I thought I had best answer this fairly quickly to prevent us getting off-track. The fault demones the importance of language and is entirely mine. I had been wrong to use the term'impulse wave' as this phrase has connotations that aren't applicable to the chart in question.

    To clarify, my thinking was that we're waiting for an hourly swing low on the instrument before another move upward. Whether we resume the larger trend downward is anybody's guess. The example was to let Astellas to consider the very simple function of trendlines and swing highs/lows and that I used the hourly to demone a illustration.

    I've attached a chart that speaks for itself in terms of wave structure, I expect. I'm relieved to say we won't be going into any more detail on the subject in this thread as it is not something that I consciously make use of and that I think a trader should definitely leave controlling wave patterns until well when they have an intuitive appreciation of the price structure within charts.

    I love that you're stimulating questions though - please do not stop

    Currently, here's that chart, haha...


  8. #8
    91702Hi O N D

    Thank You for starting up this thread! Now if I would I'd like to sidetrack a bit from price anatomy discussion and seek your advice on the topic.

    Ever since I started trading forex I've been facing the following issue: should I concentrate my efforts on a few seleted pairs or should I observe as many pairs as possible and trade the very best installments?

    The primary camp advoes that each currency pair has its own distinctive behavior and a beginner trader should concentrate and find out one or at both pairs at a time, until he understands all the bolts and nuts of these pairs (how do they usually proceed, what cause them to move, etc).

    The second camp thinks the kind of a setup is much more important. They'll always scan a lot of pairs and exchange only those which offer the very best installments (according to price action, S/R, Fib, etc).

    As a novice trader who would like to understand your style of trading, then I'd very much need to hear the view and opinions from a seasoned trader. Thanks!

  9. #9
    91702Hello again fthingf

    Fruingly, the answer to this question is it depends.

    There is a great deal of benefit attached to learning the particular nuances of individual devices. I have on occasions experienced the rather bizarre and frightening (but extremely profitable) sensation of being so very much'in tune' with a market so flawlessly that I am certain I know the long run. Tough to do justice to the way this sensation that is other-worldly is but the best way I could explain it would be to say it like you merge with the tool and experience every moment. I won't blame anybody who thinks I am senile after sharing that, haha.

    The pragmatic benefit of specialising is you are not needing to envision between charts all the time and you've got more of a grasp of what is growing. Knowing that price structure indicates a bearish change in EUR/USD or a greater high will probably be in brings clarity when people are the only markets being traded. Trying to maintain a grasp of 12 markets in this way is impossible.

    On the opposite side of the coin, we owe it to ourselves to get the best setups and only putting in the effort of appearing at several charts can optimise finding them. I've a buddy who is a first-rate stock trader and he has a piece of software that lets him revisit something such as 2000 global stock charts daily. The program cycles through every chart and enables him to instantly suspend it when he places. His expertise makes it possible for him though as he is able to discard charts in a matter of moments.

    Learning to respond to the arrangement of price history is a superbly transferrable skill. Learning about it trading oil or wheat or the SP or Cable makes no distinction as becoming proficient allows you to trade. Learning takes time and we are slower at analysing what we see originally. We are also likely completely miss elements that are valid or to misinterpret.

    Thus, to prevent rambling much more, I shall reluctantly supply you with a straightforward answer that goes beyond it depends

    Stick using no more than 3 instruments until your operation is constant along with your trading hours are completely dull. You might decide to stick with these initial markets for your entire trading profession or maybe you decide to research further markets and cherry select your trades from a wider pool of options.

    If you stick to 1 or two markets you've got the opportunity to play with all kinds of little games that educate you so much that can serve you for years to come. For example:
    Predict the color of the next two candles. Will it be UP-DOWN. . DOWN-UP. . UP-UP... DOWN-DOWN? Predict the range for the next 4 hourly pubs. Try to pinpoint another swing high/low to within 50 pips. Forecast where price will be at 17:00GMT and create the prediction no more. All these games will seem frivilous however, at worst, will show you how hard forecasts are also to filling your time whilst waiting on setups. At best you will learn a great deal. After reviewing your predictions and comparing them with what the market really ended up doing, you will be assimilating a picture of market behaviour that many traders will require to inherit, if they ever do at all.

    Another good reason for limiting the markets that you see at first is that you don't need to have a financial interest at a market to watch it. A lot of traders are only interested in a market whilst they have a position. That is totally legitimate but it poses a problem; especially for inexperienced/unsuccessful traders. They get stopped out or panic and close their position, If they usually move on to another prospect. Is not there much to be learned from maintaining watching the exact same market? Did the situation neglect? Were you too premature? Did you read it wrong? Did you do everything but the market simply moved against probabilities? What happens to price in the time after a breakout? What occurs when a greater high is submitted but a low that is lower follows? A trader who doesn't stick around to see what happens next and wins based on these scenarios is missing out about the eduion the market is currently providing.

    By all means, raise markets watched and reevaluate as you advance though. For people who trade daily or weekly charts only, it would be silly to stick with 2 or 3 instruments if your method was consistently profitable when conditions implemented. Let us say you needed a breakout system that was 50% successful and winners were 2% bigger than losers. The only means you may drive home that advantage is by either trading large size or frequency that is large. Similar to a casino - a few surgeries opt for rollers that are large and a few opt for low value/high volume. Trading will be the same - use it continually and mercilessly, after you've got an advantage.

    Another ramble over. Thank you to this question and I look forward to your gifts

    Kind regards,

    O N D

    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Hi O N D

    Thank you for starting this thread up! If I might I would love to sidetrack a little from price human anatomy discussion and seek your advice.

    Ever since I started trading forex I have been facing the next dilemma: if I focus my efforts on a few seleted pairs or if I see as many pairs as possible and trade the best installments?

    The very first camp advoes that every currency pair has its distinctive behavior and a novice trader should focus and learn one or at most two pairs at a time, until he knows all...

  10. #10
    91702
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Only a remark. I personally have a prejudice on AUD for a couple weeks because I believe the AUD to have gone in response to uncertainty; I believe the stock markets are likely to rise during the next few months in at least an effort at a new high; and consequently AUD would rise or hold. However, my biases are proven meaningless, therefore it's going to be the market's movements that dictate my actions.
    Thanks Kiwi Trader

    It will be an interesting exercise to track the PA on the Aussie in the upcoming days.

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