Thread: Trade Anatomy - ramblings of an old-timer

917021 Structure (s)

Originally Posted by ;

A rudimentary knowledge is enough to alert us to the fact that a higher low has a reasonable chance of being made fairly shortly and that a further impulse up may accompany. We're awaiting'point 4' of this sub-wave to be submitted and will ride the 5th leg, if you would like to use different language

Thank you OND.

If I understand you correctly you're implying to look out for something like in the chart below, and await PA to provide the heads up to get a long entrance around point 4. I am also conscious of the trendline, which this may act as support around the 38.2 fib, or might act as resistance if price bounces off the 0.8360 level.

91702Absolutely.

Also, look at that leg and recall exactly what I said concerning ster charts and the statistical trend which we should mentally add to the chart. Recall what I mentioned previously about a move and before resuming the pace of increase/decrease getting ahead of itself. This is a signpost that there will be additional moves in this direction more often than not.

I love this is seemingly rather basic and might even appear that I am stating the obvious. However, trading has become so exceptionally and unnecessarily complex that newer traders believe that they must be extremely smart and locate convoluted methods of exploiting price movement. The truth is quite far removed from such a mindset. I discovered a young chap with the name PeterCrowns, a former pit trader, published the inside bar method he has used for years. The simplicity of the kind of trading (a style which will be applicable for infinity most likely) probably makes less experienced traders cynical as they have spent a lot of money and time looking for a killer system.

OK. This ramble is over I promised I'd post some ideas about Dollar-Yen following your request so I'll do this next.

Kind regards,

O N D

Originally Posted by ;

Thank you OND.

So if I understand you correctly you are implying to be on the watch for something as in the chart below, and await PA to provide the heads up to get a lengthy entry around stage 4. I am also conscious of the trendline, and that this may act as support around the 38.2 fib, or may act as resistance if price bounces off the 0.8360 degree.

91702 Astellas created some things pertaining to the Dollar-Yen per day chart. See below for a visual.

As he points out, a higher low was posted (Feb 2010 - first low Nov 2009). Should we be on alert to trying to get in and anticipate a move upwards? For me personally, no.

Mentally linking those two lows with a trendline (fully acknowledging it is not a'proper' trendline as it is just joining two points) tells me that price arrangement is really still bearish. My view would be that, at best, the tool has demonstrated an unwillingness to extend the decrease - however.

Zoom in over the previous 9 or 10 weekly bars and you'll note that the two largest candles are bearish. Many traders may have viewed the candle with the reduced wick as a bullish signal but should now have changed their minds as the candles don't support the concept.

Of course, we can go up from here. Price does and can go anywhere it pleases, however illogical it seems sometimes in technical conditions. I would not be betting on it though. That large lower wick I mentioned... such candles are, justifiably, viewed as a rejection of lows. Have a look at hundreds of these candles and you need to discover that this is bullish. What comes next tells you whether or not price will bounce up from that point. Testing those lows is a sign that price is going to be headed there soon but there isn't sufficient appetite/momentum to go yet.

The other point I want to create for Astellas is that he's perfectly right to aim to get into more tendencies. Bear in mind though that trading out of a chart requires a risk appetite that many can't financially or emotionally manage. Trades can't be as precise and require more wiggle room. I've kept things so far, looking at entry and single exit situations. When I trade from the charts, I consider myself to have X amount of bullets. I will ease into a trend and might want to shoot four or five bullets before I start to see some outcomes.

Drill down to the daily Dollar-Yen chart and the picture will likely look very different. The highs out of 4th March and 6th May appear to me to be screaming out to be analyzed again imminently. If I had been considering trading this, I'd be looking forming and riding price down for another go at getting under 88. Drill down further to the hourly chart and you'd likely notice that a breach of 90.60 would be a fantastic sign we are headed down.

Thus, converting this into a fundamental trade program, we have: brief below 90.60... monitor price around 88.40... move to 91.60 tells me I'm wrong.

Notice how I haven't stated Target is X, Stop reduction is Y. Doing so isn't invalid and matches many traders but I'd rather watch price structure developing than be rigid about where I jump away.

This transaction program, in stiff form remains perfectly fine. Risking around 100 pips for a potential benefit of 200. The R:R traders would not complain about that. For me and I repeat myself many times, risk:benefit limits my trading and creates a dangerous arrogance I have an edge. I might have said my goal was 86 area. A prospective benefit of 400 pips - great? Well, of course not, on what foundation is price likely to go there? Me hoping it will so I will rest assured I've picked a trade and have a ratio that is great?

A lot of traders will want to trade with pre-prescribed stops and goals and that is understandable. I would never encourage a trader to trade without any stops. Please be mindful when using R:R that itcan breed complacency and 's highly aspirational , in my own view.

OK. This ramble is done

Kind regards,

O N D

91702Hi OND,

Thank you for the superb thread I've a question regarding fiesability of a few situations around the USD/CHF, if you'll excuse me I won't post a chart.

The weekly and daily charts indicate the price is hitting resistance, in the current 1.1587 mark. Therefore a brief entry under weeks reduced at 1.1471 seems appealing.

My next scenario would be a buy on rest of this the 1.1920 mark (9 Mar high)

On the brief trade scenario (althouh I would likely exit before this) if there was a smooth ride down to 1.045 I'd trade outside, and tenant if the price broke the preceding support.

On a buy trade I would plan an exit if the price hit the 1.23 mark, using a reentry if the price breaks 1.2315

I'd love any thoughts you have on those, and I hope you can find the time to keep this thread going, though noone might blame you for getting distracted by your own galavanting.

Thanks,

Pete

91702

Originally Posted by ;

Absolutely.

Additionally, look at that first leg and recall what I mentioned about ster charts and the statistical trend we should mentally add to the chart. Recall what I mentioned previously then and trending prior to restarting the rate of increase/decrease getting. This is a signpost that there will be moves in this way.

Hi OND

Pleased your energy levels have been holding up, in actuality, it#8217;s us thread subscribers fighting to keep up with you! Please, keep it coming

you've said that the ster concept twice now and I just want to make sure I have grasped it properly. Chart one shows a ster chart of the 4 hour time frame which you mentioned in post 6. I have plotted a line directly through the center of the dates you cited (red circles). Have I plotted the #8216;fanciful line#8217? Are you speaking to this interval after the 2nd red circle as being the #8216;non-orderly#8217; interval, or are you speaking to the ster chart points which are the additional distance from the line during the dates you cited (between the 2 red circles) as being the non-orderly period. It#8217;s just that price bounces back in both the period prior to the 2nd red ring, and also after it (although to a far greater degree), so I want to ensure I know which section of PA on the chart you're referring to if you say #8216;bouncing back to an orderly location #8217;.

In chart 2 I have also plotted the ster chart and #8216;imaginary#8217; lineup for the AUDUSD as per you your suggestion in post 31. Have I got this right? If so, this suggests that price could possibly be due a bounce .

Your USDJPY post provides some remarkable insight to the way you browse PA.. I think I#8217;m going to see this post a few more times before commenting to ensure every thing is digested by me there.

Kind regards,

91702 Glad my energy levels are holding up Astellas - existence in the old dog yet perhaps!

Yes, you now know ster graph concept perfectly fine. the exact same intent is served by a trendline I wouldn't get overly hung up on it. Your assertion that the Aussie may be due down another move could be achieved by a quick look at the chart or simply by drawing a trendline or adhering to the statistical general leadership.

I have tried to attach a much better example of this point I was making. From the chart attached you'll observe that the initial decline was orderly (price followed the upper channel line down ) and then the decrease got a bit ahead of itself if a sharp move to the lower channel lineup happened. Then it got back on course after price either moved sideways to wait to be reached or retraced to meet it, before continued in the direction of this trend.

Kind regards,

O N D

Originally Posted by ;

Hi OND

Pleased your energy levels are holding up, in reality, it's us thread subscribers fighting to keep up ! Please, keep it coming

[size=3][font=Times New Roman]You've mentioned the ster concept twice now and I just want to make sure I have grasped it properly. Chart one shows a ster graph of the 4 hour time frame on the EUR/USD that you mentioned in article 6. I have plotted a.. .

91702OND

Thank you for sharing this with us.

I continue following this thread and article charts I am prepared to learn from you.

Due

O N D

91702Welcome into the ribbon,

I anticipate your participation.

Kind regards,

O N D

Originally Posted by ;

OND

Thank you for sharing this with us.

I keep on following this thread and post charts I'm willing to learn from you.

Thanks

O N D

91702

Originally Posted by ;

Stick with no more than 3 instruments until your performance is constant along with your trading hours are entirely boring...

Thank you for the comprehensive advice. Specialising it is... Now you have spoken I will admit that this strategy is my own personal bias also!

Originally Posted by ;

Predict the next two candles' colour. Will it be UP-DOWN. . DOWN-UP. . UP-UP... DOWN-DOWN? Predict the range for the next 4 hourly pubs. Attempt to pinpoint another swing high/low to 50 pips. Forecast where price will be at 17:00GMT and make the forecast no later than 13:00GMT.

I will definitely give this workout a try. By the way I understand why you enjoy stop loss that is broad: you are seldom wrong with your predictions!

Originally Posted by ;

Another fantastic reason for limiting the markets you watch at first is that you don't need to have a monetary interest in a market to watch it...

Another fantastic piece of wisdom. I would have never thought by limiting the markets.

I'm glad I did ask this question.

91702

Originally Posted by ;

Glad my energy levels are holding up Astellas - life in the old dog yet perhaps!

Yes, you know ster graph concept absolutely handsome....

Simplicity in the cost of precision is no bargain.
I would like this:



Two flags (vertical runs together with side triangles connected to the top of these ) appear in the fashion before the one you cover. Drawing on a TL that's traditional, that is in a row, from them clarifies the trend and, at least in part, the main reason behind the trend. The side area highlighted with the yellow box is intersected with the trend, and, a little further on the chart, another one just like it seems. Guess The other TL, when extended, run in precisely the exact same point through it.
Interpolate the whole chart as waving through both of these TL's (which needs another chart study to disclose it), and you realize that the area after the intersection of both of these yellow-boxed side patterns also behave equally.