By Shawn-Elyse Tulac

As is the case with other markets such as commodities, forex demones patterns of seasonal behavior that can be traded. These calendar patterns differ from pair to pair on account of the dynamics of these currencies involved. In this article, the Yen (JPY) are the focus. (Note: The charts and data in this article include the study report http://www.andurilonline.com/cmd.asp?Clk=1424486.)


Monthly Patterns

If a person first takes a look at the market from a monthly view, it can be seen that USD/JPY along with the JPY-based crosses have months where they demone apparent tendencies. Figure 1 outlines this. The graph takes a month-by-month look at USD/JPY since 1999 (seven years complete ), which encapsulates time since the introduction of the year, an important watershed moment in the forex market. Each pub indies up the net month to month studying. As an instance, a reading of 5 indies that there were 6 up years for this month rather than just down one year, from the seven


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a fast glance at the chart indies that there are a couple weeks where USD/JPY has been strongly biased in 1 direction or the other. The example is August, the month where the market has been down each year since 1999. During this moment, USD/JPY fell for the month at least 137 pips each time around, with most of the declines coming in at better than 200 pips. The average has been 320 pips, which is 2.80%.

January and July also jump out. They have seen USD/JPY increase. The results for July, however, are fairly unexciting. The market's average increase has only bee roughly 35 pips, whereas the average increase for January has been almost 200 pips.


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in the instance of EUR/JPY, as one might expect, August is a constant down month, though there's been one up month as 1999. The average decline has been over 300 pips. November has been equally biased to the upside down concerning the 6:1 ratio, but the rise is only 77 pips. The month that is intriguing is December. The market rose every year from 2000 to 2004. Even though it fell in 2005, the cross has averaged a 350 pip increase.


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Like EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY shows very strong directional tendencies in August and December with an average drop of over 600 pips in August and an average gain of 435 pips to end the year. Sterling has a fascinating tendency in September, which is reflected from the cross using JPY for this month. Specifically, GBP/JPY has climbed six from seven years at an average rate of almost 280 pips.