Thread: K.I.S.S. Method

I could be wrong but I don't believe EUR/USD is topping.

Well it looks like EUR/USD was topping (:....the market retraced 3 points so the original model I posted 2 weeks ago (***scenario1 on page 2) was right. I'll confess thats one of my problems a few times I draw a solid model and end up picking a newer one to exchange. My goal here is to try to view as many alternates as potential and its easy to get overwhelmed with all the different situations (in this case there were only 2 and it was difficult for me to choose the correct one). The target is to take all alternates seriously and then exchange the one that price action fits and in this specific situation as of the strong sell off on 1/03/07 scenario1 should have become my preferred model. Thats one of the great things about getting all of the signs posted up about the forums.... Predied on scenerio1 there was no doubt that there was a viable short this week around EUR/USD. Despite this evidence being clear as day posted on the forum I failed to heed it and missed a nice movement on EUR/USD. Whats the old saying a few people are able to understand the direction of th market and fail to create money. . .well that was me this week (:

There is something important about the 1/10/07 date though (scenerio 2 on page 3) thats one hell of a solid model and I am inclined to track that at this point because I think its likely to trigger some fantastic signals shortly... not to mention I am visiting potential for some action on GBP/USD. Potential we could even have a 78.6 retracement or so from the large. . .wouldn't surprise me to see new highs either. Thinking about the recent collapse in EUR/USD and GBP/USD I can not say I would wish to be short on both of these contracts now although I think there's potential for them to go lower. Probably best to wait for some time before entering any longer term transactions especially short.

SUMMARY

I need to upgrade my present versions and produce a few new alternates and thats going to take a while. I think the cycles have started to expand or contract slightly and I do not feel either of the versions I have posted now are best to be traded right now... There is definitley a strong posibility the USD/CHF could rally for one more week theres is also the chance of it reversing as of right now or tomorrow and falling to new lows from this point. . .if I needed to exchange either side I would seem to play it but for now I am uncomfortable with that so I choose to stand back until things become clearer. Thinking there's some importance to 1/10/07 and I think things will get clearer by then.

Will upgrade shortly!!

That is a highly accurate version that's been holding up nicely the past several months. . .It's based off an 18.5 week bicycle that's been prevalent in the USD/CHF. If I had to take positions on the market today my taste could be USD/CHF. Recently this models signals have been inverting and inversions, from my experience, are usually a sign of a strong underlying trend which in this case IMHO is down. If the version is right that the decline of this USD/CHF to new lows should start on or around the date of 1/19/2007 (my quote for an specific date of the high stands now between 1/16-1/ / 19/07). Presently long positions in the USD/CHF are preferred.

I'm no Dollar bear but I'm beginning to see significant signs of a major selloff going to begin is that the USD, and especially USD/CHF. I'm working on setting up a few distinct models as evidence confirming this concept. I'm getting strong signs that this drive to new lows in the USD/CHF and USD could begin as early as this week. One of those things I'm usure of is that the path that these markets will take for their new lows.

I'm seeing two distinct scenerios and I'm willing to bet 1 of these is going to be correct.

S1) The USD and USD/CHF B-line to new lows quite soon.

S2) The USD and USD/CHF retrace slightly in their current rallies then spike into a potent new high then B-line to new lows. I'm working on submitting several models that support these 2 concepts and 1 in particular.

Either way I think this will be an unbelievable oppurtunity. One of those analysts in Investica wrote this lately and I agree with what he is saying...I'm no fundamental expert because he but at the least, technically speaking, I'm seeing these as strong chances. I wish I had more insight into the fundamentals involved in this but for today I think the technicals will tell all if either of these scenerios happen.

There's the prospect of a further interest rate increase in March, but overall yield expectations will stay lower. Within this environment, the franc will stay vulnerable to selling pressure on yield grounds, particularly if there is continuing excitement for carry trades. The overall Swiss fundamentals will remain strong, however, and some other signs of poorer growth would boost caution within franc selling. Any sustained increase in risk aversion could also bring about substantial franc gains, particularly if there's a sharp rise in emerging-market tensions.

I believe EUR/USD is headed lower. The model I am presenting here is giving me scenerios. I'm highlighting them off my experience working with these models. This is a cyclical model incidentally.

1) A bottom for the present cycle IMHO hasn't been confirmed yet though it is fairly possible that this market has already found a bottom and its on its way up for a while (I simply can not buy this scenerio, but I am available to it... any technical or fundamental evidence you could provide supporting this view would help tremendously).

2)According to this model a short remains in place and we are meeting with very strong resistance right now on EUR/USD. If EUR/USD begins to fall, within the following week is a great time for it to happen technically. Shorting EUR/USD right now supplies a favorable swap due to this interest rate so it would appear a short would not be a bad play from this perspective either. My main guess is that this market will fall over the next 1-3 weeks.

When it does not then--we are in a rally for quite sometime (for some reason I just can not swallow that right now but its certainly a chance )

or (another strong chance )

3) we've got a situation which is common among these cyclcial models called an inversion. When an inversion happens the next signal the model triggers.... Which it should trigger quite soon within 1-3 weeks..which in this case is going to be a buy signal. . .will reverse and instead indie a major top is in place. That could cause a rally for another week or two after which a major drop would begin.

Whatever direction that market is about its going to move very quickly.

I will post my intraday models a little after to give you a much better view on this potential short I'm referrring to. Despite the weekly models are not as clear occasionally as the dailies and intradays I think its quite important to be aware of them. Once you figure out the per week your in great shape but some times (as now) it can get tricky but it is going to clear up.