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Thread: $ For The Week of 11/6-With Trade Ideas

  1. #11
    A trader interview on bloomberg just stated that cash is coming from bonds and into equities. What do you severe men think this means for your dollar?

  2. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    A trader interview on bloomberg just stated that cash is coming out of bonds and into equities. What do you severe guys think this means for your dollar?
    I believe what it means is that investors see more profit possible in equities then in bonds. Does not necessarily indie that equities are goin up though-traders can make bets either way...

  3. #13
    I wonder how much of the money is Johnny come late to the party guys Eager by the dows perfoprmance

  4. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    I wonder just how much of that cash is Johnny come late to the party men excited by the dows perfoprmance
    I really don't trade these markets myself-but that I intend to in the future. There is just nothin gonna occur in currencies now. The action is in stocks and indexes. If you are lookin to earn a buck trading, then it's not gonna happen in forex now.

    In case you're searching for amounts to hang your fur on-perhaps $70 oil is an important number:

    http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=2...Irefer=economyThe European Commission increased its forecast for economic growth next year and reduce its inflation prediction because oil prices hold under $70 a barrel in the dozen countries sharing the euro.

    Today I truly don't intend on missin which BoE announcement-maybe I will become very lucky there...

  5. #15
    Are we Viewing the Revenge of the Dollar?

  6. #16
    In my B0E thread-

    The NIESR has a GDP estimate to be published @ 19.01 EST-it will likely be the final word on this week's and the nest B0E rate policy. It could be a good report to exchange. It's estimated to emerge out .5 percent MoM basis-a reading above this could really provoke some GBP buying. The reading that is Sept was .4 percent MoM

  7. #17
    There's always a New Reality in Play

    Yeah, that's right. I was based on the fact that it closed it started. I had been thinking traders might be discounting the possibility of a BoE hike. There was some UK statistics and an article in BB stating a greater pound had hurt their exports. Then things changed.

    The new truth set in. The NIESR said growing GDP and a hike that was 2nd. That is the new thinking. That is how fast things change. Close the position out and receive. Because u took a position do not get your feelings hurt and it moved against you. Do not sit around moping and feeling sorry for cursing your luck yourself or the trading gods that appear to be against you personally. There's almost always a new reality and yet another transaction. The tide turns turn with this.

    How might you want to exchange the GBP?USD out of here? I might get all technical on you personally and discuss service and repliing patterns-but I really don't know about any of this so that I won't. I trade off the fundamentals and also the market percieves them. Right now London traders feel very certain that early next year, the BoE will raise the rate to 5.25.

    We have the mid term elections to get thru. I plan to stay on the sidelines thru that.

    When the election fall out passes (if there's any) I'd look to get a 30-50 point sell off in the GBP. I said look rather than trade-I'm not predicting this will occur. I am only noting that I've noticed this pattern repeat repeatedly in the last 2 weeks or so. If a sell off to this amount is observed, I think there's an superb chance London will buy again, but that of course is dependent on the current fundamentals (two BoE rate increases and no considerable US information) holding. If the sell off occurs and also the fundamentals hold, that sell off represents an superb chance to get long from the pound.

    If no sell-off occurs and London proceeds to buy. . .you might want to think about buying right along with them.

    I can not think of a better time to be a bull-you have one currency who is rate is going up 2 days and on that isn't going up at all-

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...TLTMrefer=home

  8. #18
    Update: Bloomberg Fed Watcher, Berry, notes in an article today, citing an analysis by Stone and McCarthy Research Associates, that most of the 810,000 workers that were inserted as up revisions to payrolls in Sept. for the period March '05 to March '06 appeared on payrolls at the first three months of the year and most in three states, California, Texas and Louisiana - Stone and McCarthy asserts that a lot of the 810,000 workers were foreign-born and probably had been working all along.

    - Stone and McCarthy said that policymakers ought to be very cautiouis in interpreting nearly all this year's labour market data

    11/07/2006 09:17:13

  9. #19
    I concur with what your BLS numbers are, at the bottom and at best, a deliberate manipulation of the numbers. For any reason, the market has totally thrown them they should have.

    Wow the GBP and EURO have gone through the ROOF!! Way ago where they had been before the NFP-hitting GBP resistance levels from the 9100's. Amazing...

    Here's some info on how the markets could be seeing the elections:

    By BB:
    The dollar could extend losses before congressional elections now in which the Democrats could take control of one or both houses from the judgment Republicans, said some analysts.

    Democrats need a net gain of 15 seats in the 435-member home, and six seats in the 100-member Senate, to win majorities. They controlled also the Senate in 2002, and the House in 1994.

    ?If the Democrats do gain control in both houses there is the risk of rising protectionism,? explained Gavin Buddy, a currency egist at Commerzbank AG in London. ?That certainly could be dollar-negative.?

    Additional $- fundamentals: Businesses that build houses are reporting losses and are projecting a additional housing slump. That is pretty much what the Fed wants-so what appears to be pointing into the Fed holding. . .if not clipping...

  10. #20
    Well what I feared the most has just happened rather expected it would happen once we got down to 8950, we are back to the preceding crap zone... lol enjoy...

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