Trading the news immediately after release - Page 2
Page 2 of 503 FirstFirst 123 LastLast
Results 11 to 20 of 21

Thread: Trading the news immediately after release

  1. #11
    Hey inad07,

    I have been trading Forex for a little while now and will say with a resounding conclusion that the answer is no. Return on your charts and select any major news event, let us say the NFP. Pick one USD pair, and drop down into the 15 minute chart (or better yet the 1 minute chart). Now, go back in time and search up NFP results, and see whether they correlate with price movement. You'll find they don't. Occasionally they do, and sometimes they do not. The results you'll find are inconclusive. Try it with some other news report and some other pair. Make an experiment out of it (listing your results and take a lot of information).

    The reason that is true is because the news is a market maker. What exactly does that mean? The big traders who really control the markets know where they wish to move the markets. Imagine if these huge traders wish to reduce prices but favorable news is published? Good! They'll sell all of the shares which folks are buying, getting better prices before moving price. Imagine if large traders wish to increase prices and favorable news is published? Good! They can move up prices and start cashing out on shares. It took me years to understand that news really isn't news, but it had been one of the very important conclusions I came to.

    If you don't believe me that is fine. I urge you no matter visit your charts and see for yourself if the news is tradable. Never assume peoples' word when it comes to Forex. Confirm everything by yourself and search for true comprehension. That is the only way to become profitable in the company.

    Greatest,
    Forex Zen

  2. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    I like to Trade the News pressers Such as FOMC and ECB as this morning. The events last longer, there's a lot of volatility because of all the Algos, and it creates a wonderful chance to scalp both long and short
    Thats a very dangerous thing to do. I have seen individual trading nicely for months, and then go bust as they've opted to trade the FOMC. The volatilty during these period are too high. Take note

  3. #13
    Okay, thanks for all of your replies.

    It probably is too risky and I would never use it as my principal egy.
    But I believe the AUD news are rather reliable. Very infrequently you see price going strong in one way before turning.

    Maybe I need to look into it

  4. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Hey inad07, I have been trading Forex for a while now and can say with a resounding conclusion that the answer is no. Go back in your charts and select any major news event, let us say the NFP. Select one USD pair, and fall down to the 15 minute chart (or better yet the 1 second chart). Now, return in time and search up NFP results, and see if they correlate with price movement. You'll find they don't. Occasionally they do, and at times they don't. The results you will find are inconclusive. Try it with any news report and any pair. Make an experiment...
    The truth is that nobody -institutions or individuals- controls the Forex market. It may be manipulated but for a very very short period of time; out of miliseconds to some hours in maximum, and requires collusion from many many institutions in the exact same time, so it's possible to imagine the money involved to move the market a bit; see London Repair manipulation by FX traders to learn more.

    Anyhow, news releases are dominated by HFT (High Frequency Trading) calculations, which receive the news information in electronical format, and respond to it. This means they are usually pre-programed to act in a way or another; the matter is that the timeframe where algos commerce are miliseconds; require a second and splice it in a thousand parts and you will find the idea. This is the resolution of HFT algos. Thats why is quite difficult to exchange news, because machines have been in clear tactical advantage and this can be taken into account by traders, banks, quant capital, etc order activate client stops, fake moves, open positions in greater prices before making the true move, etc..

    But it's possible to exchange high impact news events using stop orders to enter the market and at a substantial distance out of pre-news price in order to stop from becoming filled by HFT-due spikes, for instance, 15-30 pips usually in liquid pairs. Of course you will get slippage because your order is not instanly filled as liquidity dries up, however you will probably be spent in a intraday runaway market most of the times.

    In news releases, never anticipate the first price, and you'll be right like 70% of time.

  5. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    quote Thats an extremely dangerous thing to do. I have observed individual trading nicely for months, then go bankrupt as they've opted to trade the FOMC. The volatilty during these period are too significant. Be aware
    That is true for each and every system, particularly the math based(pure technicals, charting)

    If I change into daily, weekly chart I see that the trend reversals are in FOCM, FED, and possibly NFP.
    Volatility is 150-250 pip max. So in the event that you take a 250pip SL and you loose 1-3% only -depends upon your own system- (although not 30 percent) than it may be nice imho.

    If you take a 2% risk for 20 pip SL... it's funny, it's casino.

  6. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    hello people, I am just wondering if taking trades as soon as you see where the price is moving after a news release (following 1-5 sec) is a fantastic egy? I have tried it three time successfully and having checked the previous 20 big (reddish) news releases, only one time that the price moved 10 pips up prior to going down. I know it's risky (disperse, slippage...) but what exactly do you think? best.
    This sounds really risky, however tempting, very tempting...

    Is not that how news trading is done?

    I discovered that there are also individuals who trade the NFP, and also another employment reports.

  7. #17
    I would not trade all of my lots straight away, only a few. .

  8. #18

  9. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    hello folks, I am just wondering if accepting trades as soon as you see where the price is going after a news release (after 1-5 sec) is a fantastic egy? I have tried it three time successfully and having checked the last 20 big (reddish) news releases, just one time that the price moved 10 pips up prior to going down. I know it is risky (spread, slippage...) but what exactly do you believe? best.
    I will wait them on S/R area, while it is break or not. Should it break, I will wait them on following S/R area. Then I will open up an opposite place, if it isnt.

  10. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    quote I'll wait them on S/R area, while it is break or not. If it does break, I'll wait them on following S/R area. Then I'll open an opposite position, if it isnt.
    Sure, you should work but only remember,and it is logical to await the S/R breaks. .

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
This website uses cookies
We use cookies to store session information to facilitate remembering your login information, to allow you to save website preferences, to personalise content and ads, to provide social media features and to analyse our traffic. We also share information about your use of our site with our social media, advertising and analytics partners more information