Cycle analysis - Page 2
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Thread: Cycle analysis

  1. #11

    Thank you for the clarifiion - I have a Matlab pupil version. Might it be possible to do the exhibited forecasts using this simple model or do I need any upgrade ?
    My programming knowledge is zero.

  2. #12
    Yes I feel that the student version would do the job correctly since we've written all code in all steps and all functions, so for now there is absolutely no need for an higher version.

    The problem might be in - My programming knowledge is zero- since we need mathematicians, engineers and so on with great programming knowledge!



    Quote Originally Posted by ;

    Thank you for the clarifiion - I have a Matlab student version. Might it be feasible to perform the shown forecasts by using this basic version or do I need any upgrade ?
    My programming knowledge is zero.


  3. #13

    I´m prepared to understand the backtesting actions if there's a demand. I have approx. 15 years experience in the stock market. Send me a BM should you require help.

  4. #14
    Hi Alberto,

    Are you working on cycle analysis ? I've been experimenting with cycle analysis. I utilize a commercial software Period Solution for this purpose. Here's my view cycle analysis:

    1) Cycle analysis can't be used as an independent trade signal. You can just use it in order to confirm trade signal from other systems/analysis.

    2) Cycle analysis doesn't operate well in a market with strong trend. But, it doesn't work well in a ranging market with narrow range either.

    Only my 2 pennies above. Any remarks ?

  5. #15
    Hi pooh,

    as far as I know, Timing Solution use a spectral analysis method (don't know which one) to exctract cycles afterward auto-select and maintain only the greatest amplitudes ones.

    There are different methods and approaches to perform routine analysis, and in my opinion this isn't the best one. For what about your queries, I believe cycle analysis may be used as a standolone tool if and only it is nicely designed and implemented.

    My researches shows that this is a very powerful tool, but the main problem for me is all about whether to use it and when not to use it. It's a little bit like Elliot wave analysis, you can not use it everywhere, however when a motion clearly unfold, it is a very good predictive tool.

    You said it doesn't work in powerful trend and narrow range sideway market: that's right because a very strong trend market acts like a direct line using a steep slope, and this is sometimes very difficult to model. In cycle analysis this is seen as a very low frequency forcing the market, while at a lean sideway range there are only high freq present, both of the are discarded in pre processing stage.

    This brings back to what I said previously, the main problem is to be sure (or at least, very optimistic) about when to use and when to not use cycle analysis.

  6. #16
    Hello; your English is fine! Incidentally, according to my trading experience that is personal; there is no end point of understanding! So, don't discontinue your practice and egy upgrade session despite the fact that you're making regular money on your egy' it is a decentralized market.

  7. #17
    Interesting work.

    However, how often do you get these results? Was this a instance? Or can you consistently (within let's say 0.1 standard deviation) hit the target?

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