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Thread: What are the minimum requirements for a Holy Grail?

  1. #1
    Among the most frequent phrases you read/hear in trading forums is 'there is no such thing as a holy grail. The item is no one has (yet?) Tried to accurately specify what a holy grail might be before saying it does not exist.

    It is a bit like a theist saying God exists! As well as an atheist saying, god(s) does not exist! When neither one can agree about what exactly they mean by the term. Can it be a man with a snowy beard in the skies? A superior alien? The Divine Creator of Everything? A key cause? Something unknowable?

    So it is with the Holy Grail of trading - can it be a system that never ever loses? A system that generates the maximum yield potential with the least risk? Together with the tiniest investment? What would a system have to be in a position to perform - for you to say 'yes, in the last, the grail has been found'. And afterward, is this the end of inefficient markets because we know them? What would disqualify a method out of becoming the holy grail and only leave it a 'system worthy of trading, but could be improved'? A 'grail contender' if you may.

    Of course a definition won't stop people from saying that they possess the holy grail or that it can't be accessed, but it may be interesting, possibly even helpful, to know when a system is so perfect that to tamper with it any further would be to kill the golden goose.

    History
    Probably everyone knows the story of the holy grail comes in English and French Arthurian legends. The grail was that the cup that Christ used at the Last Supper and in the event that you could find this holy relic, it would grant you immortality, or anything comparable. You probably Keep in Mind That scene in Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade. He chose poorly.

    The knights of the round table searched fruitlessly for the grail, and also the person who came closest, (Percival? Galahad?) Merely got a glimpse of it before it vanished. The other knights died or came back to Camelot empty-handed. So, inherent in the idea of a grail is the idea that it can never be accessed. It should always be just out of reach. That questing for it is fruitless, and potentially perilous. I presume it is the exact same in trading. A holy grail system is one that is so good, it can never quite exist. But a 'practical grail' would be one that is as close to the ideal as you can.

    Profitability and Performance
    In your view what would a grail system have to be in mind?
    Minimum win rate?
    Minimum Sharpe ratio or profit factor?
    Maximum drawdown?
    Maximum 'value at risk' ?
    Minimum expectancy?
    Minimum return on investment?
    Minimum Compounded Annual Growth Rate? (CAGR)
    Minimum or maximum account size?
    Minimum wait period between profits?
    Minimum number of trading opportunities?
    Does this need every one these, a few of them, or something else entirely?

    Likelihood
    We know for sure that there are trading systems. We know that some of these approaches are inherently better than others any metric you could choose. There are a few subjective qualities to what makes a good trading system, but if we presume the aim of trading is to make profits, a few systems will only be more profitable than others. When we knew all the systems in existence, and understood their expectancies, then we can rank them, and choose the best among the best. Can that top system become the 'holy grail'? Can it be close enough to be a 'functional grail'? In my opinion the answer to the last have to be yes. Thus the grail probably does exist, or at the very least, the most performant system that can reasonably be invented by man has been made and has been used to exchange. This is the method against which any future grail contenders have to be compared. What does it resemble?

  2. #2
    I'll gladly give you the Holy Grail: Want what the Market wants.

    Another definition of this Holy Grail is a system or method which best matches a traders perception system and character. There are a few good traders on this forum. But trying to perform as they do doesn't usually work for most. That is because most of us trade our own belief systems. The concept of A G G R E S S I O N pubs resonates into my core. I think they give evidence on what is going on under the surface of the market. For me, they are a potent instrument. But they don't resonate with everybody. And even if they don't resonate with a individual, it makes sense that individual can not truly appreciate their power. Therefore it would be more beneficial for whom they don't resonate to use something which does. Yes, we all can marvel at this or that poster's outcomes. But if your think system isn't in accore with theirs, you wont succeed trying to emulate them.

    With those things said, I think the generally accepted belief of a Holy Grail is a system or method that doesn't take losses. Folks have an issue with being wrong. In case the system/method does take a loss and wins 99 trades outside 100. Then that system/method additionally has to have no drawdown or sequential losses. To put it differently, though a system which takes 5 losses in a row and then wins 495 is equivalent to a system/method that wins 99 trades outside 100, a Holy Grail system/method doesn't lose consecutive trades ever. Not one of the theories you mentioned thing. Folks only need to be right always. And that's the reason this idea of a Holy Grail doesn't and can't exist.

  3. #3
    Hey clemmo17 I think you have touched on an interesting debate here...

    for mine 'no holy grail' signifies no way where one can simply start it up, put your feet up, and watch the money roll in. This doesnt exist as the markets are just too efficient o permit it to take place.

    In this circumstance the holy grail is that there is not any holy grail.

    What's the very best process round the holy grail?
    Renaissance is undoubtedly the best system trading hedge fund round, and has been for years. It is the holy grail. But that doesnt mean that they sit back and just watch the money roll in. They work their backsides off to remain. I dont think that's a grail but a group of individuals that are good at what they do. That firm is run by an ex wartime code breaker I think.

    Your refer to several measures of profitability and performance. I think that they are spot on.

    So sharpe ratio: This is the best single ratio. The top one will see is about two. And systems are notorious for having ratios below 1.

    The sharpe ration is the trick to the quantity of leverage that someone can employ. And for what it is worth the types of leverage spoken about within this forum is really much financial suicide. Zero one that has lived at this would go anywhere near that form of leverage. 100:1. . 200:1 etc.. That's insanity

    percent win rate: Lets say up times to down days percent. That's suspicious if a person has a percent of times of over 60. If above say 65% winning times that person is currently in jail or about to go. Mid 50s is a percentage win rate.

    Im dring away from the point here I bit I think but you get what I mean.

    I shall leave it as im interested to see if there will be some answers.

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    I never really liked using the expression Holy Grail to describe a trading system. I prefer to use Flying Pig. I always presumed it meant a system which never loses, but it's not possible to make it because the market is generated by people, and humans aren't perfect. You will find patterns created by the market, each the human factor, but there is not a single mathematical equation which could accurately account for each pattern. Outliers are inherent because traders don't all transaction exactly the same technique for precisely the same reasons. Each transaction is a special occasion, with...
    Can I ask the probability of Eur/Usd going up elsewhere if Trump were tonight? How about down? Does that probability add to compound the probabilities gained from him passing taxation reform or the possibility of impeachment? Does it negate those probabilities? Best of luck.

    I will tell you something with 100% probability. The market would move on Sunday. That.

  5. #5
    If you are speaking about a Holy Grail method, then it's the ideal method that generates guaranteed yield at no risk -- e.g. arbitrage -- also it falls short of this by some random degree, which basically means that it can mean anything that you would like it to be.

    Which reminds me of the quaint narrative where each of the townsfolk are trying to outsmart the local blossom by inventing a question that he can't answer, along with a devious little boy asks just how big is big? Along with the blossom, after considering for a fantastic while, answers anything which is not small.

  6. #6
    The only reason why almost everyone said there is no holy grail will be becos significantly less than 1 percent of the traders have it. If you don't have the holy grail like the fractures of the 99% then of course you will said there's none as a result of overwhelming majority who does not have it also but if you've got it then obviously the holy grail is that there becos that you are currently using it to trade.
    My version of a holy grail is that will know just where the support/resistant amounts are and when and if it is breached then at which the new/latest levels will likely be. Minimum RR has to be greater than 1:2 and it doesn't matter whether it is a scalp transaction or another time frames so long as RR remains 1:2 and minimal Win/Loss ratio is greater than 60-75 percent.
    Anyone who will attain this competency level can throw his skill with me beginning with E/U pairs so that iron will help sharpens iron. To provide an illuion on the current latest Jan 5th PA my market is 12048 with SL @12075 with first TP@ 11980 or upon spotting reversal signal. Taking profit or closing commerce before attaining min RR is considered a failed commerce affecting RR W/L ratio although you may still make some money by early commerce closure. Therefore imo making money alone does not mean that you have the holy grail trading system becos market can and will take it all back and more if RR and WL ratios are significantly less than favourable.

    Cheers
    GS.

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    quote there's not any probability until there's an action to measure, in the event of trading, either an entrance or exit. Probability requires a sample size, buyers versus sellers. There is not any measurement to get a non-event, so I cannot answer your hypothetical question. It is not real until it occurs. Then it could be quantified and traded. I assume you're talking about predicting or being psychic or something comparable. Probability is just another word for chances that requires a people according to an array. Can not probability anything until there's information to support...
    psychic. Just aware of how a creature population reacts.

  8. #8
    Think about the following questions....

    1. Is it an logical arrangement and presentation of information for a purpose?
    2. Does this arrangement use accepted statistical tools that facilitate measurement, inspection, interpretation and valid decisions?
    3. In supplying advice, does this arrangement reflect decisions that will be statistically supported?
    4. Does this arrangement define, organize and ch all change in the market?
    5. In representing market action, does it provide all of the valuable information obtainable?
    6. Does this arrangement ease interpretation, comprehension and decision support rather than merely make predictions?
    7. Is this presentation of information representative of market (or basic business) logic?
    8. Does it treat all prices evenly?
    9. Does it misrepresent prices as market action?
    10. Does it differentiate between opportunities?
    11. Does it define market-created chances?
    12. Does it differentiate between the states, permitting detection of major market fluctuations with time? (for Example, the conditions from the 1970s were not exactly the same as those from the 1980s. )
    13. Does it funnel masses of information to a point or single thing, when actually these data should be analyzed for subtle changes over a
    large sample size?
    14. Does it portray a big, clear and single decision indior (price), if in actuality, in an aggressive situation, all decision indiors are small and delie?
    15. Is it only applicable for large samples, or can a dependable reading be conducted on a small sample size?
    16. Happenstance hampers it?
    17. Are the indiors overdue? Does this cause a person who's naturally (humanly) prone to be late to highlight this issue?
    18. Does it force people to use stops, setting artificial parameters?
    19. Does it encourage thinking for oneself or developing experience?
    20. Does it present buying rallies and promoting breaks as going with the market when actually a rally is advertising for sellers?
    21. Does it allow individuals to track or handle time, as markets do?
    22. Does it put the majority of participants in a circumstance where they have a statistical edge over the big sample size?
    23. Does it put the majority of participants in a circumstance where they can win until they start?
    24. As currently practiced, has technical analysis altered the outcomes of people who have been exposed to it?
    25. Is technical analysis conceptually rational?

  9. #9
    There are no other individual brick and mortar activities that has such mystical notion as a Holy Grail
    A notion derived from faith, therefore based on superstitions and lies.

    Do Engineers have their Space Shuttle holy grail ?
    Seems to me they rely on facts and science ...

    Symbolism is important for humans
    This one particularly helps to convey what no one wants to acknowledge but is all so true: failure is unavoidable.
    In the end, the wannabe Currency Market millionaire should have hope and constantly work ever so diligently with unbreakable faith towards that Currency Market trading fortune that is sure to come.

  10. #10
    Those that have discovered near perfect systems such as me will not show people the sacred grail without some type of reimbursement be it financial or other satisfactions like entertainment derived from perhaps dropping hints at the holy grail and observing others follow these hints and discover the holy grail or return to their own conclusions.

    Those who say the holygrail doesn't exist are the ones that contain the infinite sea of Currency Market losers that flow in and out of this market that have shed, lose and will continue to lose money. Their bruised egos won't allow them to accept the simple fact that they failed at achieving what others possess that they convince themselves the holy grail doesn't exist and that nobody makes money in Currency Market in order to massage their bruised egos and they loe console in the idea that they are not failures since the task is impossible and others have neglected so that they feel vindied since their failing isn't credited to their incompetence or incapability, but instead the complexity and near impossibility of creating a reliable revenue stream by trading Currency Market.

    Sad and funny to find such failure traders. They are not hard to see. Just try to find the individual who is espousing the notion that nobody can earn money trading, Currency Market traders lose or other similar notions that just deflect the blame instead of reconciling the fact that they neglected and they are to blame.

    WOW! Don't look now, but you may even spot Some of these losers in this thread above my post

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