The View DownRiver
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Thread: The View DownRiver

  1. #1
    Hello everybody. I've resolved to attempt and begin a diary of sorts here. I've found that I enjoy to this from time to time though it has never been done by me here at the forum. I post because I love talking trading. I've tried this before on another fourm and it was fairly short lived. I made the mistake of submitting my actual trading dimensions, profits and losses. This wasn't a fantastic idea. I had been attacked by the all the images with a lot of posts by their titles since they thought I had any alterior motive. Actually, they were ideal. I should not have done this. It isn't a fantastic idea on a public forum. I think lots of the old timers have a difficult time understanding how someone can exchange with from the normal risk and produce a lot of cash (or put themself in a postion to eliminate a lot of cash ).

    So this time, I want to focus on improving my trading and also helping others understand this business.

    Take good care and
    Great Trading

    DRT

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  2. #2
    Randy,

    only the fact that you're starting to believe this way and question where and why you're a buyer and seller is a fantastic first step. In general you did a fantastic job with this.

    According to your response to the time period query, I would say you're a short term trader. Like every new task when you're first learning, try to keep things easy and concentrate in the present. Focus on what you definitely know to be and not what may occur.

    It may help you to concentrate on weekly values or monthly.

    In case you could look at the price distribution beginning in January 2007 here's what you would see:

    The maximum line of the curve comes in around 1.2950/90. This is a critical level. I would undoubtedly be a buyer facing the area.

    Additional the curve demones an advancement to 3170. We attained this region late last week. The most probable situation is a balancing move back down to the 3080 level and maybe back down to the 2950 area indied above.

    If the market settles above the 3170 area. That is a STRONG sign that a new uptrend is in place and levels around 3290, 3360 and 3450 are possible .

    On a really short term basis, I trade the daily action and use this knowledge as a guide only. Not a hard quick plan. I am going to try and discuss very short-term transactions here since I believe many traders fall into this egory. Particularly if just beginning. It takes larger trading equity to trade the longer duration.

    If you looked at all of the longer duration distribtuions, you would observe bullish distributions in control. Only look at a weekly chart, this is no revelation. The Long Term distributions indie levels up close 1.5500 are possible.

    I am going to post a sample candlestick chart and explain the levels on it. I will be submitting it in all of the threads. You may use it as a guide to maintain studying value areas for each pair.

    Nice job with your analysis. When I first started with this, I just tracked value places on newspaper. Keep studying these candlesticks. Jot down places you see where consolidation occurred. Mark up those charts. Soon it'll come easier.

    DRT







    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    DRT,

    Large THANKS for taking time for you excuse (s).

    Without the use of PDA (just using price), let me try to interpret what you are saying. We'll Follow the EUR/USD Daily chart.

    - Since near the end of last November until now, am I correct in stating that buyers and sellers have put a reasonable vaule about the Euro at someplace between 1.3050 and 1.3100? I came to the conclusion buy looking at the range of prices that comprised the many Support/Resistance tags.

    - Could it also be said that this range (provided I've even correctly identified it) represents the fattest aspect of the bell curve?

    - Let us say I'm in the ballpark here....what would you (we) do with this advice going forward?

    As we sit here today I see two distinct scenarios developing....

    - Placing my Price Action knowledge to use, I visit a Sell opportunity coming off of the 2-15-07 Pin Bar.

    - However, if I'm following you correctly, it seems that the Buyers have taken hold again since they've moved price up throughout the 1.3050-1.3100 value zone on 2-14-07 and scooped it up when it dipped back into this zone. This would create be think the Buyers are in control now and we're looking at a Buy prospect.

    Randy

  3. #3
    Not sure if anyone actually cares about that, but just in case I upgraded the EURUSD thread that discusses that the buy exteme....

    I'm supposing that you folks are not registered for my automatic updates, if you're only disregard.

    Stay nimble today. Good luck.

  4. #4
    The transfer up did last today as anticipated and we continue to hold above River which is coming in today at 3179. A lot of us have some nice profits in this transaction and have been long since the last week of February. I moved through the archives and we put up longs on February 26 and have added to them as the transaction has grown. It has been a slow grind bigger, somewhat different that a few might be used to for this pair. It reflects the emotional state of the market and the position of the international central banks in my opinion.


    Where are we now? </b>


    My view is little changed at the moment. I continue to look for a transfer to 3353 at this moment. We'd ch the entire zone 1 of 221 pips if the upward move persists. If you examine the Price Distribution Chart, you will observe that the 3262 area will be a difficult subject of supply to push . Be ready if we do proceed up.

    If you're long, remain long. The River Amount comes in today at 3179up 10 ticks from yesterday. When we receive a close below this amount, then that would be a warning that the transfer up could be fading. Targets today are 3288 and 3353 where short term traders must cover and make profit. You may decide to take partial profits ahead of 3353 at 3288 and handle the trade from this stage.


    SHORT TERM BULLISH ABOVE RIVER LEVEL OF 3179</b>


    http://downrivertrader.squarespace.c...d3-15-2007.PNG

  5. #5
    I exchange the following currency pairs and also the corresponding futures. I shall limit my discussions into the spot market since it appears that most people are more comfortable with this. I created a thread for all one of the pairs to help keep things organized. We can discuss the transactions in those threads and any queries that might take us off topic I shall keep here in the journal. Not certain if this will work, but it feels like a fantastic idea. So if you've got a question which isn't directly associated with a certain trade, feel free to ask me here and I'll do my very best to reply.

    That I put the hyperlinks into the theads at the signature section

  6. #6
    Hi down
    How are you? Whats your take on you think can go on it today?
    Thankx for your insight

  7. #7
    I thought it may be helpful to give you a little background on myself. I think that is vital because many of you need to be able to relate to my trip. I live in the USA, in Maryland near the Chesapeake Bay. I really like the water and I particularly like to fish so from time to time I might discuss the fishing and water. There are a lot of similarities between water, fishing and trading. I am a fulltime trader. I began with a meager amount of money and took several years to finally make the transistion to fulltime. I used to work for a major US corporation and began trading part time.

    The transistion I went was a valuable learning lesson. Like many of you newer traders, I wanted to make trading my own profession in the worst way. I finally started to achieve my goals when I realized how important the mental side of this business is actually success. More than anything else, the mental process is exactly what I hope to instill in anyone who has not discovered the secret.

    Today I've all I could possibly need, not so much in net worth, but much more in self-image and achievement. I would like to attempt to give back a little if possible so that is actually the objective of the journal.


    A couple tidbits:

    I've a trading office on the exact same property as my home and I am 100% digital.

    I trade long term, intermediate and short term. I will generally discuss short-term trading here differently we will all fall asleep.

    I am of average intelligence and do not understand economics very well but I do understand human emotion which is what actually drives the markets anyhow. Therefore do not ask me any opionions on GDP's, interest rates, trade deficits, etc..

  8. #8
    I wish to share some of my perspectives on methodology and start to give you a good idea of how I transaction.

    First of all, my perspectives are probably radically different than some of the textbook advice. I tried to follow some of this advice early on but it didn't work for me. I began to ask myself. . .If this advice is really good, then why is it that 95% or more of new traders fail and wipe out their accounts? Certainly many of these didn't follow the advice, but considering all the stuff in print on egy, risk, etc.. .why are so many failing at this enterprise. The logicalness of this just made me have to find it out on my own. I still do not know the entire answer.

    To start with methodology and egy are two quite different things in my personal opinion. I tend to consider methodology as How I transaction and egy as my overall business plan.

    Among the first things that you learn is that you ought to commit a methodology into the composed form. This is good advice. Have you done this? Otherwise, stop and get it done now. Chances are many of you are not really certain what your trading plan is at this time. Get something in writing. Study it, improve it, change it, memorize it, execute it. If you don't have any idea what to do, I certainly hope you are not risking real money on trading.

    The scope of this forum and certainly not this 1 post will not teach you how to develop a methodology. I'd certainly assist you with developing a style, but ultimately it's your responsibility. Dedie to it and do it. Maybe I can give you some ideas over time.

    For those of you who have studied ideas about egy, have you heard the advice that you ought to commit all parts of your plan for writing. The criteria for entrance, exit, commerce management, risk and others. I completely disagree with this idea. I warned you that my views could be a little different. I will explain what I mean with this in Part 2. I believe it's foolish to think that I possess the intelligence to compose a record in an ever changing marketplace, tick by tick, which defines precisely when I should enter and exit a trade. If you will really think about this it sounds foolish. Like I can predict the future or something.

    Here is exactly what I do for methodology. I've defined the 1 variable that I have the most control over. I don't have 100% control over it, but I have almost 100% management and that is all I could ask for. That variable is RISK. My entire methodology is composed about the idea of risk and how to manage it. I gave it a fancy name...I call it the FlexTrade Risk Control Methodology.

    I developed an excel spreadsheet that computes my position size based on the number of markets being traded, risk percentage and other essential variables. I plug in my accessible account equity, the margins for the trades, the tick values and I know precisely where my TOTAL risk is with every trade on a trade by trade basis.

    Risk is all that matters. You might disagree and that's fine. However, for me personally, risk is all that really matters and it's what I spend the bulk of my trading time . Unsure where to get in and out or if to add or take off. It is quite simple and simplicity is the key for me personally. Does your methodology address risk? Or can there be more emphasis on profit?

    Anyone with ordinary math skills and also a search engine can learn to control their trading equity. Do this and you will become a fantastic trader with a fantastic methodology. I decide a percentage of my accessible equity that I am willing to risk on any 1 trading idea or motif. For some it could be 2%. For some 5 percent or 20%. The key is you have to understand how to preserve your equity if things go wrong and they will go wrong. Rely on it.

    Should you follow my transactions at all, you might notice that I don't use difficult fast stops. I don't believe in them. I use zones or areas which prove I am wrong once a contract transactions successfully in this region. Applying this notion, I may allow a little more or a little less risk on every trade then originally planned. Can I get burned occaissonally. Yesbut I know my limitation. I always know where I stand.

    Focus on risk first. Then concentrate on trade management.

  9. #9
    In case you haven't read Part 1. Read it today Methodolgy - Part 1

    So I do not have any written guidelines for entrance, exit, or trade management and I do not use precise stop loss amounts. Sounds like I'm a mental case. Exactly.

    That which I am about to say will make you think I'm crazy. Indulge me for a while. Give me the benefit of the doubt for the time being.

    Do you think of your trading as a type of art form? Do you belive in the power of the subconscious mind? I do and it does all my trading for me. I truly don't do anything in the bodily form except follow the advice. I trust my subconscious mind entirely. Without question. I rely on it to act in my best long term interest. I do not question it. All I do is give it my target and it works to assist me attain it.

    Does this mean I just hap hazardly enter a trade? No of course not. I have guidelines and distinct styles. Perhaps you have ever just clicked my mouse because of a gut level sense. Absolutely....in fact I do it all the time. I have 50/50 chances know matter what. Consider this for a moment.

    Maybe you're not like me, but I bet you're. I live my whole life throughout trading. I'm constantly analyzing charts, reading, writing, considering where the six pairs whom I trade are led. I'm feeding information into my subconscious mind on a continuous basis. It's processing this information along with returning ideas to me.

    Do you ever get a feeling, a hunch. What do you do with this feeling? If you're like most other traders you dismiss it completely. Why? Mainly because you're edued (interpreted read in text books and learned on forums such as this one) that a master trader does not make bets based on hunches and unconfirmed information. Or maybe you think it is not in your very best interest to rely on yourself. You'd rather seek out advice at a forum or pay a trading sign company to make you wealthy.

    I'm here to inform you that you ought to respect your personal abilities, your own hunches and your intuition and not listen to anybody else. If you're like me you are continuously feeding your mind with currency tidbits. It's processing all this information along with returning to you ideas in the kind of hunches. ACT ON THEM WITHOUT HESITATION. This is your edge!

    I utilize different tools to help me ascertain good value, but if I wish to enter a trade or leave a trade before my studies say I should....well I simply do it. No paper or no line on a chart will trump my own thoughts.

    Your only job will be to control your risk as soon as you're in a position. And that is easy because you've got a written program to direct you.

    Well there you have it. You probably think I should be committed into an insane instutuion. We'll talk some more about this in the future. For the time being, I want to finish this up with a more controversial Part 3.

  10. #10
    Methodology - Part 1
    Methodology - Part 2

    I will say something here that may cause many of you to get mad with me. It is like your parents informing you that it's to your own good. I'm saying this with all due respect and I understand it isn't accurate for everyone.

    If you would like to be a successful trader and get wealth then you have to do something. REMOVE ALL INDICATORS FROM YOUR WORKSPACES. Get rid of your stochastics, get rid of your MA's, get rid of your CCI's and your Bollinger Bands. You do not need these. They're only a manifestation of price. Your subconscious mind doesn't require this type of archaic help to figure out what's going on. There's not any computer in this world that could even come near the energy of your mind.

    If your software program has the power to plot in line form then give this a try. Use exactly the identical time frame which you utilize on your indior. Now compare the pricing with your indior lines. Do you notice anything? Maybe not.

    Please stop and think about what the indiors are really telling you. Do you know what it is they are saying? They're saying I'm a lazy, dumb trader which isn't capable of making a decision on my own. I know this isn't really true with you but an indior is just nothing more something for somebody who has no clue what else to do! This individual has hopes and dre of creating wealth for himself and his family and he thinks this squiggly line will be the ticket. Let's give ourselves more credit, we are intelligent human beings.

    I guess there's a strong argument they are self-fulfilling since millions of people watch them daily and make conclusions based on the same patterns and information. Incredible once you think about it. Only an easy way to give someone a fast plan of a description for trading. I wager brokers and traders love them. They make it effortless for anyone with an additional $1000 to get started. By the time you react to this indior, it's already priced on the market. There's no edge here.

    Whenever you buy and sell anything there's just one thing that's important when you want to create a profit. Should you buy something, then you are making a bet that somebody will pay you more for it later on. And vice versa. In order to make good decisions on buying and selling, you have to understand value. Concentrate your efforts on discovering what constitutes a good value on the market, not seeing for the slow stochastics to cross oversold territory. Always ask yourself, am I buying at a known level that's good value in comparison to another degree. It is not as difficult as you think.

    It boils down to simple supply and demand. Get all those danged squiggly lines off your charts and only begin to look at pure price action. Find those value areas for assistance and resistance. Buy and Sell as a mastertrader.

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