Trading with Coinflip Accuracy!! - Page 3
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Thread: Trading with Coinflip Accuracy!!

  1. #21
    The more trades that are put are put the more likely the outcomes will be closer to 50/50, a 2:1 MM is what skews the odds in your favor.

  2. #22
    You can scew the odds further in your favor with the inclusion of a simple indior like MACD where you would just exchange long or short based on cross or cross management or even easy trendline breaks. I think an automated system are the key.

  3. #23
    Is it me or is it basically gaming in the trading world? Coin flips are 50/50 without a immediate personal impact... therefore there is no consideation into the decisions or the consequence... it is entirely on destiny... making it a'game of chance or fortune' - gaming...?

  4. #24
    Its hard to describe to you at this point, when you've learned a bit more about the forex I will get more in depth. A 50/50 hit rate with a 2:1 risk reward is what skus the odds in your favor, that is a very basic explanation because the notion itself has lots of impliions that Im milling through at this point.

  5. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Where will be shutting the coinflipping portion of the thread, and heres why (Darn!) .

    Probabilities say that coinflipping is simply 50/50 if the process is unlimited and im not, makes sense. So throughout a sequence of state, 1,012,345 flips, after 12,345 flips we could possibly run into a million flip loss (not my rather odds).

    What do we reap out of this thread, Erik?

    [size=3]That through some standard technical analysis we could skew the Probabilities ( I know, I know) in our favor with no possobility...
    lol are you talking to yourself within one post?

  6. #26
    Flipping a coin 1,000,000 occasions - the chances are you will hit a streak of the same negative 20 times in a row somewhere in the marketplace.

    Thus what. That's a 40% draw down. BUT, you ought to have won oodles by then.
    In addition, the chances are that you will hit a streak of 20 winners in a row also.

    The problem is that you will stop out over 50%. Many times it moves in the opposite direction ~30 pips before going the 100pips in it's closing direction.

    Back to the drawing board.

  7. #27
    It is not viable because trading isnt random, a 50/50 would just be viable in a market as random as flipping a coin.

    Funny throwback though....have that I dummed down because then?

    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Flipping a coin 1,000,000 times - the odds are you'll hit a run of the exact same side 20 times in a row somewhere in the marketplace.

    So what. That is a 40% draw down. Nonetheless, you ought to have won oodles by then.
    Also, the odds are that you will hit on a run of 20 winners in a row also.

    The dilemma is that you will stop out over 50%. Many times it goes in the opposite direction ~30 pips before heading the 100pips in it's final direction.

    Back to the drawing board.

  8. #28
    You're right about not being random.
    My friend got sick of losing transactions by obeying the indiors.

    He tried the Coin toss. It works. Won 9 out of 10 trades.

    He's attempting to get up the guts to try it with real money.
    Go figure!

    Maybe a small benefit is all you want?

  9. #29
    I cannot be certain because I didnt complete the experiment so I can't offer a definative opinion. What I will tell you is that the market dosent move randomly but a coin flip does, that simple negative correlation should inform you that eventually your luck is going to run lean. I't seem like a viable trading plan for the long haul to me.



    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    You're right about not being arbitrary.
    My buddy got sick of losing transactions by obeying the indiors.

    He tried the Coin toss. It functions. Won 9 out of 10 trades.

    He is trying to get up the courage to test it with real money.
    Go figure!

    Maybe a little benefit is all you need?

  10. #30
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    In the beginning of each trading day...
    Beginning of New York session?

    Wish you all the best, but I believe that you will end up loosing the spread should you take on enough number of trades. But like you mentioned, you're likely to make improvements following the days.

    Anyhow, I'm interested in seeing the consequences of the. Looking ahead.

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