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Thread: HYBRID: trading system within a trading system

  1. #21
    Temporary set of principles while I compile information:

    minimal length of breakout pub? Random 10 pips. why? No good reason.
    Kind of breakout pub? Marubuzo or one-sided wick marubuzo.
    B/E in retracement high/low or 50% ADR or major internal trendlines of higher TF
    PT= 90 percent adr
    SL = rear of pub spread.
    Breakout condition: LOB parameters.
    Entrance time period: 1min or 5mins.


    Will use the weekend to critique more trading setups.

    (of course, bpc 1min is still operational, as normal.)

  2. #22
    The trend taking a look at the dailies and weeklies and monthlies or have dropped, are falling. Clearly evidenced by the increased number of polygonal breakouts. I had just 3 trades. 1 15mins, 1 lob, 1 polygonal breakout.

    What I am currently focusing on are: polygonal breakouts, in case a bpc can be snatched. In certain scenarios, LOB. (it takes 3 times of unidirectional movement, not intersecting with any major trendlines or s/r levels. )

    Highly trend dependent trading techniques such as 15mins scalping and standard Hector 3sma will be infrequent and far inbetween until great trend resumes.

    So, yeah, I am mostly focusing on polygonal breakouts and LOBs.

    (you have to know when to trade and when to walk away. It's been a tremendous trending market for the last few months....the market is probably digesting some of the. Time to take it easy and enjoy life more; when tendencies resume, 15mins and hector sma WIll be there to use again. I dont beleive in forcing the market. I like trend. In the meantime, I exchange LOBS and daily polygonal breakouts)

  3. #23
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    not much happening, the tendency are falling or have collapsed, taking a look at the dailies and weeklies and monthlies. Evidenced by the increased variety of breakouts. I had only 3 transactions last week. 1 15mins, 1 lob, 1 polygonal breakout.

    What I am currently focusing on are: polygonal breakouts, in case a bpc can be snatched. In certain cases, LOB. (it takes 3 days of unidirectional motion, not intersecting with any major trendlines or s/r levels. )

    Highly trend dependent trading techniques like 15mins scalping and regular...
    failed a sweep: there is an interim uptrend in eur/chf and gbp/chf as a result of polygonal breakout. Before, of course, another resistance. There is an interim downtrend in chf/jpy.

    Which means if price persists. . I'll be looking for LOB or scalp trade between the lines.



  4. #24
    Dddd,

    I Have stumbled upon Your Own thread. With good interest, I'm trying to piece together the Hectortrader system. So far, it looks strikingly like my approach over at the GPB/JPY thread. I'm running a 77% success rate and a profit for the month of August.

    Can you have a look at the ribbon give me your input?

  5. #25
    Can anyone share the template/s with this egy? Thanks!

  6. #26

  7. #27
    Dddd,

    what it is that you are onto is exactly what interests me in my own pursuits for the correct egy. One of the reasons I believe so traders have problems is that they end up with a hodgepodge of version position sizing and reward/risk ratios across their entire spectrum of trades. This skews the underlying math which determine profitability. I believe in always tracking my performance to ensure I am preserving positive expectancy. For me personally, positive expectancy must be made prior to deciding upfront what minimum R/R trades I will accept pulls the trigger INTO the trades.

    I certainly believe you are on the ideal path by looking for setups on greater TF and entries on reduced TF, without issue. Doing it this way literally structures your trades with significantly favorable R/R from the ground up. As you have pointed out, the main thing to overcome with trades is the of low hit rates. But like you, I don't feel that we have to resign ourselves to settle with this. My bottom-line structural requirements for my trading would be to use MAX risk per transaction and MIN 2:1 reward/risk. These are the main factors over which the trader has total control. The remaining issue is the market that the win/loss rate, which is controlled by the market. Our only real controlling power on win/loss rate lies within our ability to cherry-pick simply the maximum probability setups and entries.

    Do you run any of the numbers on what a 50% win rate will create using a 5:1 RR? Assuming a trade price of 3 percent of the sum at risk, you'd return 573.66 percent every 100 trades only winning 50 trades at 5:1 R/R using 1% risk per transaction.

    Here is a list of the yields for the various R/R structures from 2:1 through 10:1, all using the very same factors over 1% risk per trade, 50% hit rate, 3 percent trade costs, over 100 trades:

    2:1 = 58.05 percent
    3:1 = 157.46 percent
    4:1 = 317.43 percent
    5:1 = 573.66 percent
    6:1 = 982.24 percent
    7:1 = 1630.93 percent
    8:1 = 2656.35 percent
    9:1 = 4270.45 percent
    10:1 = 6800.65 percent

    I'll not give you additional amounts, but using anything over 2:1 R/R, even slight gains of your hit rate over 50% includes a phenomenal effect on your profit margin. It is FAR superior to design a trade egy that is based on and proper position sizing compared to leave those factors to chance.

  8. #28
    Thanks, pipskateer for the conversation.

    At this state, my tendency is to wait for weekly/monthly breakout or confluence before planning for the millipede run. My best r/r are bigger and larger time frames. In my humble view, those are the ones with the megapips(hundred upon hundreds or 1000 pips gain.) . Doing a followup and my personal experience on mortician's compilation convinces me of that.

    Of course, I prefer things to be aligned with fundamentals.

    To restrict multiple re-entries, which sometimes drop my win rate to 50 percent or sometimes, 30% over the 1 minute time period. (the higher the time period for entrance, the greater the triumph rate, but lesser the r/r; sadly, that is life for you) . I am privately interested in researching precision entries, which can be a huge change because I am a confirmation obsessed trader. One method I am currently considering right now(alien frog shipped me) is your https://forexintuitive.com/discussio...-sideways.html I am trying to blend it with this idea of momentum ratio I discovered on trend trading all of pairs. See if I can apply it. With preference for your marobozu candle.

    I doubt an individual can perform more than just 1 positive millipede trades per month which wont result in B/E. Based on what I am seeing on my end.

  9. #29
    Hey Big D,

    Nice thread you've got here,. Just stumbled upon it. I shall give it a read.

    Funny how I had touched on what your speaking of here.

    Cheers

    Bluesteele

  10. #30
    Can anybody share the indiors template/s with this interesting egy? Thanks!

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