View Full Version : Trading the news immediately after release
Hi folks,
I am just wondering whether accepting trades once you see where the price is going after a news release (following 1-5 sec) is a good egy?
I've tried it time and having checked the previous 20 big (reddish) news releases, just 1 time the price moved 10 pips up before going down.
I understand it is risky (spread, slippage...) but what do you believe?
Best.
The question is then - what's termed good?
Think that tens of thousands of people out there each has several egies, so which are great and which aren't?
You cannot simply say the great ones are those that make money. If you did, then if they do today rather than tomorrow.
You see what I mean, so name your own criteria.
About your particular egy, it is one. If it is not good then it is not one (nothing) but that I think many trade using it, how they follow things.
But to myself, it does not signify a guarantee for profits. You want more, a lot than only the news, so to say.
Perhaps you have experience a pair, like XAU/USD, jumped back and forth countless pips for only an hour time following the news? Guess not, then consider doing it.
Just how much chance would you obtain a win, just how a loss? Should you know the answer then you're better a specialist than me and just forget my post.
I did that last night and did not work, price went down fast like 10 pips and then for second hours 60 pips into another side.
You can do that, but it is very risky. I wouldn't concentrate on that as my main trading egy.
There is a high Chance to Strike Stop Loss
I did this last night and did not do the job, price went down fast like 10 pips and then for next hours went 60 pips into another side. Yeah, I tried this a month or two ago. But really hard to create some profit on account of the high volatility. Also my broker increases the spread throughout the news time.
quote Yeah, I tried this a month or two back. But really hard to make some profit on account of the large volatility. My broker increases the spread during the news period. Looks like following the news price go quickly to a level and from there go to the other directions. Not sure if would be like that, but I saw it occasionally.
I am unsure buying on the jumps is a great plan although I've done it before myself. I believe that you should attempt to forecast the movement direction and apply a halt loss but choosing the path can be hard because you dont know how the information will go.
I am asking questions on Trading the news immediately after release also so when I find out what others are doing and it makes sense I'll come back here and post for you.
I am unsure buying on the jumps is a fantastic plan although I have done it before myself. I believe that you should try to predict the motion management and employ a stop loss but choosing the direction can be difficult since you dont know how the information will go. I am asking questions on Trading the news immediately after launch too so if I find out exactly what others do and it makes sense I will return here and post for you. Even if you're master trader. It's really difficult to trade news. Additionally, I tried this and asked this from some persons known to be specialists. Do not hear anything favorable up to Now
I like to Trade the News pressers like FOMC and ECB as this morning. The events continue longer, there is tons of volatility due to all the Algos, and it creates a nice chance to scalp both short and long
Hey inad07,
I have been trading Forex for a little while now and will say with a resounding conclusion that the answer is no. Return on your charts and select any major news event, let us say the NFP. Pick one USD pair, and drop down into the 15 minute chart (or better yet the 1 minute chart). Now, go back in time and search up NFP results, and see whether they correlate with price movement. You'll find they don't. Occasionally they do, and sometimes they do not. The results you'll find are inconclusive. Try it with some other news report and some other pair. Make an experiment out of it (listing your results and take a lot of information).
The reason that is true is because the news is a market maker. What exactly does that mean? The big traders who really control the markets know where they wish to move the markets. Imagine if these huge traders wish to reduce prices but favorable news is published? Good! They'll sell all of the shares which folks are buying, getting better prices before moving price. Imagine if large traders wish to increase prices and favorable news is published? Good! They can move up prices and start cashing out on shares. It took me years to understand that news really isn't news, but it had been one of the very important conclusions I came to.
If you don't believe me that is fine. I urge you no matter visit your charts and see for yourself if the news is tradable. Never assume peoples' word when it comes to Forex. Confirm everything by yourself and search for true comprehension. That is the only way to become profitable in the company.
Greatest,
Forex Zen
I like to Trade the News pressers Such as FOMC and ECB as this morning. The events last longer, there's a lot of volatility because of all the Algos, and it creates a wonderful chance to scalp both long and short Thats a very dangerous thing to do. I have seen individual trading nicely for months, and then go bust as they've opted to trade the FOMC. The volatilty during these period are too high. Take note
Okay, thanks for all of your replies.
It probably is too risky and I would never use it as my principal egy.
But I believe the AUD news are rather reliable. Very infrequently you see price going strong in one way before turning.
Maybe I need to look into it
Hey inad07, I have been trading Forex for a while now and can say with a resounding conclusion that the answer is no. Go back in your charts and select any major news event, let us say the NFP. Select one USD pair, and fall down to the 15 minute chart (or better yet the 1 second chart). Now, return in time and search up NFP results, and see if they correlate with price movement. You'll find they don't. Occasionally they do, and at times they don't. The results you will find are inconclusive. Try it with any news report and any pair. Make an experiment... The truth is that nobody -institutions or individuals- controls the Forex market. It may be manipulated but for a very very short period of time; out of miliseconds to some hours in maximum, and requires collusion from many many institutions in the exact same time, so it's possible to imagine the money involved to move the market a bit; see London Repair manipulation by FX traders to learn more.
Anyhow, news releases are dominated by HFT (High Frequency Trading) calculations, which receive the news information in electronical format, and respond to it. This means they are usually pre-programed to act in a way or another; the matter is that the timeframe where algos commerce are miliseconds; require a second and splice it in a thousand parts and you will find the idea. This is the resolution of HFT algos. Thats why is quite difficult to exchange news, because machines have been in clear tactical advantage and this can be taken into account by traders, banks, quant capital, etc order activate client stops, fake moves, open positions in greater prices before making the true move, etc..
But it's possible to exchange high impact news events using stop orders to enter the market and at a substantial distance out of pre-news price in order to stop from becoming filled by HFT-due spikes, for instance, 15-30 pips usually in liquid pairs. Of course you will get slippage because your order is not instanly filled as liquidity dries up, however you will probably be spent in a intraday runaway market most of the times.
In news releases, never anticipate the first price, and you'll be right like 70% of time.
quote Thats an extremely dangerous thing to do. I have observed individual trading nicely for months, then go bankrupt as they've opted to trade the FOMC. The volatilty during these period are too significant. Be aware That is true for each and every system, particularly the math based(pure technicals, charting)
If I change into daily, weekly chart I see that the trend reversals are in FOCM, FED, and possibly NFP.
Volatility is 150-250 pip max. So in the event that you take a 250pip SL and you loose 1-3% only -depends upon your own system- (although not 30 percent) than it may be nice imho.
If you take a 2% risk for 20 pip SL... it's funny, it's casino.
hello people, I am just wondering if taking trades as soon as you see where the price is moving after a news release (following 1-5 sec) is a fantastic egy? I have tried it three time successfully and having checked the previous 20 big (reddish) news releases, only one time that the price moved 10 pips up prior to going down. I know it's risky (disperse, slippage...) but what exactly do you think? best. This sounds really risky, however tempting, very tempting...
Is not that how news trading is done?
I discovered that there are also individuals who trade the NFP, and also another employment reports.
I would not trade all of my lots straight away, only a few. .
Most profit is if most risk
hello folks, I am just wondering if accepting trades as soon as you see where the price is going after a news release (after 1-5 sec) is a fantastic egy? I have tried it three time successfully and having checked the last 20 big (reddish) news releases, just one time that the price moved 10 pips up prior to going down. I know it is risky (spread, slippage...) but what exactly do you believe? best. I will wait them on S/R area, while it is break or not. Should it break, I will wait them on following S/R area. Then I will open up an opposite place, if it isnt.
quote I'll wait them on S/R area, while it is break or not. If it does break, I'll wait them on following S/R area. Then I'll open an opposite position, if it isnt. Sure, you should work but only remember,and it is logical to await the S/R breaks. .
Depends what news you are trading, but make sure u keep SL all the time, orlse it can blow your account very quickly.
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