View Full Version : Trade Anatomy - ramblings of an old-timer
Hello everybody.
(The forum has changed structure somewhat as I hailed it so that I shall post this thread in the Rookie Discussion forum but, moderators, please put it elsewhere in the event that you deem fit).
I have made the decision to begin a thread here in FF. I'll do my best to keep it lively and updated but please bear in mind that I'm older, easily distracted and prone to continent-hopping
My previous trip to FF saw me eventually enroll as a forum as I was heartily encouraged by the task of Feb in his'The System' thread. Then I briefly contributed some examples of how I commerce and this appeared to be well received. In accore with my character traits I warned you about a minute ago, I then forgot to log in for one more year or more!
Anyway, I returned the other day and discovered that I had a few messages waiting in my inbox from a while ago. I tried to answer the queries raised as helpfully as I could but it struck me that it was highly probable that others here could benefit from asking the very same questions and discussing similar scenarios. I have sought consent from one of the people who messaged me to re-create our conversation here in people. I'm pleased to say he has consented.
This can be Introductory Ramble #1... please indulge me by studying Introductory Ramble #2 (next post) before I get down to business.
Happy and profitable trading to all
Kind regards,
O N D
91702Thank again HH
Perhaps I need to write a novel - haha.
Kind regards and keep up the great work,
O N D
O N D - perhaps not wanting to disrupt the flow of your new thread but just wanted to jump in and say it is good to see you began this. Though your style of trading seems to be quite different to my primary method, I will follow your thread as wisdom is shown by the previous post and you have a very'nice' style of writing which is frequently not viewed on FF! All of the best.
91702You are welcome here - user title!
I look forward to your contributions too.
Kind regards,
O N D
Dang it, another thread to follow. Oh, I've feeling this will be among an FF classic and the best ones. Subscribed and look forward to the journey. Thank you for sharing and contributing your knowledge.
91702Hello Kiwi Trader - you are very welcome and I look forward to your contributions
I was about to comment on your original post, to say I did not use Fibs. Then I watched your recent post (quoted below should I have the grasp of the tech!) And I believed that I should underline its sentence specifically.
Pragmatism is one of the most valuable tools that a trader can have. The highlighted sentence demones this is understood by you.
Concerning Fibs, a great many of my former coworkers used them religiously and they also were long-term seekers in this line of work. I would therefore never disapprove of them's consumer. For me personally, they add an unnecessary layer as a plain ole chart gives me.
Kind regards,
O N D
Any price action that indied resumption of the downward trend. Just a rest of the daily bar. Or a rest of the station up on hourly to give conviction that it actually broke.
Ignoring fibs and 50% retracements SR is also interesting at this point. It's interesting if you look at a weekly chart that 8500-8600 is resistance which became encourage and is probably resistance again.
91702Hello again Astellas
all your scenarios are feasible. A few points I would like to make if I may:
Look at the chart. What do you really see? What I see is... swing low on 25th May (11am UK time in my chart), swing high (26th May, 3pm UK time), swing low (26th May, 10pm UK time), swing top... the arrangement of these swing points indicate (on the hourly at the least ) the overall direction is UP. We'd be on the lookout for the next swing low to have in long if the hourly was being traded by us. Why? We believe we can ride because it's a trend. All about these lows, right? Well, no. Where taking what's in my mind and what I do becomes more difficult, and this is. Do not get bogged down with tide structure or EW in any detail but be aware of price goes. I am sure you know about urge waves and, if you don't, you can find lots of reading stuff to comprehend the basics. A knowledge is enough to alert us that a low has a reasonable prospect of being made soon and that a further impulse upwards may follow. We're awaiting'stage 4' of this sub-wave to be submitted and will ride the 5th leg, if you want to use language that is different. As Kiwi Trader cites, any price action that indicates... is an excellent mantra to bear in mind. I must admitI asked you to think with no care about if you would comprehend the price movement of that instrument. I asked for another 3 scenarios, if my memory serves me well. When I asked you to supply another 3 within another 24 hours I am sure you could. The purpose? Potential scenarios are limitless. Never get too emotionally attached to them. I am aware my point will illicit fruion. I have no interest in becoming a sage that is mysterious, using a collection of acolytes who frantically try to read between the lines of my musings; I will deliberately be obscure if I believe it can help to improve the comprehension of people who ask questions. I will deal with Dollar/Yen in my next article (you're keeping me occupied, haha) but let us temporarily get the query about fundamentals dealt with. When I was employed as a trader, I might have taken part in economic summits rather than felt out of place or intimidated. Was my trading profession assisted by this depth of comprehension? At the years, I guess it did. Why? Since it enabled me to spout the bullshit required to climb the greasy pole. It enabled me to have informed input in discussions with movers and shakers and also to be understood as more than only a floor fighter. When I became my own boss, the custom remained. I'd keep up to date on the financial state of affairs of the nations that are top and spend time not only absorbing information but writing opinion pieces for use inside my company. It would be untruthful of me to say that I have any fundamental appreciation since I am geniunely interested in the entire world economic picture. This is partly due to my business pursuits and partly due to my interest in the topic. It does however have very little to do with my trading rankings. Trade what you see. Such a cliche perhaps but follow it and you'll do fine. The chart tells me what I want to understand about how every nation is viewed internationally on any certain. I make sure I am aware of when news releases are and which are the possible market movers but this is to give me a deeper comprehension of price action rather than to allow me to make a fundamental perspective of a currency. As I trade duration charts a price spiking upward or down because of a news release is my signal to ignore that segment of this chart. I appreciate this can't possibly be the case for shorter-term traders nevertheless. Another ramble out of me. I might post some ideas on USDJPY or I may have to wait. I will see how my energy and free-time balance out themselves.
I want you all a great rest of this weekend.
Kind regards,
O N D
It's the sign of a good tutor who gets his students to answer their own questions.
Scenarios:
[size=3][font=Times New Roman]1. Retrace to 0.8360 and enter long. Look for counter-trend trade on return to 0.8360. Entry will be long at this degree. Indiion for entry is going to be PA at this degree over a timeframe that is lower. I would also consider a entry using a tight stop below the pub which broke the degree, at this level. Reasons Why...
91702OND,
In the interests of a different scenario and a question I attach this film.
Http://charts.dacharts.net/2010-05-29/kw5.gif
You suggest the chance of this tide being impulsive and thus likely to have 3 or more thrusts until it runs out of steam at this level.
I wonder if a different scenario is the fact that it's the retracement of a bigger impulse down and thus might just be an ABC. If that's the event the termination of the 3LIs round the stage where AB = CD (the scattered purple lines on my chart) would reinforce that view.
I note though that an impulsive scenario could generate a small gain in the new high and might come to an end around SR at 8660 to 8700 odd.
Apologies if bringing this in to your ribbon is a little too much fibtrusion and I am pleased not to repeat it. However, I wonder if you believe such matters either semi-consciously or more specifically on your trading? Since I discover that undershoots and overshoots are too important for me to get much from 27, FWIW I don't like the AB = CD when I read the mention of impulse waves, but I wondered about it.
91702Hello again Kiwi Trader
I thought I had best answer this fairly quickly to prevent us getting off-track. The fault demones the importance of language and is entirely mine. I had been wrong to use the term'impulse wave' as this phrase has connotations that aren't applicable to the chart in question.
To clarify, my thinking was that we're waiting for an hourly swing low on the instrument before another move upward. Whether we resume the larger trend downward is anybody's guess. The example was to let Astellas to consider the very simple function of trendlines and swing highs/lows and that I used the hourly to demone a illustration.
I've attached a chart that speaks for itself in terms of wave structure, I expect. I'm relieved to say we won't be going into any more detail on the subject in this thread as it is not something that I consciously make use of and that I think a trader should definitely leave controlling wave patterns until well when they have an intuitive appreciation of the price structure within charts.
I love that you're stimulating questions though - please do not stop
Currently, here's that chart, haha...
https://forexintuitive.com/attachments/15194637602066066815.png
91702Hi O N D
Thank You for starting up this thread! Now if I would I'd like to sidetrack a bit from price anatomy discussion and seek your advice on the topic.
Ever since I started trading forex I've been facing the following issue: should I concentrate my efforts on a few seleted pairs or should I observe as many pairs as possible and trade the very best installments?
The primary camp advoes that each currency pair has its own distinctive behavior and a beginner trader should concentrate and find out one or at both pairs at a time, until he understands all the bolts and nuts of these pairs (how do they usually proceed, what cause them to move, etc).
The second camp thinks the kind of a setup is much more important. They'll always scan a lot of pairs and exchange only those which offer the very best installments (according to price action, S/R, Fib, etc).
As a novice trader who would like to understand your style of trading, then I'd very much need to hear the view and opinions from a seasoned trader. Thanks!
91702Hello again fthingf
Fruingly, the answer to this question is it depends.
There is a great deal of benefit attached to learning the particular nuances of individual devices. I have on occasions experienced the rather bizarre and frightening (but extremely profitable) sensation of being so very much'in tune' with a market so flawlessly that I am certain I know the long run. Tough to do justice to the way this sensation that is other-worldly is but the best way I could explain it would be to say it like you merge with the tool and experience every moment. I won't blame anybody who thinks I am senile after sharing that, haha.
The pragmatic benefit of specialising is you are not needing to envision between charts all the time and you've got more of a grasp of what is growing. Knowing that price structure indicates a bearish change in EUR/USD or a greater high will probably be in brings clarity when people are the only markets being traded. Trying to maintain a grasp of 12 markets in this way is impossible.
On the opposite side of the coin, we owe it to ourselves to get the best setups and only putting in the effort of appearing at several charts can optimise finding them. I've a buddy who is a first-rate stock trader and he has a piece of software that lets him revisit something such as 2000 global stock charts daily. The program cycles through every chart and enables him to instantly suspend it when he places. His expertise makes it possible for him though as he is able to discard charts in a matter of moments.
Learning to respond to the arrangement of price history is a superbly transferrable skill. Learning about it trading oil or wheat or the SP or Cable makes no distinction as becoming proficient allows you to trade. Learning takes time and we are slower at analysing what we see originally. We are also likely completely miss elements that are valid or to misinterpret.
Thus, to prevent rambling much more, I shall reluctantly supply you with a straightforward answer that goes beyond it depends
Stick using no more than 3 instruments until your operation is constant along with your trading hours are completely dull. You might decide to stick with these initial markets for your entire trading profession or maybe you decide to research further markets and cherry select your trades from a wider pool of options.
If you stick to 1 or two markets you've got the opportunity to play with all kinds of little games that educate you so much that can serve you for years to come. For example:
Predict the color of the next two candles. Will it be UP-DOWN. . DOWN-UP. . UP-UP... DOWN-DOWN? Predict the range for the next 4 hourly pubs. Try to pinpoint another swing high/low to within 50 pips. Forecast where price will be at 17:00GMT and create the prediction no more. All these games will seem frivilous however, at worst, will show you how hard forecasts are also to filling your time whilst waiting on setups. At best you will learn a great deal. After reviewing your predictions and comparing them with what the market really ended up doing, you will be assimilating a picture of market behaviour that many traders will require to inherit, if they ever do at all.
Another good reason for limiting the markets that you see at first is that you don't need to have a financial interest at a market to watch it. A lot of traders are only interested in a market whilst they have a position. That is totally legitimate but it poses a problem; especially for inexperienced/unsuccessful traders. They get stopped out or panic and close their position, If they usually move on to another prospect. Is not there much to be learned from maintaining watching the exact same market? Did the situation neglect? Were you too premature? Did you read it wrong? Did you do everything but the market simply moved against probabilities? What happens to price in the time after a breakout? What occurs when a greater high is submitted but a low that is lower follows? A trader who doesn't stick around to see what happens next and wins based on these scenarios is missing out about the eduion the market is currently providing.
By all means, raise markets watched and reevaluate as you advance though. For people who trade daily or weekly charts only, it would be silly to stick with 2 or 3 instruments if your method was consistently profitable when conditions implemented. Let us say you needed a breakout system that was 50% successful and winners were 2% bigger than losers. The only means you may drive home that advantage is by either trading large size or frequency that is large. Similar to a casino - a few surgeries opt for rollers that are large and a few opt for low value/high volume. Trading will be the same - use it continually and mercilessly, after you've got an advantage.
Another ramble over. Thank you to this question and I look forward to your gifts
Kind regards,
O N D
Hi O N D
Thank you for starting this thread up! If I might I would love to sidetrack a little from price human anatomy discussion and seek your advice.
Ever since I started trading forex I have been facing the next dilemma: if I focus my efforts on a few seleted pairs or if I see as many pairs as possible and trade the best installments?
The very first camp advoes that every currency pair has its distinctive behavior and a novice trader should focus and learn one or at most two pairs at a time, until he knows all...
91702
Only a remark. I personally have a prejudice on AUD for a couple weeks because I believe the AUD to have gone in response to uncertainty; I believe the stock markets are likely to rise during the next few months in at least an effort at a new high; and consequently AUD would rise or hold. However, my biases are proven meaningless, therefore it's going to be the market's movements that dictate my actions. Thanks Kiwi Trader
It will be an interesting exercise to track the PA on the Aussie in the upcoming days.
917021 Structure (s)
A rudimentary knowledge is enough to alert us to the fact that a higher low has a reasonable chance of being made fairly shortly and that a further impulse up may accompany. We're awaiting'point 4' of this sub-wave to be submitted and will ride the 5th leg, if you would like to use different language Thank you OND.
If I understand you correctly you're implying to look out for something like in the chart below, and await PA to provide the heads up to get a long entrance around point 4. I am also conscious of the trendline, which this may act as support around the 38.2 fib, or might act as resistance if price bounces off the 0.8360 level.
https://forexintuitive.com/attachments/15194637621634618151.png
91702Absolutely.
Also, look at that leg and recall exactly what I said concerning ster charts and the statistical trend which we should mentally add to the chart. Recall what I mentioned previously about a move and before resuming the pace of increase/decrease getting ahead of itself. This is a signpost that there will be additional moves in this direction more often than not.
I love this is seemingly rather basic and might even appear that I am stating the obvious. However, trading has become so exceptionally and unnecessarily complex that newer traders believe that they must be extremely smart and locate convoluted methods of exploiting price movement. The truth is quite far removed from such a mindset. I discovered a young chap with the name PeterCrowns, a former pit trader, published the inside bar method he has used for years. The simplicity of the kind of trading (a style which will be applicable for infinity most likely) probably makes less experienced traders cynical as they have spent a lot of money and time looking for a killer system.
OK. This ramble is over I promised I'd post some ideas about Dollar-Yen following your request so I'll do this next.
Kind regards,
O N D
Thank you OND.
So if I understand you correctly you are implying to be on the watch for something as in the chart below, and await PA to provide the heads up to get a lengthy entry around stage 4. I am also conscious of the trendline, and that this may act as support around the 38.2 fib, or may act as resistance if price bounces off the 0.8360 degree.
91702 Astellas created some things pertaining to the Dollar-Yen per day chart. See below for a visual.
As he points out, a higher low was posted (Feb 2010 - first low Nov 2009). Should we be on alert to trying to get in and anticipate a move upwards? For me personally, no.
Mentally linking those two lows with a trendline (fully acknowledging it is not a'proper' trendline as it is just joining two points) tells me that price arrangement is really still bearish. My view would be that, at best, the tool has demonstrated an unwillingness to extend the decrease - however.
Zoom in over the previous 9 or 10 weekly bars and you'll note that the two largest candles are bearish. Many traders may have viewed the candle with the reduced wick as a bullish signal but should now have changed their minds as the candles don't support the concept.
Of course, we can go up from here. Price does and can go anywhere it pleases, however illogical it seems sometimes in technical conditions. I would not be betting on it though. That large lower wick I mentioned... such candles are, justifiably, viewed as a rejection of lows. Have a look at hundreds of these candles and you need to discover that this is bullish. What comes next tells you whether or not price will bounce up from that point. Testing those lows is a sign that price is going to be headed there soon but there isn't sufficient appetite/momentum to go yet.
The other point I want to create for Astellas is that he's perfectly right to aim to get into more tendencies. Bear in mind though that trading out of a chart requires a risk appetite that many can't financially or emotionally manage. Trades can't be as precise and require more wiggle room. I've kept things so far, looking at entry and single exit situations. When I trade from the charts, I consider myself to have X amount of bullets. I will ease into a trend and might want to shoot four or five bullets before I start to see some outcomes.
Drill down to the daily Dollar-Yen chart and the picture will likely look very different. The highs out of 4th March and 6th May appear to me to be screaming out to be analyzed again imminently. If I had been considering trading this, I'd be looking forming and riding price down for another go at getting under 88. Drill down further to the hourly chart and you'd likely notice that a breach of 90.60 would be a fantastic sign we are headed down.
Thus, converting this into a fundamental trade program, we have: brief below 90.60... monitor price around 88.40... move to 91.60 tells me I'm wrong.
Notice how I haven't stated Target is X, Stop reduction is Y. Doing so isn't invalid and matches many traders but I'd rather watch price structure developing than be rigid about where I jump away.
This transaction program, in stiff form remains perfectly fine. Risking around 100 pips for a potential benefit of 200. The R:R traders would not complain about that. For me and I repeat myself many times, risk:benefit limits my trading and creates a dangerous arrogance I have an edge. I might have said my goal was 86 area. A prospective benefit of 400 pips - great? Well, of course not, on what foundation is price likely to go there? Me hoping it will so I will rest assured I've picked a trade and have a ratio that is great?
A lot of traders will want to trade with pre-prescribed stops and goals and that is understandable. I would never encourage a trader to trade without any stops. Please be mindful when using R:R that itcan breed complacency and 's highly aspirational , in my own view.
OK. This ramble is done
Kind regards,
O N D
https://forexintuitive.com/attachments/15194637641053536173.png
91702Hi OND,
Thank you for the superb thread I've a question regarding fiesability of a few situations around the USD/CHF, if you'll excuse me I won't post a chart.
The weekly and daily charts indicate the price is hitting resistance, in the current 1.1587 mark. Therefore a brief entry under weeks reduced at 1.1471 seems appealing.
My next scenario would be a buy on rest of this the 1.1920 mark (9 Mar high)
On the brief trade scenario (althouh I would likely exit before this) if there was a smooth ride down to 1.045 I'd trade outside, and tenant if the price broke the preceding support.
On a buy trade I would plan an exit if the price hit the 1.23 mark, using a reentry if the price breaks 1.2315
I'd love any thoughts you have on those, and I hope you can find the time to keep this thread going, though noone might blame you for getting distracted by your own galavanting.
Thanks,
Pete
91702
Absolutely.
Additionally, look at that first leg and recall what I mentioned about ster charts and the statistical trend we should mentally add to the chart. Recall what I mentioned previously then and trending prior to restarting the rate of increase/decrease getting. This is a signpost that there will be moves in this way.
Hi OND
Pleased your energy levels have been holding up, in actuality, it#8217;s us thread subscribers fighting to keep up with you! Please, keep it coming https://forexintuitive.com/attachments/1519463765763042895.png
you've said that the ster concept twice now and I just want to make sure I have grasped it properly. Chart one shows a ster chart of the 4 hour time frame which you mentioned in post 6. I have plotted a line directly through the center of the dates you cited (red circles). Have I plotted the #8216;fanciful line#8217? Are you speaking to this interval after the 2nd red circle as being the #8216;non-orderly#8217; interval, or are you speaking to the ster chart points which are the additional distance from the line during the dates you cited (between the 2 red circles) as being the non-orderly period. It#8217;s just that price bounces back in both the period prior to the 2nd red ring, and also after it (although to a far greater degree), so I want to ensure I know which section of PA on the chart you're referring to if you say #8216;bouncing back to an orderly location #8217;.
In chart 2 I have also plotted the ster chart and #8216;imaginary#8217; lineup for the AUDUSD as per you your suggestion in post 31. Have I got this right? If so, this suggests that price could possibly be due a bounce .
Your USDJPY post provides some remarkable insight to the way you browse PA.. I think I#8217;m going to see this post a few more times before commenting to ensure every thing is digested by me there.
Kind regards,
https://forexintuitive.com/attachments/15194637661552748434.png
https://forexintuitive.com/attachments/15194637681699406869.png
91702 Glad my energy levels are holding up Astellas - existence in the old dog yet perhaps!
Yes, you now know ster graph concept perfectly fine. the exact same intent is served by a trendline I wouldn't get overly hung up on it. Your assertion that the Aussie may be due down another move could be achieved by a quick look at the chart or simply by drawing a trendline or adhering to the statistical general leadership.
I have tried to attach a much better example of this point I was making. From the chart attached you'll observe that the initial decline was orderly (price followed the upper channel line down ) and then the decrease got a bit ahead of itself if a sharp move to the lower channel lineup happened. Then it got back on course after price either moved sideways to wait to be reached or retraced to meet it, before continued in the direction of this trend.
Kind regards,
O N D
Hi OND
Pleased your energy levels are holding up, in reality, it's us thread subscribers fighting to keep up ! Please, keep it coming https://forexintuitive.com/attachments/15194637691865803630.png
[size=3][font=Times New Roman]You've mentioned the ster concept twice now and I just want to make sure I have grasped it properly. Chart one shows a ster graph of the 4 hour time frame on the EUR/USD that you mentioned in article 6. I have plotted a.. . https://forexintuitive.com/attachments/1519463770591138683.png
91702OND
Thank you for sharing this with us.
I continue following this thread and article charts I am prepared to learn from you.
Due
O N D
91702Welcome into the ribbon,
I anticipate your participation.
Kind regards,
O N D
OND
Thank you for sharing this with us.
I keep on following this thread and post charts I'm willing to learn from you.
Thanks
O N D
91702
Stick with no more than 3 instruments until your performance is constant along with your trading hours are entirely boring... Thank you for the comprehensive advice. Specialising it is... Now you have spoken I will admit that this strategy is my own personal bias also!
Predict the next two candles' colour. Will it be UP-DOWN. . DOWN-UP. . UP-UP... DOWN-DOWN? Predict the range for the next 4 hourly pubs. Attempt to pinpoint another swing high/low to 50 pips. Forecast where price will be at 17:00GMT and make the forecast no later than 13:00GMT. I will definitely give this workout a try. By the way I understand why you enjoy stop loss that is broad: you are seldom wrong with your predictions!
Another fantastic reason for limiting the markets you watch at first is that you don't need to have a monetary interest in a market to watch it... Another fantastic piece of wisdom. I would have never thought by limiting the markets.
I'm glad I did ask this question.
91702
Glad my energy levels are holding up Astellas - life in the old dog yet perhaps!
Yes, you know ster graph concept absolutely handsome.... Simplicity in the cost of precision is no bargain.
I would like this:
https://forexintuitive.com/attachments/1519463772628479319.png
Two flags (vertical runs together with side triangles connected to the top of these ) appear in the fashion before the one you cover. Drawing on a TL that's traditional, that is in a row, from them clarifies the trend and, at least in part, the main reason behind the trend. The side area highlighted with the yellow box is intersected with the trend, and, a little further on the chart, another one just like it seems. Guess The other TL, when extended, run in precisely the exact same point through it.
Interpolate the whole chart as waving through both of these TL's (which needs another chart study to disclose it), and you realize that the area after the intersection of both of these yellow-boxed side patterns also behave equally.
https://forexintuitive.com/attachments/1519463773973417581.png
https://forexintuitive.com/attachments/15194637751991707342.png
91702Hello
Quite a hardcore chartist, I see! You've got some interesting threads about the topic.
For the purpose of this thread I think that it's slightly more than I want to go into right now, especially because I have placed the thread at the beginner forum.
If anyone wants to go into more detail about technical analysis however I expect that they search you out as you appear to be a wise thinker.
Kind regards,
O N D
40651hi OND invite you for starting this I see an epic thread and im on board. I've read each the system with irony 1 and also learnt alot but didnt get much into 2 because of the time period involved(dont like scalping). I read PeterCrowns thread and learnt alot. Hope I could learn alot from one to. im all for no indiors k.i.s
regards damien
91702Hi Damien
Thank you for your kind words. You've picked your learning in the event that you have absorbed what Feb and PeterCrowns have shared.
Welcome to the ribbon. I look forward to your contributions.
Kind regards,
O N D
hi OND im on board and invite you for starting this I see a epic poem in the making. I've read all the system with irony 1 and learnt alot but didnt get much into 2 due to the time frame involved(dont enjoy scalping). Also I see PeterCrowns ribbon and learnt alot. Hope I could learn alot from you to. im all for no indiors k.i.s
regards damien
91702
Drill down to the daily Dollar-Yen chart and the picture will likely look quite different. The lows from 4th March and 6th May seem for me to be yelling out to be tested again imminently. If I had been interested in trading this, I'd be seeking signs of a swing high driving and driving price down for another go at getting beneath 88. Drill down further to the hourly chart and you would probably see that a breach of 90.60 would be a fantastic sign we are led down. Hi OND
Thank you for the ster graph explanation. Much clearer now.
As you would expect I've some questions on your own USDJPY post.
Why are the highs of 4th March and 6th May screaming out to be tested again? We've had a bullish fracture of this 90.60 degree in the last few days. There has also been a test of the amount as service, and to me, this would negate some imminently bearish bias I might have. Of course, as you say, price can and can go where it pleases, but for you to use the term'screaming' I must be overlooking something. In fact, thinking about it, I see the big tail of the 6th of May daily low, and I'm presuming it is the following PA that gives you this view, with a break over 91.60 negating that view.
If you were to sit on a breach under 90.60, what span and setup would you be looking for to get on board?
Many thanks,
91702HI OND
Reporting for duty and wanting to learn PA
Could you provide a list of standards to look-out when investing (i.e. what are the orderly actions?)
Thanks
91702Good morning
The place at this very minute is rather different for Dollar-Yen compared to if I posted originally. This is based on an intuition that I'd fight to map out adequately to make sense although As for me, I still believe the current retracement from the 89 area is about to exhaust itself. The point I made about feeling that that test of the 88 region, though rejected, was a indication of where price needed to proceed.
Hmmthis is really where I sadly think I will neglect you all. I wish I could hand out the hundreds of thousands of hours of viewing price structure I have experienced along with the actions it has triggered in me over the years. There is a trader called HiddenGap whom I recommend you all seek out. Reading his articles will be a complete pleasure since, not only does he understand the markets, he also clarifies his expertise and methods with clarity.
Now that I have told you all to go elsewhere (haha!) I will do my very best to fumble my way through trying to describe what I see and .
The massive daily down bar on 6th May closed 250 pips above the low of the day. That is bullish, right? It leaves a long tail . I'd say not. The bar closed marginally in the lower half of the daily range. More importantly, look at the price action that went before it (stick with daily chart for now). This wasn't a further push down. This occurred after an uptrend (follow the low from 4th March upwards). Now look for the two biggest daily bars which occur after 6th May. The two days with most volatility resulted in price closing in the lower half of those pubs. Now look bar from 20th May. We are now on the 7th daily bar since that one and haven't taken out the high of the bar.
I am not sure whether all those points combined will make sense or will present a compelling argument but that's as much of my own thinking since I can probably describe in words as so much is becoming instinctive through recent years. I will let you in secret, I have managed many traders however I have hired a right-hand man to train them. Having knowledge is one thing.
To answer the hypothetical question concerning the timeframe I'd see if I wished to acquire brief below 90.60, I'd say the 4H chart offers the best clarity of the position currently.
This ramble is over. Hope it makes sense but you know you are welcome to attempt and research further if I have managed to describe yet.
Kind regards,
O N D
Hi OND
Thanks for the ster graph explanation. Much clearer now.
As you would expect I have some questions in your USDJPY post.
[font=Verdana][color=black]Why are the lows of 4th March and 6th May crying out to be tested again? We have had a bullish fracture of the 90.60 level in the past couple of days. There has been a test of the amount as service, and to me, this could negate any imminently bearish bias I've. Of course, like you say, price can and does go where it pleases, but for you to use the word'yelling' I need to be...
91702Hello Pete - welcome to the thread
I must give my sincere apologies as I've just realised that I missed your article.
I shall attempt to reply soon, promise!
Kind regards,
O N D
Hello OND,
Thank you for the excellent thread I've a question regarding fiesability of a couple of scenarios about the USD/CHF, if you'll excuse me that I will not post a chart.
The weekly and daily charts suggest the price is hitting resistance, at the current 1.1587 mark. So a short entry under weeks low at 1.1471 seems attractive.
My next scenario is a buy on break of the the 1.1920 mark (9 Mar high)
[left]On the short trade scenario (althouh I would likely depart before the ) if there was a smooth trip down to 1.045 I'd commerce out, and tenant...
91702Hello again Pervaz
I'm afraid I will have to disappoint you. The ribbon will hopefully evolve in an extremely useful and logical way as opposed to me writing my memoirs in the first 5 pages and then leaving you all to interpret them
I'll throw the baton back to you as I know you're included in previous price action threads. Tell me, what learning are you cemented that's currently proving useful in trading pure price? What do you fight with? What spots would you have to do battle with?
Kind regards,
O N D
HI OND
Reporting for duty and wanting to find out PA
Could you provide a list of criteria to look-out when trading (i.e. what would be the systematic measures?)
Thank You
917021 Structure (s) A huge thanks to Astellas for increasing AU that I had not really been observing.
As a consequence of our discussion I developed conviction that a temporary move down was likely. I shorted two places at the 62% retracement which corresponded with resistance (1) plus a huge round variety .8500 (two ). This rose a little and then formed a trap pub (pink on my own charts) which broke with a tick, retraced, and then broke solidly.
Someone taking OND's advice and awaiting the price action to verify that price was moving down would have anticipated a convincing break of the trap bar to exchange (imho).
First target was the up channel we discussed previously and I've exited that while second target is above a service area below. Because its nearing my bed time so it will be an superb outcome either way, I've moved the stop down within a 5m pullback place.
OND. The question this raises for your thread is: what about snare bars? I enjoy a nice long pinbar that is well formed and broken as, to me it illues price moving to a zone of choice and then solidly rejecting it. Without the zone of choice though (round variety, sr, channel edge say, and for me personally, fibs) the trap bar is totally immaterial... its only in context that it has probability on its side.
https://forexintuitive.com/attachments/15194637171123975986.png
91702Hello back Pete
My very quick scan of the daily and weekly charts for that tool indicates minor resistance doesn't apply until about 1.17 area?
I see what you mean about a breach of this 1.1470 area potentially being bearish. A couple of questions are necessary for you ....
How will you play with a breakout? Are you going to choose any penetration of the figure employing a pending order? Are you going to wait on a close of a bar? In that case, is it a daily bar or a interval? Are you going to aim to get on the first move below 1.1470 or will you look for service to become resistance and vanish the retracement?
The characters you're quoting, and the corresponding targets, are feasible but have a think about what your breakout trading style needs to be and where your stops will need to go and let me know your thoughts. Also, clarify how you come up with your stop rankings? Depending on risk or price action or something else? I should be able to give a feedback then.
Kind regards,
O N D
Hi OND,
Thanks for the excellent thread I have a question concerning fiesability of a couple of situations about the USD/CHF, if you will excuse me I won't post a chart.
The weekly and daily charts indicate the price is hitting resistance, in the current 1.1587 mark. So a brief entry below last weeks low in 1.1471 looks attractive.
My next scenario would be a buy on break of this the 1.1920 mark (9 Mar high)
[left]On the brief trade scenario (althouh I'd likely exit prior to this) if there was a smooth ride down to 1.045 I would trade out, and renter...
91702
As a result of the argument I developed certainty that a temporary move down was probable. I shorted two places at the 62% retracement which corresponded with resistance (1) and a huge round variety .8500 (two ). This rose somewhat and then formed a trap pub (pink my charts) which broke by a tick, retraced, then broke lovingly. Nice work Kiwi Trader!
I'm watching for an entry extended.
91702Congrats in your commerce KiwiTrader
When I had to input with this particular hourly chart my entry would have been later and less aggressive, following the close of the pub after the pin bar. I'd be with a stop over the most recent high, so around 8520.
But my subsequent entry would remove profit possible and my necessary halt position, together with the likelihood price could stall at 8420 place, would allow it to be a trade I could not justify taking.
In terms of pin bars, I concur that one looking in some random place on a chart does not automatically tell us anything. In this case, the bar confirmed we had been headed down.
There is a high likelihood we're now likely to see price structure on most instruments contract marginally now before the Asian markets tomorrow so you probably won't regret going to bed and ching some remainder
Kind regards,
O N D
A huge thanks to Astellas for increasing AU that I hadn't really been watching.
As a consequence of the discussion I developed certainty that a temporary movement down was probably....
91702
there's a high likelihood we are now going to see price arrangement on many devices contract somewhat now before the Asian markets tomorrow so you probably won't ever regret going to bed and ching some break
Hello OND
Why do you think we might now see price construction contract before the Asian semester? Can it be due to the Bank Holiday in the united kingdom, or is that the contraction a common occurrence for this time of day?
Thanks,
91702My posts have to be approved sine im new, so by the time theres, its viewable and it slips in unnoticed.
My very fast scan of the daily and weekly charts for that tool suggests minor resistance doesn't implement until around 1.17 area?
I see what you mean about a breach of the 1.1470 area potentially being bearish.... For Your breakout, I'll wait to get a close over the goal on the daily, on the brief order, I'll put a pending order.
The characters you are quoting, and also the corresponding goals, are achievable but have a think about what your breakout trading style needs to be and where your stops will need to go and let me know your ideas. Additionally, clarify how you develop with your stop rankings? Based on risk or price action or something? I should then have the ability to give a feedback then.
For your very long order, I'll have to wait till the price breaks to specify the stop, however given the chart how it is currently 1.1696 looks looks like a great starting point, depending on how it advances I will hopefully have the ability to receive it in tighter.
On the short commerce the SL I've put in is 1.1589 (27th open/28th close)
91702
Hmm, this is really where I sadly think I will fail you all. I wish I could hand out the hundreds of thousands of hours of watching price structure I've experienced along with the intuitive and unconscious activities it has provoked in me.
Hello OND
Thank-you to your explanation. You're doing a good job of sharing your own knowledge. The challenging part for me is knowing what it is I need to know, and articulating that at a question. I believe weall're getting there however .
Do you maintain a trading diary of what opportunities may be coming up to the following days and weeks? And if yes, what form does this take? I guess I am coming back to this question of the way you keep yourself abreast of forthcoming trading opportunities.
Thanks,
91702Hi Astellas
Yes, all because of thin volume.
As it happens, it did go for a dip below 8400 temporarily so KiwiTrader will wake up to a nice result!
Kind regards,
O N D
Hello OND
Why do you believe we may see price arrangement contract until the Asian semester? Is it because of this Bank Holiday in the united kingdom, or is the contraction a common occurrence for this time of day?
Thanks,
Astellas
91702
My articles need to be manually accepted sine im new, so by the time its own Pen, continues to be a couple others and it slips in unnoticed.
Aha, that explains why I missed it. Feel free to point out when I miss any others in the future
For the breakout, I'll wait for a close above the target on the daily, within the brief order, I'll place a pending order.
Would you clarify why you will be handling the long and short entries differently?
For the long order, I'll need to wait until the price breaks to define the halt, however given the chart the way that it's currently 1.1696 looks looks like a good starting point, based on how it evolves I shall hopefully have the ability to get it in tighter.
On the brief commerce the SL I've placed in is 1.1589 (27th open/28th near )
I'm perplexed. What value are you currently currently waiting on a close above to go long?
Good luck with any commerce which gets triggered and apologies for asking for clarifiion but I'm not picking up a defined egy from you yet.
Kind regards,
O N D
91702Yes, a diary full of scribbles/egies/musings/self-admonishments
I think that it's good to have a certain amount of pre-planned egy and to have areas on a chart or'what if' situations but it must be balanced with an appetite for studying the markets afresh every day. Becoming married to a situation is just like wanting the market to go up or down .
What's different is likely to get in on the action at opportune moments. I believe this is logically going to be the next topic. If you can find me a few medium or long-term trends you would like to partake in and place your thoughts about when you may have a chance to get in (and when your urge to get in will be invalidated) we could speak through practical examples.
Kind regards
O N D
Hi OND
Thank-you to your explanation. You're doing a good job of sharing your knowledge. The hard part for me is knowing what it is I need to know, and articulating that at a query. I believe we're all getting there though, bit by bit.
[size=3][font=Times New Roman]Do you maintain a trading diary of what opportunities may be coming up to the following weeks and days? And if yes, what form does this take? I guess I'm coming back to this question of how you...
91702I'm at work so posting from my phone and don't have my trade pad handy don't have numbers.
My thoughts about the different entrance criteria are I believe (in the daily chart) the uptrend is finishing and a downtrend is currently likely, as such the Market taking out my price on the short transaction is confermation of this.
On the long position I am more concerned about the trend restarting and then turning back on me. Aditionally if I had been to set the trade today I'd want to put an arbatrary stop reduction figure, which will most likely have little relevence once my price is struck.
Basically it comes down to certainty, I am more convinced in the short market, so I am happy to fill it when the price gets avalible, and that I feel that the 100 or so pip SL offers enough protection to do so, while at the exact same time affording me the wiggle room neccessary.
Over the long possition I'd want to put circa. 200 pips SL to be convinced of allowing my room to breath incase of a false signal, so I'd rather risk a few pips potential profit by being late compared to risk hundreds by turning up early.
Update: The price looked to be taking out the upperbound price, and that I cancelled my pending sell order when the price hit 1.1730. The price U turned and took out my Sell price at 1.1471, bevore retracing up to close at 1.1532. The downward trend looks like it's still ongoing though, as it appears that I was prepared to jump the gun and I'll wait for a close below that mark today before enterning.
91702 Hi OND
here's a trade I took last night, and am just about still holding. I would value your comments.
Reasons for Entrance brief
Price structure was revealing lower lows and lower highs
Price hit the descending trendline, at the stage it met the ascending trendline
PA on reduced time frame indicated a bearish move will be underway
Entrance
Entered brief on break of bar using arrow above it (entrance pub in pink)
Initial Stop 25 pips above arrowed pub, putting stop above the trendlines
Goal
What's the market will provide me. Plan - Route down the stop with support and resistance levels, consider partial profits at round the 0.8218 level
So, my preferred trade management is very similar to Option 3 as you talked in article 6. I see there was an opportunity to bank some profits on the inner bar (highlighted in green), but as this was not a big rejection of the level (and that I wished to remain with the plan) I made a decision to continue holding. Price has then gone up most of the afternoon, despite my anticipation that it might be slowed back down from the 0.8350 level.
My halt is now at breakeven, placing it above what might or might not turn out to be the swing high pub (emphasized in blue), and descending trendline.
My question is -- Do you think the trade should have been played this manner, taking into account the context of this market.
Many thanks,
https://forexintuitive.com/attachments/15194637192007930340.png
91702I think you need to search for synergy between the length of time and the timescale you are trading that you would like to ride a trend.
Perhaps I have been overly keen to impose structure on the maturation of the thread and have, because of this, kept matters overly straightforward. I will try to find a balance between slowly supplying building blocks of understanding and doing justice to this sophistiion required in approaching market conditions and timeframes.
Your entrance, and the rationale for this, is sensible and efficient. Everything you need to better establish would be... are you attempting to get in on a longer-term trend or are you swing trading?
If it is the latter, partial profit taking makes sense. I really don't, quite yet, wish to get to more innovative reading of price structure with this thread but I have previously given a nod at the direciton of following HiddenGap's posts if a better understanding of price structure isn't likely to confuse your own learning. Basically, that small bar that closed at 8300 (also note: round number), followed by the slightly larger bullish bar, would inform me that provide is temporarily absorbed and price is prepared to move up . The bar that closed above 8400 has revealed itself to be a climax of this movement and we should expect price to move down. I must stress though, that does NOT mean it will automatically be the point of that swing.
If you would like to ride longer trends, you really need to be analysing depending upon the daily/weekly charts. By all means use the hourly to find efficient entrance points to maximise your profit but don't confuse swing trading and position trading.
Hope that makes sense. Either way, I'm hopeful this article will generate some further conversation amongst us all.
Kind regards,
O N D
Hi OND
Here is a commerce I took last night, and am just about still holding. I'd value your feedback.
Reasons for Entry short
Price structure was revealing lower lows and lower extremities
Price hit on the descending trendline, at the point it met the ascending trendline
[size=3][font=Times New Roman]PA on lower time frame suggested...
If you want to ride longer tendencies, you truly need to be analysing depending upon the daily/weekly charts. By all means use the hourly to find entry points that are effective to maximise your profit but don't confuse swing trading and position trading. Hello OND
Thank you the feedback. Yes, I think you're hitting a key point there. My original intention was to go extended the Aussie to get a counter-trend movement as in article 30. However, once I saw the lower-lows and lower-highs being produced I saw an chance to enter what I believed to function as the siphoned down trend. But when price broke through 0.8350 level today that helped to confirm my view, and that's the reason why I decided to keep on holding.
However, you're quite correct, I want to discover the equilibrium in'the synergy between timescale and the duration of time you want to ride a fashion' (...better than I could have said it). This is a problem area for me. My objective is to enter the long term tendencies and ride them. A fantastic example is the way you've handled your current Euro trade. Unfortunately I don't have exactly the same risk tolerance as yourself, so I look to get a move down, then attempt to get on board on a retrace.
However, lets take another step back. Like you say, if one needs to ride the longer term tendencies, one really need to be analysing depending upon the daily/weekly charts. So lets do this, starting with AUDUSD.
The weekly chart shows a large bearish bar (16th May) which breaks the 0.8550 degree and previous swing low. The following bar is an inside bar which tests this amount from below, and is pushed back. It is because of this, and also on a technical basis, that I feel the trend is heading down. Just to touch on fundamentals; China is tightening and it does not seem like the RBA has any further plans to boost the interest rate therefore this supports the shift in trend (although one thing I am not sure of here is that the Aussie remains a high-yielding currency so therefore do this not provide it a degree of security ). The other concern I have is that the Aussie is just down because of Risk Aversion, and maybe the shift in trend is merely momentary. Fundamental spiel over, sorry, I understand you are not excited about this, but it does have a consideration in my thinking
Before you said'The weekly chart got me curious. The daily chart got me and the daily chart will eventually get me out.' How can you read the Aussie at this instant in time? Do you think there's a long-term trading chance here?
Perhaps it would be useful to do this exercise with some different pairs too.
Apologies for the very long and probably rambled article, but it will help to talk through it, and also allows you an insight into any flaws in my thinking.
Your patience and effort is much appreciated by those here,
Astellas,
I concur, there is probably most advantage in now doing some basic analysis of a few charts. I'll start with this Aussie soon.
Just a fast note about the hourly chart along with your open trade... tick quantity has dropped away sharply on the past two bars, indicating that 8280 reduced was a swing low stage perhaps (and creating a short-term double bottom in the process) so keep your eye on upward pressure.
Kind regards,
O N D
Hi O N D,
You mentioned about HiddenGap's posts and I skimmed through a few of the price action analysis. It's really an eduional read but the analysis was done in relation to both price bar and volume. I haven't done the diligence to find out which volume information they're referring to but I've read elsewhere that accurate volume information cannot be obtained for the FX markets as there is no central exchange.
According to your experience, would you think it's beneficial to acquire some kind of volume information to improve one's trading? Personally I'd like to keep trading easy and leave the volume , especially if what we can get is just partial data in the best.
Hello
We are at a disadvantage when trading place currencies because of the structure of the market. We could make some tentative usage of tick information. If you are using MT4 for charting, add the'volume' option and you'll have an excess tool you can make use of. I have seen it stated many times that the volume chart in MT4 is merely a dupliion of pub length but this is definitely not the case, as I'll explain when I place a chart afterwards.
I would like to avoid going too deeply in my usage of price arrangement quite yet as I want the ribbon to have a rather basic beginning and grow logically so readers can discover that it's a rewarding journey. That's the goal. But, I think it's time that I speak a little about'volume' as my trading is based on more than price action alone. I call my methodology an observance of price structure but others follow similar approaches and call them something very different.
Kind regards,
O N D
Kind regards,
O N D
Hello O N D,
You said about HiddenGap's articles and that I skimmed through some of his price action analysis. It's indeed an eduional read however, the analysis was done concerning the two price bar and volume. I haven't done the diligence to find out which volume information they are referring to but I have read elsewhere that accurate volume information can't be obtained for the FX markets as there isn't any central exchange.
In accordance with your experience, do you think it's beneficial to obtain some sort of volume information to enhance your trading? Personally...
I am at the tick volume is nearly futile camp OND in part as it is limited to your broker... and if you see two different brokers some have more busy feeds than many others. The other facet is that its not actually volume whatsoever but almost certainly a measure of movements of the price. But, although next to futile it might still say a little about action.
Here's my question then: if you can get a futures feed as possible for your majors, is the volume on these use in trading cash?
And another one: about what timeframes? I ask that since the daily seasons generate very different volumes at various times of the day.
As promised, I've attached a weekly chart for the Aussie. My tech wizardry is restricted but hopefully the text and mark are easily understood. Each down arrow represents a point I've attached a commentary to.
I would like to present the component of analysing volume alongside price at this stage. The first two or three articles in this thread give illustrations of analysing price (from Feb's previous thread and answering an email I recently received). I'll therefore supplement that by taking a look at a current chart and including the tick quantity at the equation.
The weekly chart shows the instrument is currently well into a downward routine before a massive down pub is posted in October 2008. The move down really began in July of that year and a massive decline at this point, accompanied with greater action, tells me to be alert to the likelihood that strong players are now beginning to take the opposite side of trades. Anyone who thinks they have a knack for always getting in just before price changes direction will recognise this component of the chart! It's where a new bout of selling is supported and absorbed, allowing the strong players to buy in at price levels.
Notice a new low is made 4 and 3 bars later but on lower volume. This strongly hints that everyone who wants to sell has performed so. Price has to go. Now, be aware of the slight gap between when we felt a swing low might be in place and when we were alerted to a climax of selling. The latter came .
Price does really head up but maybe not for long as there isn't the desire to buy in by sufficient players. So, we return back again temporarily. Notice there is a bullish engulfing candle at the first week of February 2009. It's possible to analyse candles or bars or pure price but they all largely serve the exact same function. The bullish engulfing tells us that a new low was made and made and the week closed successfully.
The subsequent four weeks frue the hell out of anybody who used to engulfing on it's own for long. Price declines but not considerably. Contrast the bar/candle dimensions with those that show similar quantity. We see adequate quantity but no direction. A week after and it starts. Price moves upward in a pleasant and orderly fashion and then retraces slightly. Notice the greater volume that brings the retracement to an end. Another bullish candlestick and the bulls are back in control.
Price keeps moving up but note how quantity consistently and gradually drops. October 2009 and many of us who are paying attention would be advised the big money is now out. Again, note this happens BEFORE the high of this move is in place. The attempt to push price down doesn't attract enough money and so the buying is allowed to take place relatively unhindered. This happens on comparatively low volume and also the larger volume just arrives to take price down.
We see another move up on diminishing volume. Buyers have lost control of the tool. Volume starts to creep up again as late April/early May sees a combined move lower. Notice the two big candles I've researched on the chart and look at the volume accompanying them. The first one tells us the move is real and is encouraged by weight of funds.
The next one takes us way down to 8060. The candle is huge and the quantity is comparatively massive. More vendors joining the party? Personally, I am now suspicious. This could well be a situation where buyers are now back but have managed to disguise the fact.
Instead of doing all of the work myself, I shall now ask Astellas to unite his analysis of this weekly chart based on price with the information I've provided about quantity and determine if he changes his mind about anything
Over to you Astellas.
Kind regards,
O N D
Astellas,
I agree, There's probably most advantage in today doing some fundamental analysis of a few charts. I will Begin with this Aussie soon.
Only a quick note concerning the hourly chart and your open commerce... tick quantity has dropped off sharply on the last two pubs, indicating that 8280 reduced was a swing low point possibly (and developing a short-term double bottom in the process) so keep an eye on up pressure.
Kind regards,
O N D https://forexintuitive.com/attachments/15194636851234850637.png
Jing is a really popular software that you could use to draw arrows, highlight, and enter text. Easy to use and Free. Lots of people on FF use it. Should you find it easier use it, otherwise the resources built into MT4 are all fine.
http://www.jingproject.com/features/
Hello
Please initially refer to the chart example I have posted for weekly Aussie chart.
I knew posting this and referring to'tick quantity' within MT4 would increase some questions but have a look at what I've posted with a open mind and then let's talk further.
Short answer about using futures is it is rewarding across various timeframes but we can get into that later. For many traders, procuring a futures with volume isn't necessary.
Kind regards,
O N D
I am in the tick quantity is nearly useless camp OND in part as it is limited to a broker... and if you see two different brokers some have more active feeds than others....
Can it be quantity on the near of pub you are open or watching?
regards damien
I'm very grateful LVG
Annotating MT4 charts was rather awkward to get a man of my dubious abilities so I will certainly give this a look. Thank you.
Kind regards,
O N D
Jing is a remarkably common software which you can use to draw arrows, emphasize, and enter text. Easy Free and to use. Lots of people on FF use it. If you find it easier use it, otherwise the tools built into MT4 are fine.
http://www.jingproject.com/features/
It forms alongside the pub it is underneath.
can it be quantity on the near of pub you are open or watching?
regards damien
Are you currently waiting for the close of a bar to get the volume studying? Curious just trying to acquire the workings of it until I look at it?
regards damien
Apologies Damien - I answered your previous question in a hurry as I was diverted momentarily
Yes, wait for near bar before multiplying quantity.
Kind regards,
O N D
are you waiting for the near a pub to Find the quantity reading? Curious just trying to get the workings of it until I look at it?
regards damien
The people in the VSA thread are all over trading with quantity. If I recall correctly, eSignal aggregates over 100 brokers volume info to build their own Forex volume indior. I think IBFX gets the most accurate volume indior vs. other brokers as compared with eSignal.
I may not be 100% accurate, but I recall something to the effect reading this thread.
The VSA thread, as well as the teachings of Tom Willi, are well worth further investigation.
It is interesting, I do not really trade in accore with VSA in pure phrases and I called it something else but the overlaps are important enough to inform me it is a solid representation of the way the markets work.
The folks in the VSA thread are over trading with quantity. If I recall properly, eSignal aggregates over 100 brokers volume information to build their Forex volume indior. I believe IBFX has the most accurate volume indior vs. other brokers as compared with eSignal.
I might not be 100% accurate, but I recall something to the impact reading this thread.
I see the problem im looking at the very moment at gomarkets ibfx and axis odl all have the same volume data? I want to hijack ONDS thread so this has been discussed many a times in different threads allows stick to the subject. Of the aud/usd volume and p.a and wait for astelles reply. That is obviously course old maybe not dead desires to speak on this topic
regards damien
If you are using MT4 for charting, insert the'quantity' option and you'll have an excess tool it is possible to make use of... Unforturnately I'm not using MT4. I'll see whether my trading platform offers similar kind of data.
I wish to avoid going too deeply in my usage of price arrangement quite yet as I need the ribbon to have a rather basic start and develop logically so that readers can find it a rewarding journey. That's the aim anyway. I'm all for it - also read in a few of the earlier posts which you'll gradually providing building blocks of knowledge along with price construction analysis. It'll be a great way for us to assimilate the doctrine of your trading approach. I'll be learning.
Instead of doing all of the work myself, I will now ask to unite his analysis of this weekly chart based on price with all the information I've provided about quantity and see if he changes his mind about anything Hello O N D
I think what you are suggesting is that when a person sees a large bearish bar on heavy volume (when currently in a downward move) subsequently be suspicious of large funds offering the price lower and lower in an attempt to pull in sellers, so they may buy at bargain levels. Look for further proof of this at a new low being made within the next few bars, but on reduced volume.
I'd imagine that one would also find this exact same volume attribute once an up-move is coming to a conclusion. However, in your chart you annotate #8216;quantity slowly dropped off #8211; bulls are out#8217; over the time once the up-move seems to be coming to a conclusion. Why do we not find climatic buying? Or is that what increases your believing that the up-move may not be over yet?
In response to your query, taking a look at your chart I see climatic selling on the current large bearish bar, followed by a new low being just about made from the subsequent bar. This subsequent bar also has heavy volume but only slightly less than the bearish bar. Even though the quantity is only slightly lower, the bar length is much smaller. So, adequate quantity can#8217;t maintain decline in price #8211; chances are we are going upward, right!?
To be truthful I'm #8217;m not completely clear here. Would be good to hear others also have a go at distributing the current position of this AUD/USD using this info.
Thanks,
Anyone else wish to comment on the chart I posted?
Hello O N D
To be honest I am not totally clear here. Would be good to listen to other people also take a peek at interpreting the current position of the AUD/USD utilizing this info.
Thanks,
Astellas
Hi O N D
Whilst we are waiting, I'd like to ask you a question on a few of your older articles in Febs thread. Https://forexintuitive.com/discussion-trading/97934-time-zones-day-light-savings-major-markets.html - post 687. There is a chart of this PA clarified on the next page in post 693.
You said” I thought it likely that there would have to be another test of this 16th Nov low prior to the next push up and also my limit order was so positioned at 160.50. This was hit for a profit of 153 ticks and price just went as low as 160.41 before going upward.”
Can you put it into words why you thought this test was'likely'?
Thanks,
What I can see you've got the large bullish quantity and large bearish bar its the bears making a last gasp to push it down and running out of puff. Now the quantity after is bearish. But price is all about at precisely the same level wich means price has stalled. And we could be visiting a correction or reversal. My guess correction
am I shut???
regards damien
Hi OND
Everything you think of this could whe are close to that ressistance got 2 scenarios. Waiting to get it with patience and will determine what price will do there.
15Min
https://forexintuitive.com/attachments/15194636531265520648.png
1H
https://forexintuitive.com/attachments/1519463655927406021.png
Hi Damien
Can you please clarify what you mean by bearish volume?
We must never presume that, as a bar ends down, the volume is bearish but maybe you're referring to something else.
Kind regards.
O N D
what I can see you have the big bullish volume and big bearish bar its the bears making a last gasp to push it down and running out of puff. Now the volume after is bearish. But price is all about at precisely the same level wich means price has stalled. And we could be seeing a correction or reversal. My figure correction
am I close???
regards damien
Is fantastic
in addition, be sure you are thinking in terms of everything you will do in response tovarious situations. And try to have sufficient situations in mind to keep a flexible perspective.
As I am sure you've heard previously, being right is immaterial. Being profitable is everything
Kind regards,
O N D
Hello OND
What you think of this could whe are close to this ressistance got 2 situations. Waiting for this with patience and will determine what price will do there.
15Min
https://forexintuitive.com/attachments/1519463657552680796.png
1H
https://forexintuitive.com/attachments/151946365720395793.png
Thank You for reply O.N.D
Bearish compared to the previous volume I was speaking to or its dropping off. In jesse livermores book they say to watch for large volume on large spikes in price it is a red flag that something isnt quiet right and the majority of the time was the fatigue of a push in any event.
regards damien
Hi O N D,
I've a follow-up question to your own post #6 to the EUR/USD analysis. Please refer to the attached daily chart.
1. Euro simply made a new reduced on June 1.
2. The following day was an inside bar, then yesterday it's a bearish engulfing candle.
My question is, would you have transferred your stop loss farther based on the aforementioned price action? I am guessing it'd be above the swing top on May 28 at around 1.2480-1.2500?
Thanks.
https://forexintuitive.com/attachments/15194636581086954592.png
Hello
Here's what I've done.
Cease moved on Monday (31st) to 2710.
With the stop over the 28th May high is absolutely okay trading egy and it does appear to be a substantial recent high but the nature, and length, of my trade means I'm being quite liberal about moving my stop down as nothing has told me the celebration is over and I want to stay in place as long as I'm able to.
Hope that answers the question
Kind regards.
O N D
Hello O N D,
I've a followup question to your own post #6 to the EUR/USD analysis. Please refer to the attached daily chart.
1. Euro simply made a new reduced on June 1.
2. The following day was an inside bar, then yesterday it's a bearish engulfing candle.
My question is, how do you have moved your stop loss further depending on the aforementioned price action? I'm guessing it would be over the swing high on May 28 at around 1.2480-1.2500?
Thanks.
hi OND this is what I see to your eur/usd what do you think?
regards damien
https://forexintuitive.com/attachments/151946366167728311.png
Hi Damien,
Excuse my confusion (I will blame old age!) But are you telling me you're long or want to acquire long or ?
As I've said, my short is remaining open and my stop is still allowing plenty of wiggle room since I haven't YET seen a sign to indicate the experts want to take it greater.
I can not add a lot more than that on this pair at the instant as nothing of importance has happened today, other than a feeble support area being breached. I guess there is a chance that the plogical degree of 1.20 could wind up being important in terms of a base being made but price not quantity actions have demonstrated that yet, in my view.
Kind regards,
O N D
hi OND that is exactly what I see to the eur/usd what would you believe?
regards damien
No I am short only saying I believe it will stall at 1.200 before going lower. Also intermarket correlations are all pointing towards the downside. Just for more conformation except gold.
regards damien
Forgive me if I'm wrong damo, ond, however, I think that OND is developing a egy predicated not on understanding what will happen to EU because of intermarket correlations, over-extension or attaining a particular SR level.
Unless I'm reading it wrong, OND's egy appears to be based on awareness of these levels but watching price and volume develop in them to inform him/us what the motorists in the market are doing and where they appear to be accepting price - thus providing a good probability of a winning trade.
OND, what can you think about Wycoff? I always found that VSA strove to get too much information from too little but have discovered Wycoff's work a good basis for sound thinking about what is occurring and how to get on side with the market's driving forces.
I notice in passing that the AU has demoned once again that the trend is our friend and that the daily and weekly charts provide very good guie of where we ought to be searching for hourly opportunities.
Yes but he asked us to contribute to this thread and contributed exactly what I thought was going. Additionally, I mentioned a plogical level and quantity picking up a bit on that level. Is this not exactly what im supposed to do when im wrong im convinced OND will fix me im only saying exactly what im seeing. And hoping for constructive criticism. And intermarket correlations is exactly what the big dogs can also be doing.
regards damien
Becoming mindful of plogical levels certainly is not a waste of time. Just try to remain flexible and respond to what happens instead of being seduced by what'should' happen.
Look back at what happened recently at 1.30 for instance.
Kind regards,
O N D
no I am short just saying I think it will stall at 1.200 prior to going reduced. Additionally intermarket correlations are all pointing towards the disadvantage. Just for further conformation except gold.
regards damien
I think this sums up the egy nicely Kiwi Trader. I no longer have the interior view of what the big money is up to but I do not believe I want it and what I am trying to show through this thread is that none of us really need it if we could learn to effectively read a chart.
As for correlations, again they are not something I would dismiss as nonsense but they are not something I rely on for trading. Until they are not, Matters are correlated. This sentence tells me to know to not wed myself to things that are these.
I am, unsurprisingly, a Fantastic admirer of Richard Wyckoff. His three principal legislation (supply/demand, effort/results, cause/effect) are fundamentally sound. They are easy to misinterpret. I have seen more snake oil salesmen trying to profit from bastardised versions of Wyckoff's thinking than I care to recall.
Wyckoff, quite rightly, determined that the one goal we should have in gambling is to know about exactly what the'smart money' is performing. It is helpful to simplify this concept by thinking about the smart money to be one entity rather than the intricate collection of professionals which make such a group.
VSA resembles anything else, it should be approached with an open mind alongside a healthy dose of doubt and an inquiring mindset. I really do consider that traders who understand the concepts behind Wyckoff's teachings and those of Tom Willi/VSA is going to have supreme advantage over traders that react purely based upon bar/candle construction or breakouts etc..
Our travel of trading eduion never ends. Take it from someone who is closer to the grave than the cradle! What we pick up is not always obvious but most of us have an extremely efficient filter which permits us to incorporate little parts of concepts and to add to our general structural comprehension of the markets. The simple fact remains that many traders begin by gaining a faulty comprehension of what drives the markets. Supply and demand is NOT the entire picture by any means.
That I think that the secret with VSA is to be more selective about the parts that are purposeful and to be mindful of it being an alert rather than a trading system. I see others that use VSA and include all kinds of bells and whistles as confirmation. Personally, I really don't see them as being necessary and that is the reason why I happily direct readers to absorb HiddenGap's wisdom. But, I am happy that people locate their own styles when they work out as profitable.
My thinking now is the same as it was some years back - understand what drives the markets, learn to translate price action, learn to translate which market players are buying and selling.... All sounds simple really but achieving all 3 will provide a lifetime career and financial protection.
Kind regards,
O N D
Forgive me if I am incorrect damo, ond, however I think that OND is developing a egy based not on understanding what's going to happen to EU due to intermarket correlations, over-extension or reaching a particular SR level.
Unless I am reading it wrong, OND's egy seems to be based on consciousness of these amounts but watching price and quantity grow in them to inform him/us what the motorists in the market do and where they appear to be taking price - thus offering a good likelihood of a winning transaction.
OND, [color=Blue][b]what do you think of...
My thinking today is the same as it was some years back - understand what drives the markets, learn how to translate price action, learn how to translate which market players are buying and selling.... All sounds easy really but achieving all 3 will offer a lifetime career and financial protection.
Kind regards,
O N D I know the first 2 can be done #3 is a little more difficult I hope this is what the main part of the thread will be around I read several topics on this and all dried up to nothing in a matter of days of ppl beginning the thread? Im guessing this is where volumes come in. I always thought to myself if the volume is broker specific it is still possible to see the big money players in your broker amounts and they all work together to get the same goal I believe.
regards damien
Thank You for the Comments!
Still another 200 pips drop on Friday. Trend trading with price action can be very profitable...
Hi
Here's what I have done.
Stop moved on Monday (31st) to 2710.
Having the stop above the 28th May high is perfectly okay trading egy and it will appear to be a significant recent high but the character, and length, of my trade means I'm being very liberal about moving my stop down as nothing has yet told me that the celebration is finished and I want to remain in place as long as I'm ready to.
Hope that answers the question
Kind regards.
O N D
Depending upon what was revealed in this thread up to now, who will now spot trade opportunities? Whomever is brave enough, go ahead and place them and I will add some comments. I will also post some of my own once I've seen how strong the comprehension is
Kind regards,
O N D
Not really O.N.D would be nice if you could clarify the volume a bit better the way to look at it.
That I readed a book sometime past martin pring on specialized analysis it was I think.
He was talking about when price is comming near support and ressistance and volume is rising,It mostly is gonna rebound is the right?
Or am I intpreted it totaly wrong hope you could help a bit more with this particular
Thank you O.N.D
Do not worry, we'll definitely be going into more detail. Only need to check who thinks they have grasped basic elements of the idea
In the meantime, please refer back again to the chart I posted (post #66) and begin to apply similar thinking to additional charts you visit. Eyeballing charts with a different mindset can do you a lot of good. Furthermore, if you have enough time and attention to do a little bit of reading, begin to collect the original materials produced by Richard Wyckoff as which will provide you a head start on several.
Kind regards,
O N D
Not actually O.N.D would be fine if you could clarify the volume a bit better the way to look at it.
I readed a novel sometime ago martin pring on specialized analysis that it was I believe.
He had been talking about if price is comming close to support and ressistance and quantity is rising,It largely is gonna bounce is that right?
Or am I intpreted it totaly wrong hope you could help a bit more with this
Thanks O.N.D
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