View Full Version : Trading with Coinflip Accuracy!!
Im going to conduct a 8 trading day experiment for your own GBP/USD and EUR/USD beginning 29Nov09. At the start of each trading day via alpari feed will put a 100 pip TP to get Gbp/Usd and also a 50 pip SL. Im going to put a 75 pip TP and a 35 pip SL to get Usd/Jpy. At the conclusion of 8 trading days will hold a forum poll to determine how we can upgrade the egy in a simplest way. Rigid Monemanagement.
Its going to be at the start of the asian session, EST..
Hey Folks! As a matter of fact im going to edit the system slightly, where going to enact a 50 pip stop loss and 100 pip take profit for the Gbp/Usd along with a 35 pip stop loss and 75 pip make profit on the Eur/Usd.
Some key features:
Beginning Balance: 1k
Rigid moneymanagement: 2% per transaction
Hey,
To simplify it to get a few were simply going to exchange a more static.1 lot dimensions. Ive also substituted eur/usd with usd/jpy.
Heads = Extended
Tails = Brief
Here are the open orders:
Gbp/Usd:
Short 1.64782 Tp: 1.63780 Sl: 1.66110
Usd/Jpy:
Long 86.61 Tp: 87.31 Sl: 86.11
The Trial Begins....mmmuuuuuhhhhahahahhahahhhahahahahahahaha h
Well looks like we had 2 loser traders yesterday.
Gbp/usd = -50 pips
Usd/jpy = -35 pips
= -85 pips
Here are the new trades:
Short: Gbp/Usd @ 1.6451 w/ 50 pip stop loss and 100 pip tp
Long: Usd/Jpy @ 86.35 w/ 35 pip stop loss and 75 pip tp
Recall People, Im literally turning an OLD Nickel to make my commerce choices. Rigid MM in place.
Both Trades are in minimal Profit. Lol
Does anyone think I should incorporate a Trailing stop to these orders and if so how much and why?
Also would you think the SL and TP are acceptable for each individual currency pair, if not why why why why why why ?
Does anybody think I need to incorporate a Trailing stop to these orders and if so how much and why?
Also would you think the SL and TP are appropriate for each respective currency pair, or even why why why why why why? My advice stick to your original plan and do it for 8 days before making changes. In case you have a goal that you need to achieve based on set parameters then there is no point chopping and changing every day, by the 8th day you'll have achieved nothing but change. In terms of the trailing stop, it will most likely restrict your potential. You're already only looking at 2:1 based on a 50/50 outcome. A trailing stop will more often not to further limit potential. If following the 8 days is up you decide to scrap the take profit point and place a trailing stop of some type then would be different because you first upside potential isnt restricted.
Just my thoughts
Razor
Agreed, Im throwing ideads out there for after the 8 days
, Ratios, Moneymanagement
Usd/Jpy just hit on Its TP 85 pips (Erroneously set the tp 15 pips higher)
Where going to be closing the coinflipping portion of the ribbon, and heres why (Darn!) .
Probabilities state that coinflipping is only 50/50 if the process is unlimited and im not, makes sense. So during a sequence of state, 1,012,345 flips, following 12,345 flips we could possibly run to a million flip loss (not my rather odds).
What do we reap out of this thread, Erik?
That through a few standard technical analysis we can skew the Probabilities ( I know, I know) in our favor without the possobility of a million commerce dry series.
What will be your next experiment?
TBD
But what if you coinflipped 15 different pairs/multiple timeframes and or both together with the proper capital%? Is it worth exploring?
There's to become a point where, with the right quantity of commerce setups, risk/reward ratio, so it would be so improbable that you would consistently lose, which it may be worth trying.
Does this make sense anyone?
hmm...https://forexintuitive.com/attachments/1528381586.png
Its the Ying Yang twins, more to follow.
Goodnight
Not trying to meddle. . I believe you should continue your original experiment. But something you can try-
maybe try a straddle. . So you put a buy stop, state 30 pips over the open along with a market stop 30 pips below the open. .
Place tp's and sl's for both orders and away you go. ( or don't have any tp and let them operate for 24 hours)
ive already been backtesting/forward demo testing that for many months on different pairs with distinct sl's,tp's as well as opening times.
It's hugely profitable whenever the markets are trending and mildy profitable when they are choppy. .
Dont be worried about meddling, its a forum to share thoughts. Continue reading this Physics Post(s) and tell me what you gather, http://www.physicsforums.com/archive/index.php/t-7832.html
I believe this could have greater impliions for a semi-scalping egy.
Originally posted by Verasace
You may observe similair results however frequently you conduct the analysis, and regardless of where you start your count from as long as you have a high number of throws (random numbers)
What you're graphing is called a one-dimensional random walk. You will only acquire 50% heads and 50% tails in the limit as your sample size approaches infinity. This is actually the definition of probability.
So the general odds are 50/50, but those odds are relevant upon where you are on the tide.
Wrong. The probability is exactly 50%, all the time, as described previously. If you had an infinite sample, then you would have just 50% heads and 50% tails. This does not signify that any finite sample will have 50% heads and 50% tails, nevertheless. Naturally, as your sample size reduces to a single sample, it clearly is either 100% heads or 100% tails.
The more trades that are put are put the more likely the outcomes will be closer to 50/50, a 2:1 MM is what skews the odds in your favor.
You can scew the odds further in your favor with the inclusion of a simple indior like MACD where you would just exchange long or short based on cross or cross management or even easy trendline breaks. I think an automated system are the key.
Is it me or is it basically gaming in the trading world? Coin flips are 50/50 without a immediate personal impact... therefore there is no consideation into the decisions or the consequence... it is entirely on destiny... making it a'game of chance or fortune' - gaming...?
Its hard to describe to you at this point, when you've learned a bit more about the forex I will get more in depth. A 50/50 hit rate with a 2:1 risk reward is what skus the odds in your favor, that is a very basic explanation because the notion itself has lots of impliions that Im milling through at this point.
Where will be shutting the coinflipping portion of the thread, and heres why (Darn!) .
Probabilities say that coinflipping is simply 50/50 if the process is unlimited and im not, makes sense. So throughout a sequence of state, 1,012,345 flips, after 12,345 flips we could possibly run into a million flip loss (not my rather odds).
What do we reap out of this thread, Erik?
[size=3]That through some standard technical analysis we could skew the Probabilities ( I know, I know) in our favor with no possobility... lol are you talking to yourself within one post?
Flipping a coin 1,000,000 occasions - the chances are you will hit a streak of the same negative 20 times in a row somewhere in the marketplace.
Thus what. That's a 40% draw down. BUT, you ought to have won oodles by then.
In addition, the chances are that you will hit a streak of 20 winners in a row also.
The problem is that you will stop out over 50%. Many times it moves in the opposite direction ~30 pips before going the 100pips in it's closing direction.
Back to the drawing board.
It is not viable because trading isnt random, a 50/50 would just be viable in a market as random as flipping a coin.
Funny throwback though....have that I dummed down because then? Https://forexintuitive.com/attachments/1528381598.pnghttps://forexintuitive.com/attachments/1528381598.png https://forexintuitive.com/attachments/1528381598.png
Flipping a coin 1,000,000 times - the odds are you'll hit a run of the exact same side 20 times in a row somewhere in the marketplace.
So what. That is a 40% draw down. Nonetheless, you ought to have won oodles by then.
Also, the odds are that you will hit on a run of 20 winners in a row also.
The dilemma is that you will stop out over 50%. Many times it goes in the opposite direction ~30 pips before heading the 100pips in it's final direction.
Back to the drawing board.
You're right about not being random.
My friend got sick of losing transactions by obeying the indiors.
He tried the Coin toss. It works. Won 9 out of 10 trades.
He's attempting to get up the guts to try it with real money.
Go figure!
Maybe a small benefit is all you want?
I cannot be certain because I didnt complete the experiment so I can't offer a definative opinion. What I will tell you is that the market dosent move randomly but a coin flip does, that simple negative correlation should inform you that eventually your luck is going to run lean. I't seem like a viable trading plan for the long haul to me.
You're right about not being arbitrary.
My buddy got sick of losing transactions by obeying the indiors.
He tried the Coin toss. It functions. Won 9 out of 10 trades.
He is trying to get up the courage to test it with real money.
Go figure!
Maybe a little benefit is all you need?
In the beginning of each trading day... Beginning of New York session?
Wish you all the best, but I believe that you will end up loosing the spread should you take on enough number of trades. But like you mentioned, you're likely to make improvements following the days.
Anyhow, I'm interested in seeing the consequences of the. Looking ahead.
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