Low Risk, High Reward Trading Experiment
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Thread: Low Risk, High Reward Trading Experiment

  1. #1
    Cautionary message:

    We invite our readers to invest carefully and to utilize the information available at the web sites of the large Forex brokerage firms. We invite you to get personal advice from your professional investment advisor and to make independent investigations before acting on information that we publish. We don't in any way warrant or guarantee the achievement of any action which you take in reliance on our statements.


    The impossible takes a few weeks to achieve

    Dear traders,

    Since we've tried to make clear during this thread, we are not supplying a signal service to anyone, either free or for a fee.

    We are in the process of performing an experiment employing two very complex analytical models, which we are in the process of learning and familiarising ourselves with.

    We are trying to generate tradable signs which provide a healthy rate of return. Our egy involves accurately forecasting both endpoints of major swings or tendencies, which is no small accomplishment. Whenever there is an upward tendency, we try to predict the exact top of the tendency. The opposite for a trend. We then counsel to trade AGAINST the tendency (in violation of the rule of currency trading) using a small stop. We then put our goal very far away. Even if we are successful, the signs will probably fail most of the time. But because of the high benefit / risk ratios, even a few successes can lead to a rather high overall performance.

    Once we've finished our experiments and studies, then we'll decide what the next course of action will be.

    The results of the first 39 trades were promising. (In spite of just about 30% successful trades, 15,000 times multipliion of funds according to a 25% risk factor). We haven't yet analysed the performance of the following trades.

    We will post them here when we've finished our comprehensive analysis. Our impression is that the results are somewhat consistent with the prior set.

    Note that we are attempting the near impossible - accurately forecasting both endpoints of tendencies. To do this even once is a virtual miracle. To do it is the Holy Grail of the entire investment community, which consists of literally countless professional traders working full time for decades both independently and for a myriad of businesses and financial institutions.

    The consequences of perfect success could be that we can more than double our funds daily. If that is attained, if we started with $10 K, then we would earn all of the money in the entire planet in about 5 weeks.

    Therefore please indulge us. The near impossible we can do quite quickly, but the impossible takes a little longer.

    I guarantee you that we are learning alot each daily.

    In the meantime, treat each of our trade recommendations having a healthy quantity of skepticism.

    If there's any component of our egy which makes sense to you, then we invite you to apply it in your own trading platform.

    If our trade recommendations help people to identify and affirm great trades , then we'll be delighted to have helped out.

    For the present, you shouldn't trade our signs with real cash. It's still too early in the experiment.

    Around 24,000 people have visited this thread since it started five weeks ago in a humble beginning in the classified section. About 1,000 distinct new people see this thread every day. I presume that they are discovering some value here.

    I believe that what they enjoy is that we are attempting to predict the swings in the market, not just only a few pips here and there. The other significant contribution we are making is to emphasise the significance of the benefit: risk ratio as a very important factor in a trading system. The third great thing about our thread is that we are quite organised and systematic in how we present our transaction signs.

    Note that none of the three things that I believe are attractive about our thread involves being correct in our trade signs. Even if we were not successful in a single trade forecast, I still think that the three aforementioned factors make our experimentation helpful. However, the fact is that occassionally we are correct in our trade signs. Whether that is simply blind luck, or the result of a robust system, only time will tell.

    We welcome your comments and suggestions.

    Best regards,



    First trade signal:

    as a Result of stage incoherence of EUR/USD and USD/CAD, the next possible trade opportunity has surfaced.

    Sell EUR/CAD at 1.4240
    estimated opportunity time May 5 at 9:00 ET
    Stop loss is 1.4290 plus disperse
    Target is 1.3770
    Estimated amount of trade is 72 hours

    Anticipated reward is 470 pips
    Risk is about 60 pips such as disperse
    Bonus: Risk ratio is about 8:1

  2. #2
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Lots of folks missing on this thread because of his very successful input for this thread. The majority of his article was interesting except some which may have offended rules of Foreign Exchange factory.lt;? Xml:namespace prefix = o ns = urn:schemas-microsoft-comfficeffice /gt;lt;ogt;lt;/ogt;
    Any manner those missing and his reduced risk reward diary, they can find him on fxstreet.com forum. Lt;ogt;lt;/ogt;
    many thxxx. . I loe him ^_^

  3. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    I have a sign to market eur/cad @ 1.4016 (dont use stop lost or target profit )

    Just my opinion, not wanting to argue anything, and do not take it seriously. I believe a trade with no stoploss is a very risky practice. In case the computer system is not working or something wrong as you're trading, and market proceed against youpersonally, your account might be blown up due to a single mistake. I suggest that placing a large stop loss is better than none.

  4. #4
    Yeah even 150pips or even 200, at least something. But it is up to you.

  5. #5
    If you offered EUR/CAD right now ((5/1/2006 in 23:11) in 1.4039 then you'd probably make 64 pips of profit by holding until 1.3965. But the reward / risk ratio wouldn't be as beneficial as the recommended commerce. The stop would need to be at about 1.4053, so the risk would be 14 pips loss plus 10 pips spread equals 24 pips versus a possible reward of just 64 pips. The reward: risk ratio is simply the expected profit in pips split by the risk of loss in pips, which is the loss if the stop is met instead of the goal. The top trades have the highest ratio of possible or likely reward vs risk (loss if the stop is fulfilled ).

    We use wave engineering principles to analyse the patterns of the market. This gives rise to convergence of both axes that provides evidence of opportunity points of a high probability of change of trend direction. The most optimum trade is the one with the highest possible reward, the tiniest risk, and the maximum likelihood of success. Many such opportunities exist. The challenge will be to recognise them. Depending on the size of fashion which one wants to exchange, one selects the scale of the pattern to analyse.

    There are many books on wave geometry. They are very helpful. Study of Elliott Wave science, that deals with specific aspects of wave geometry, is most helpful for trading the FOREX or some other market.

    Wave geometry recognises the inherent structural characteristics of the market: things like typical recurring patterns, fashion length, retracement characteristics, trend speed, cycle duration, timing of endpoints of cycles, etc.. There is a great deal of regularity in the market movements that has been identified and studied by analysts over many years.

    One just needs to learn one particular characteristic pattern and so specialise in order to capitalise on these recurring patterns. The master trader can predict many moves, points of change, times of change, etc.. But this isn't necessary. One can make large profits by specialising and only trading one characteristic recurring pattern.

  6. #6
    Success mentioned on above trade recommendation.

    EUR/CAD fell to 1.3951 at 5/2/2006 14:06 ET for a prosperous trade. The stop was not hit.

  7. #7
    5/2/2006 16:30 ET

    We just received a new signal from our signal provider:

    Trade indie #5

    Buy AUD/USD at market price (approx. .7615 to .7620)

    Target .7667 or higher

    Stop reduction at .7609

    Reward about 45 pips
    Risk about 15 pips

    Reward: Risk approx 3:1

  8. #8
    TS # 5

    Sell GBP/CHF at market price (approx. 2.2760)

    Target 2.2585

    Discontinue 2.2804

    Reward 175 pips

    Risk (incl spread) approx 60 pips

    Reward: Risk ratio is about 3:1

    This is for evaluation purposes of signal supplier only.

  9. #9
    This Transaction Sign posted on the Novices forum was successful:

    Yesterday, 15:59
    http://member.php?u=3180 [img]images/statusicon/user_online.gif[/img] vbmenu_register(postmenu_54850, true);
    Junior Member
    Join Date: Aug 2005
    Posts: 8

    [img]images/icons/icon1.gif[/img] trade Notion for CAD/USD
    Hello traders,

    According to a signal provider I receive we can sell CAD/USD in 1.1160 with stop loss of 25 pips (stop at 1.1185 plus spread). Goal for trade is 1.1050.

    Anticipated profit is therefore 90 pips, with a risk of roughly 30 pips. Risk:benefit stinks is 1:3
    Reliability rating: great

    Watch and see what happen! This signal supplier is great, but I suggest that you check it out yourself before entering these trades. I will pass on more trade setups as they become accessible.


    Outcome: Successful commerce.

    USD/CAD dropped to exactly 1.1050 in 7/2/2006 17:05 ET to fulfill goal, without first assembly cease

  10. #10
    Got stopped out in AUD/USD, GBP/CHF is in profit.

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