Playing Russian Roulette with Martingales - Page 4
Page 4 of 505 FirstFirst ... 2345 LastLast
Results 31 to 40 of 41

Thread: Playing Russian Roulette with Martingales

  1. #31
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    quote How would he cope with a 50 successive losses streak in forex? Merely asking
    you need to elaborate a little bit more about 50 consecutive losses. I just couldn't figure out how that would be possible unless you place 50 orders with 1 pip distance in a sharp 50 pip movement free of retracement (news, spike, etc).

  2. #32
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    quote Hi Y..I want to become acquainted with trading it (or derivatives of it)....so simply need to check out a few things first. I'm acquainted with the historical low volatility of VIX....but uncertain at the moment of the method to trade VIX and when there are associated holding prices....which would dampen my enthusiasm if there are holding prices cause this crazy market could keep plugging away like this till kingdom come. I think R a few weeks back onto some brokers who were offering VIX. . .just have to do some homework first. If you're concerned...
    that the SPVIX futures are part of the CBOE exchange.
    The Platinum is $ 1,000, so at $11.00, the contract will be worth $11,000.
    the contracts expire monthly. The margin is quite high and the further out you go, the lower the margin.
    For your June 2018 contract which you still have around $ 2,300 margin = 21%
    no holding costs.

    More interesting perhaps is to trade VIX with cfd's on futures with a forex broker.
    As an example the margin in ActivBrokers is 0.25% - no holding costs, they compensate for with higher spread.
    The tick value is 0.05, therefore I suppose most futures will trade with a spread of 0.05/0.10, but ActivTrades has a spread of 0.15.
    Definitely not bad seeing that you'd trade the strange time to construct a position.

    I certainly wont buy any commodities which are not near their historical low.
    Look at oil in the financial crisis in 2008: down from $147 to $33 a barrel.
    I think you're better off to wait till the sxxt hits the fan. Oil will go a lot lower than the $52.00 it's now imo.

    Generally we ought to be looking at 2008 for what to expect.

  3. #33
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    quote more interesting perhaps is to exchange VIX with cfd's on futures with a forex broker. For example the margin in ActivBrokers is 0.25% - no holding costs, which they compensate with higher spread. The tick value is 0.05, therefore that I suppose most futures exchange will trade with a spread of 0.05/0.10, however, ActivTrades includes a spread of 0.15. Certainly not bad seeing that you'd exchange the odd time to construct a position.
    Thank you for this Y. The CFD derivative on the future is right down my alley. I will check it out:--RRB-

    I am probably going to make a play Nat Gas with a bit of coin. It is piling up. The question is do I play the grid and possibly get into a position dimensions of gt;10 lots with averaging down or do I simply come in tough with 6 lots with sufficient funds to take me 0 if necessary? I am at that'fear of falling stage' of decision making. With a hold of around a year or so....it is likely that we'll see an equity s***fest during this interval....and even though there is not much upside down the grid are the safer option....decisions....decisions....

    It might be a fantastic long-term drama for your superannuation. More info here.


  4. #34
    My final conclusion is that martingale is not a good option unless you are a bank with unlimited funds

    I will stick to my diversified egy forever and ever.

    adios!

  5. #35
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    quote Thank You for this Particular Y. The CFD derivative on the future is right down my alley. I will test it out:--RRB- I'm probably going to make a play Nat Gas using a little bit of coin. It's piling up quite nicely. The question is do I perform the grid and possibly get to a position size of gt;10 lots with averaging down or do I simply come in tough with 6 lots with sufficient capital to take me to $0 if necessary? I'm at that'fear of missing stage' of decision making. With a hold of around a year or so....it is likely that we will observe an...
    hi C.
    must admit I'm amazed with your targeted TP of 9.624 to get Nat Gas.
    Just got there 4x at the last 20 years rather than because December 2008 = almost 9 years!
    Did you find out more about the reason the price went that far those 4 times?
    Strikes, broken pipes or.... And will that repeat itself in the future?

    That I'm no lover of buying Nat Gas so far from its historical low of $1.61 to get a long term grasp.
    What is your reasoning for doing this?

    I certainly wouldn`t go the martingale way. Like you mentioned, your first position would need to be small
    and that can be a disadvantage as you pointed out.
    If adding I would keep to the same position size during.
    I just see an advantage with martingale if you would like to get to BE quickly to exit the transactions, but that is not your purpose.

  6. #36
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    quote hello C. must acknowledge I'm surprised with your targeted TP of 9.624 to get Nat Gas. Only got there 4x in the previous 20 years and not because December 2008 = nearly 9 years! Can you research the reason the price went that way those four times? strikes, broken pipes or .... And will replie itself? I'm no fan of buying Nat Gas so far from its historical low of $1.61 to get a long-term hold. What's your reasoning for doing this? I surely wouldn`t go the martingale way. Like you said, your first position would need to be little...
    Hi Y

    Mate it is a long term play according to an outlook comprising these:
    1. Qatar decreasing creation of LNG over time as competition builds in US and Aus LNG manufacturing;
    2. It gives a transition for the global coal industry towards'greener targets';
    3. OPEC nations will progressively transition to LNG from oil over time;
    4. The counter-cyclical character of commodities to equities (which is a main driver);
    5. The progressive collapse of Western funds dominance against China, India and emerging markets that's very likely to destabilise western markets leading to substantial price disloions in energy prices.

    Here is a https://business.nab.com.au/wp-conte...look-Jan17.pdf but concentrated on Aussie LNG....still it paints a picture.

    You'll realize that the price action between 2000 to 2008 is a pretty good indior of what's to come when the next *****battle strikes and central banks are not in precisely the same capability to stem the flow of the tide just like last time.

    Whether it happens this year next year or two in 2-3 years is not really the situation. My egy would be to park idle funds otherwise earning a paltry 2-3% into commodities (below a degree of diversifiion) without a holding prices and just patiently sit on my hands while focusing on cashflow generation elsewhere. The profit goal is just an indior of where I think that it could go in short order....with state 6 rainy day transactions in drama across soft commodities and energies, the sport is in managing your capital as opposed to strictly sticking to the profit goal projections.

    The prognosis for me in relation to soft commodities and joys with a growing global population and economic turbulence is all upside, as long as you take the windows of opportunity in advance and just wait it out:--RRB-

    I'm not necessarily trying to pick the bottoms or the shirts....just a realistic expectation of the guts of the anticipated move....so while we may not have reached historical highs in commodities....they are relatively low compared to background. Picking the floor is like finding a needle in the haystack as in the event that you miss it then all of your effort is wasted on a paltry place dimensions. . .hence the decisions I'm facing now in relation to if I typical into the positions or come in boots and all. There is a balance in there somewhere like another single averaging down degree rather than state 4-5 etc.....which I want to check into a bit farther.

    PS A few of the big boys in Aus like Santos are also of the identical opinion and investing in LNG as we talk.

  7. #37
    Hi C.
    thank you for your detailed reply.
    I agree Nat Gas has a bright future, however I don't see why that would increase prices.
    Manufacturers like Santos, Shell etc will just pump more of the stuff when demand is higher.
    Wanting you a lot of success with your venture.

  8. #38
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    quoteActivTrades includes a spread of 0.15. Certainly not poor seeing that you'd exchange the strange time to construct a position.
    However to roll to the next monthly contract will be rather costly.
    Assume you need to wait 2 years after buying your trades @ $11.00 to get a lot of volatility: 24x roll over @ 0.15 disperse = $ 3.60
    abruptly your ordinary price is $14.60!

  9. #39
    I looked into VIX a bit more and trading it to the longer-term can be quite costly.
    Each 30 days the leading futures contracts expire. No real surprise here.
    What's a surprise is that the VIX futures act like options, because there's time decay.
    VIX 15 November futures, which perish tomorrow, are currently $11.40
    the price of VIX 15 December stocks are currently $12.45
    so you don't pay only the disperse each month with rolling over the contract to the new month,
    but also a time corrosion, in this instance $ 1.05 per contract.

  10. #40
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    quote however to roll over to the next monthly contract will be quite costly. Assume you have to wait 2 years after buying your trades @ $11.00 to get a lot of volatility: 24x roll over @ 0.15 disperse = $ 3.60 suddenly your average price is $14.60!
    Hi Y. Sorry mate...I missed these articles probably because of frolicking too much over the festive season. Have a look at CFD's on the underlying commodity like the offerings by Pepperstone at which there are no interest holding prices. This avoids the issue you raised concerning futures rolls. I hope you had a great New Years:-)

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
This website uses cookies
We use cookies to store session information to facilitate remembering your login information, to allow you to save website preferences, to personalise content and ads, to provide social media features and to analyse our traffic. We also share information about your use of our site with our social media, advertising and analytics partners more information