Playing Russian Roulette with Martingales - Page 2
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Thread: Playing Russian Roulette with Martingales

  1. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    quote Yes, thats about it, and kinda my plan. . .though I have to admit I often screw up for many reasons. Lots of these are pretty ridiculous, like - that I win in poker - so I martingale market heavy and fack .not like I was superpro, but paying lease so far. This system would work in case you'd set pending orders, although entering manually, is very difficult to stay on predefined SL percentage whilst using martingale. But regarding system, I dont martingale that much my opened position, but rather shoot more once my very first level of SL gets cut and market...
    Nice things Tom. :--RRB- I will see what it is you are doing and it is logical to me.

    The reason I believe statistics plays out in your favour when studying the longer timeframe in a nutshell is this.The fundamental unit of data on a Foreign Exchange pair is the tick. This comprises an indeterminate order quantity; When you scale up to this M1 chart, the summation of those ticks produces a normal price on M1 which comprises those market orders during an interval of a minute. There is not much sense to be gathered at the microlevel where coordinated price action is acting. At this level, market noise rules supreme due to the varying objevtives of this participant but produces patterns that we believe are repeatable and represent non-random price motion. When I talk of'arbitrary' here it really isn't arbitrary but a trader lacks perfect information of all of the different goals surrounding every particpant in creating their trading choice during this minute. Some are reasonable market participants whereas many others are irrational. Some are associations that have risk management goals at the back of the mind, a few are speculators like us ....some are traders who are forced to liquidate due to bankruptcy:--LRB- As you step out in timeframe you get a better sense however of where collective agreement is occurring through market participants simply due to the summation of a huge quantity of price data to gain an understanding of where price is jointly dring towards. This is simply due to the fact that as we scale up we progressively collect more price action of those participants in an attempt to forecast where price will proceed. Clearly the highest timeframe therefore should describe where consensus is in regard to price management. That timeframe for practical purposes is the MN timeframe and theoretically this is really where fundamental economics principles as opposed to the objectives of the individual market participants. Participants who are looking to play a game of death against the MN timeframe (the huge shorts for instance ) have balls of steel. It would be a gesture to try to go against this collective price directional bias. Of course you are able to use methods of undersold/overbought to perform a retracement game in this timeframe, but not to recognise the direction in the grand order of things is simply folly if you want to remain in the game quite a while. #8203;If those assumptions have some merit, then within this overall price management of the MN period in your mind, you will find better points than other people to try an entrance to make the most of this collective price bias and typically this happens at retracements in the greater order timeframe. If you revert to the H1 or D1 timeframe on entrance you only have to accept that there is a fair bit of noise at the level but the balance of probability is in your favour that provided you take heed of this macro timeframe and trade in that way, you should be more times than wrong and this is where a Martingale entrance system may be used to magnify returns provided you don't go mad with it.

    Your egy above is applying those princiles, so I'm totally on board with what you are trying to achieve here:-)

  2. #12
    Each of the papers and research related to financial markets tells us the market is efficient.i believe this really is a truth.

    When price goes in 1 direction with greater acceleration with out retracing it generally isn't efficient.regardless of this t/frame it can be days or hours .price doesn't need to retrace to recover efficiency .the longer this state remains the more a corrective state is growing in probability.the market will always recover efficiency.if you know that the% of the efficiency for various price swings we can trade this using sub martingale.this corrective state is the ranges. If you're able to determine the return of price for collective price values,pips you're able to determine that price band whilst price regains its efficacy .price returns 68% of the time within a range of 0 to 30 pips.think about this .its really efficient.

    Something which would make this positive for sub martingale is using the greater probability of prolonged range and its own depth whilst reducing the number of extreme positions which black swan us.

  3. #13
    Merely to add to my post.most trading systems eventually fail because of the reason.there are to things we will need to look at that are entirely separated.the system that generates signals .and the market mechanisms its efficient truth.

  4. #14
    Is your martingale restricted to a certain level? What would you do if you reach level 12 (1-2-4-8-16-32-64-128-256-512-10024-2048 )? What do you consider anti-martingale? I have to admit that I adore martingale tho.

  5. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    hello, Is your martingale capped to a certain degree? What could you do if you get to level 12 (1-2-4-8-16-32-64-128-256-512-10024-2048 )? What do you consider anti-martingale? I have to admit that I adore martingale tho.
    When employing the martingale it's probably a smart egy to not overdo it. Consider a Martingale because a form of retracement entrance when you're certain you're investing in the direction of positive prejudice perhaps of 3 to 4 levels (restricted by a stop condition you would naturally use for a single trade entrance ). What you therefore do is divide that typical stop space to the amount of levels you want to apply and then apply the development entrance to it. What it is you are trying to accomplish is a good average price on entrance without overdoing it. You don't have to apply a rigorous doubling up methodology such as 1,2,4,8 but instead a progressive slower construct to a maximum endurance of 1,2,3,4 or anything like this. Anti-Martingales are great when progressing with profits. The Snowball described in this forum is really a worthy candidate to consider.

  6. #16
    Great info thanks. Its funny that you say Snowball because I found it just days ago and tbh I dont uderstand that the method/thread.

  7. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Great information thanks. Its funny that you mention Snowball since I discovered it only days past and tbh I still dont uderstand the method/thread.
    You need to play with it for a while and after that you will find the jist. :--RRB-

    It is a particularly strong progression method to take advantage of powerful momentum or innovative momentum accelerating tendencies. A true handy device to magnify returns supplied you use it with discretion. I find the Snowball an excellent choice when attempting to employ mean reversion or breakout methods. It basically uses a machine gun for entrance (scaled entrance into a trade) as opposed to some sniper single trade entry thereby within the Law of Big Amounts compounds returns from favorable bias.

    In the event that you however are trading tendencies with a minimal momentum (a slow and steady tendency ) then you figure out how to breakeven with Snowball and that's about it. This is because your average price of transactions using the progression remains close to actual price over time. An exponentially growing trend nonetheless using a positive slope (long) or negative slope (short) is where Snowball comes into its own, or when a news event increases momentum considerably allowing the average price to significantly depart from breakeven.

    For instance a robust trading egy with optimistic bias that over say 20 years has a 9% return on a 10% drawdown can be accelerated to some 30-40% return with a comparable drawdown using anti-martingale progressions such as Snowball that benefit from volatile (powerful momentum) intervals.

    Anti-Martingales (including the Snowball) are the antithesis of Martingales in that the substantial profit result is seldom but the bleed (death by a thousand cuts) is slow. For powerful Martingales the profit build is quite slow and also the killer blow is significant. But both methods have their uses when you are trading the non-random ramble over long timespans provided you keep a lid on risk.

    PS The Anti-Martingale respects the principle of letting profits run and cutting losses short whereas the Martingale is the exact opposite. As a principle, I prefer the Anti-Martingale as it's program is wide but there are specific cases where (mild ) Martingale progressions may be used for good effect as entrance methods.

  8. #18
    Martingale - shedding egy. If you want to earn decent money, have stable and lengthy trading - forget about the Martingale method and do not even recall. I should also note that using of hybrid Martingale in conjunction with a good trading egy can make you a good profit. Butunfortunately, I know very few such circumstances.

  9. #19
    Hello men
    I am using a this particular system.
    It really worked for me.
    Over 1000 pips in only weeks.

    Please check it
    It helps to get out of the rat life. Now I have a good platform for forex. And I wish to talk about with you

  10. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    quote I am considering the averaging down/martingale thing just now, it appears that it's the quickest way to grow a small account. Here's the idea... I would choose the pair/instrument that tends to move strongly in one direction. . It's not necessary to diversify, just one pair/instrument. Then I would put. No multiplier, standing size would be based on equity. I would deal with every position separatelly and shut it if it's 20-30 pips in profit, never in reduction. Start around when I am up 500%, no...
    oh men. I deleted my prior post as it had been an ill conceived brain fart with a fundamental weakness. Carry On Sergeant Major:-)

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