Flippy method - Page 3
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Thread: Flippy method

  1. #21

  2. #22
    january 2005 backtest - dec 2005 to get flippy with ROC.

    Using generic rules (should work to keep minimum drawdown in almost any market forms ):

    1. Opposite direction trades never exist.
    2. On 3 lines formed, input support/resistance breakout, just if price is coming from reverse support/resistance direction.
    3. On two lines formed, input pivot(yellow lines) breakout, just if if price come from present support/resistance direction.
    3. Fixed first SL 50 pips. Open 2 order at one time, each utilize half of risk size.
    (if risk is 1%, each place utilize 0.5% risk)
    4. Every new day, proceed 1 order sl to activate line (ie. If entrance is from yellowish breakout, proceed to yellowish each new day, if activate is red/blue proceed to red/blue each new day)
    5. Another open order usage mended 1/1 ratio.
    6. When opening buy/sell cease order look at rules 1. When there's existing trade that has not been closed, don't input stop order.

    Backtest is utilizing alpari background information. Using 1% risk each transaction. Max drawdown listed in 2005 is around 4 - 5 percent. Backtest is completed, please see next article for outcome.

  3. #23
    completed backtest finally.

    Consequence of guide backtest from jan2005

    trades with 1/1 risk reward:
    total trades = 226
    gain = 134
    loss = 92
    pips profit = 6700
    pips loss = 4600
    average profit ratio = 1.46

    trades with open TP:
    win = 86
    loss = 140
    pips profit = 10982
    pips loss = 4600
    average profit ratio = 1.25

    equity risked each trade = 1%
    balance over 2 years = 210 percent
    max drawdown = around 5 percent

    this backtest with'generic' rules, no adjustment for trending/ranging market. It does miss some of large moves it captured any whipsaw, but all in allit manage to keep low drawdown.

    I shall post several examples of the generic rules entry depart in chart screenshot later.

  4. #24
    sample #1

    A. 3 lines. Dont enter buy stop here, price doesn't hit blue lines before red lines breakout.
    B. 3 lines. Input two sell stop order here, price hit red lines until this blue breakout. Put initial SL 50 pips for the order. Put TP 50 for 1 order, another maintain open TP.
    C. Both short entry ceased out. We dont move open TP order SL to blue lines, because it's greater value than original SL.
    D. 2 lines. As we have no order. And price hit blue prior to breakout. We enter 2 buy stop order @ yellow lines.
    E. 1st buy order hit 50 TP.
    F. yellow lines worth still below first TP by 1 stage, we wont move SL to this respect yet
    G. yellow lines worth is above initial TP. TP moves to yellow lines.
    H. Exit manually at start of day, because price has moved beneath yellow lines already.

  5. #25
    sample #2 (whipsawed, no need to worry, my backtest include all types of this whipsaw, it squeezed some and got hit by some whipsaw. Still manage to keep low drawdown)

    A. 3 traces. Price hasn't hit lines yet. Don't enter buy stop order.
    B. 3 traces. Price has hit lines before. Enter 2 sell stop order.
    C. 3 traces. Price has hit blue lines enter 2 buy stop order here. Previous short order closed out at buy stop stage.
    D. 3 traces. Price has hit lines before. Enter 2 sell stop order. Prev long order closed out.

    1 short order hit TP 50 pips. Next day move SL to gloomy lines (we input at gloomy lines breakout trigger on this brief )

    E. another short order stopped out at blue lines.
    F. no open orders. 3 lines. 2 Buy stop order hitted here.
    G. 3 traces. Both long order stopped out. 2 sell stop order hitted here. 1 hit TP, and also another move it SL to gloomy lines each day (blue line breakout activate )
    H. manually depart 2nd short order. Price has opened over blue lines already.

  6. #26
    sample #4

    sometime this generic rules dodging whipsaws

    A. We've got two orders here.
    B. 1st long order hit TP @ 50 pips.
    C. 2nd long order with open TP stopped out @ -45 pips. Survived out of reduction.
    D. no brief order started, price has not struck red lines before.
    E. two long order started.
    F. 1 extended order with open TP stopped out, as price opened under red lines.
    G. the other long order hit 50 pips TP. Survived from reduction.
    H. 3 traces, no open order, entered two brief here. 1 struck 50 tp, the other pursuing the profits.

  7. #27
    The reason why I use 2 kind of order is to lock breakeven decreasing the'profit runner' order possibility of being stopped by spikes.

    Since I mention it before, for experienced traders, you may want to use daily trendline breaks, chart patterns, and also candlestick pattern to filter that box breakout you would like to take. I am sure it'll filter a lot of breaks. This boxes its only a tool to simplified TP/SL and entrances.

    This indior yellowish lines is actualy 2 preceding day pivot. I use it as initial guide line for entry trigger. Filtered with ROC indior. Thats why 2 kinds of entry: 2 lines, and 3 lines. 2 lines entry is going to be triggered if there is strong moves that breaks that trickle line. 3 lines entry exist when ROC worth is about ROC equilibrium point, thus why the trigger has to come from opposite support/trendlines, to confirm breakout strength in a price consolidation area. (roc hanging about @ balance ~ price consolidating)

  8. #28
    Haha, only have read another thread that ask for MM.

    Well, this method is implementing everything you guys have taught to me about trading.

    1. It cut it decreases @ % risk equity value for trades.
    2. It locked breakeven value.
    3. It minimize chance of being chased out for the transaction that is winning.
    4. It do not open two opposite trades mainly. Because bull bear wont discuss a space.
    5. It attempt to discover'change'. Because the only consistent things that occurs in market is'change'. Not a trend nor anything else. Trend begins @ these'change' stage.
    6. It attempt to take identical direction of current market sentiment in the beginning stage, it doesnt look back historic high low etc.. When it went wrong, it will closed out.
    7. It run the profit until there is another'change' happening

    Thanks for you for all these priceless lessons.

  9. #29
    Hi dutdot,

    thanks for sharing your work. Look really fine.

    Could you explain me how you're using the ROC in your backtest.



  10. #30
    ROC Rate of Change percent = (Y-Yx)/ / Yx

    Y represents the latest closing price, also Yx represents the final price a specific number of days ago. Consequently, if the price of a stock closes higher now than it did 10 days ago, the ROC worth point will be above the equilibrium.

    I use ROC indior as internal customized indior within flippy. Using x = 24 (24 hour ago in H1 charts). So that I could compare rate of change on yesterday 2 days ago near.

    As we see in chart. When market is going to retrace, acquiring a'ross hook' or enter ranging condition generally we see ROC[24] is hanging around 0 worth as prices slowing . To filter out of this ailment I select value between -0.3 and 0.3 as momentum slowdown.

    When ROC is involving this value, flippy indior will draw 3 lines to spot'ranging box' for that day. To validate that box breakout, I want a good momentum price movement. Thats why my principles are open cease order, if prices must touch the other side of this box when 3 traces exist. I dont want to risk trade on fake breakouts from ranging/consolidation region with low momentum.

    On the flip side, when ROC is above or below -0.3 to 0.3 worth range, flippy will draw 2 lines only. Any breakout to yellow lines from indied direction (red line is a possible brief breakout, blue is long), is considered as potentially strong movement which may indie a trend change. (envision, when ROC[24] is switching from above to below it maybe creating an abysmal candle when viewed in daily chart right?

    Hope that clarify things. Cheers.

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