The Coin Trade System aka Flip The Coin - Page 3
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Thread: The Coin Trade System aka Flip The Coin

  1. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Ahhh, I don't think that's ideal. It's been awhile since I took chance (I am sure if you want to know the mathematics of why your wrong, we could look it up), but for today I conducted a simulation of coin tosses. Ran both instances 10,000 times.

    Should you flip a coin 10,000 times and stay with heads you win ~50% of the time. Should you flip two coins 10,000 times, they fit ~50% of their time.
    Should you flip 2 coins the probable results are HH, HT, TH, and TT.

    Now think about trading.

    In the event that you merely pick heads, you'll be right half the time OVER THE LONG HAUL.

    Should you flip a coin to pick heads or tails, you could have one heck of a losing streak or miss out on one heck of a win series.

    I believe you proved my point. By choosing random entries the chances do not improve.

    Trading is a game of survival.

    Select the worse possible beginning bar for long entries. SL = 10 pips. How many losers in a row? 4? 5?

    How many champions did it take to break even? 1? 2? 3?

    Remember, you do not trade 24 hours per day, 5 days a week.

  2. #22
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    should you flip 2 coins the possible outcomes are HH, HT, TH, and TT.

    Now think about trading.

    In case you merely pick heads, you will be right half the time OVER THE LONG HAUL.

    Should you flip a coin to choose heads or tails, you could have one hell of a losing streak or overlook one hell of a win streak.

    I think you proved my point....
    Depends if you think the moves in the market are random. If moves are random, then again, it doesn't matter whether you remain long or flip a coin. By choosing heads consistently, if the solution is a run of tails, you hit the same long losing streak.

    BTW, another experiment I ran is exactly what are the chances on the daily time period that an upward day will be followed by another up day or a daily. The solution is that for many major pairs its about the same odds, with a slightly better opportunity for a reverse in direction.

  3. #23
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    If you should stick with on leadership for the rest of your life. . .lets state Long, Everytrade you made the rest of your life would have a 50/50 chance.

    But if you go forth and back in your head between long and short....and that the market is going forth and back... guess what. . .it isn't 50/50 its 25 percent

    If in vegas, you sit a table which has a reddish or black option. . .baring luck over x trials. . .you ought to be.

    Should you sit at that same table. .and select just 1 colour, lets say red. . .over exactly the identical period as previously, you ought to be nearer...
    If it is correct that trading in 1 direction makes the chances 50/50, then perhaps the best thing to do is for someone to try out this theory by trading in just 1 direction. You might have at least a 2:1 risk-reward ratio and also allow the chances play out themselves.

    Does this seem like a fantastic plan?


    (edit: Hi, I just noticed that this is my 100th post. Time to celebrate! lol)

  4. #24
    There is a critical flaw in this idea and that is, it is not the entrance but the departure which makes or breaks a transaction.

  5. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    There is a serious flaw in this thought which is, it is not the entrance but the departure which makes or breaks a trade.
    Yeh but you won't get as many good exits in case your entrance blows .

  6. #26
    I happened to come across this interesting article that was published over a week ago concerning the likelihood of a coin toss. This thread came to mind when I read this report, since the article fits in rather nicely with this thread.

  7. #27
    With the exclusion of spreads, at an actual textbook-efficient, ranging market, without a trend and equal space between s/l and t/p, the odds of finding a winning commerce aren't 25%. The odds will be 50/50.

    If it were true that the odds were 25%, then we would simply use the reverse the coin model because a contra indior, where we take the reverse transaction to the signal provided, as our odds of each transaction bein a winning transaction, by definition, will need to be 75 percent.

  8. #28
    BTW. We don't care about the next. NONE.

    price action
    magic numbers like sweet spots and fibos
    retracement amounts

    as well as the derivatives of those:
    the countles indiors of different families.

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