
Originally Posted by
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then using a coin toss. .
Its not 50% . . .it is 25%....here is why....
The market is a 50/50 %....up or down
Your choice ( analysis, coin toss, etc.). . .50 /50 percent
The error is that people think that there coin toss is a 50/50 chance of being correct....IT IS 25%
Because it's .50X .50 = .25 percent
If you should stick with on direction for the remainder of your life. . .lets state Long, Everytrade you made the remainder of your life could have a 50/50 chance.
But if you go back and forth in your head between short and long....and the market is going back and forth... guess what. . .it is not 50/50 its 25%
If in vegas, you sit a desk that has a red or black option. . .baring luck over x trials. . .you should be @ 25% right.
Should you sit at that same table. .and pick just one colour, lets say red. . .over exactly the identical period as above, you should be nearer to 50 percent
Vegas lays a contract out on anyone brings up this topic