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Thread: Set and Forget

  1. #21
    Month End April 2018

    The last trading day of the month saw a small drop in equity (slightly exaggerated in the chart), but overall an excellent month. Actually the 2nd best month yet about percent profit in equity!

    The AUD account is currently sitting at $19938up 9.5percent for the month. Drawdown is currently at 2.3%. IRR for the last 12 weeks is 31.1% so monitoring very nicely.

    The AUDNZD is currently at 1.0705, so overall we were up 9.9percent for the month, and 5.4percent YTD.

    I will be creating a $500 deposit into the NZD account today.

  2. #22
    Week End 05May18

    A bit of a mixed week , not too far variance about the account in the long run. We put 9 orders and all have been taken. You will find 7 TPs hit, so above target, which leaves us with 12 trades available. For the week we were down 0.4% equity at the AUD account. And MTD at the first couple of days we're up 0.1%. Drawdown in this account is at 3.1%, using Margin Used at 19 percent of NAV.

    Total, with the small gain in the AUDNZD to 1.0740, the entire account is up 0.4percent for the month to date, and drawdown is at 2.4%.

    I've the impression that the AUD has, at least for today, bottomed out, and that we'll see some upward movement in the AUD pairs. In AUDNZD by way of example, it has been ranging at the 1.07 mark for a couple of weeks now, and contains just seemed to break out of there on the upside. But then, that's just my opinion and only has a 50% chance of being right

    IRR about the AUD account throughout the last 12 months is over goal at 33.1%, also YTD for 2018 we're up 8.5percent (although only 5.8percent in overall NZD terms given the higher NZD during that period - I need to build up the NZD portion).

    My goal is to get NZD40,000 (involving both accounts) by Xmas.

  3. #23
    Hello Xeniz,

    as discussed previously, in case it's of any interest for you.
    It is intriguing in a positive way, and makes sense even if quite unusual.


    Thanks again for your interesting thread, and I want you to keep up the positive consequences on the very long run.


  4. #24
    Thanks J-F,

    Some fascinating reading, and in ways I suppose that is what I came to realise - the stop-losses I had been setting were really causing me to lose money, and given lot dimensions and risk is handled, you do not need to set specific stoplosses. You trades in reduction.

    I did not quite comprehend exactly what he was referring to re confident swap though. While I could get favorable swap on Oanda with a couple of pairs (either long or short, but not both of course), in the majority of cases I pay attention irrespective of my position given the different interest rates they offer. For example the adverse swap I pay on EURNZD when I go long is 5 times the favorable swap I get when I brief it. With AUDCAD, the two rankings have negative swap - when I am long I pay about 2/3 the attention in comparison to what it would be when I had been short.

    Perhaps it depends on his broker.

    The finance charges are in fact quite expensive IMO. On this AUD account for instance, I've made a gross profit of around $6500 so far after total deposits of $15000, however, the balance is currently at $20600 - so roughly $900 in swap interest.

    Overall I like his philosophy, however, and it seems that he has discovered what works for him, which is fantastic. Also some very real truths also, which many of us, as complete newbies, did not want to hear or just ignored at our peril...

  5. #25
    Week ending 12May18

    Last week didn't start well, with a few huge drops early in the week, just to see many transactions inverse by Thursday and also be nicely up (together with the advancement in AUD I was expecting), then for items to pull back a little again on Friday (mostly Soybeans and Corn). So rather a roller coaster week - in the end we all had a 1.1percent gain in equity. 7 transactions placed, all accepted, and 7 TPs hit.

    I also closed the long NZDJPY trade at a $100 reduction as it wasn't looking like it was going to return, and in fact I shouldn't have taken it at the first place since it was actually outside the parameters needed (human mistake on my part). This pair has formed a bit of a descending triangle on the daily/weekly chart too, and could absolutely drop away if it breaks through that strong support at 76.00. So shut and staying outside.

    So about the AUD accountup 1.1percent for the week, 1.2percent MTD, 10.8percent QTD, and 33.6percent IRR over the last 12months. Drawdown at 2.5 percent, and margin used is under 15% of NAV.

    Entire in NZD funding, also because of the more powerful AUD, up 1.8percent for the week, 2.2percent MTD, 12.1percent QTD and approx 7.6% since the start of the year. Total drawdown is just 1.4%, which is quite low.

    Pretty good numbers all round, and happy with progress thus far . Still waiting for a little more upside in the AUD before withdrawing any funds in the AUD account and bringing them across into NZD.

  6. #26
    Week end 19May18

    Another very erratic week, together with equity jumping all over the place. Following a sharp drop at the beginning, towards week end we had been up significantly as AUD and Soybeans specifically regained good ground, and that I had a few CAD and EUR TPs hit, but again at the end the rest dropped back.

    In the long run, a marginally losing weekdown 0.3% at fairness, and MTD we're currently only up about 0.9 percent, a bit under target. We had 6 orders taken of this 7 placed, and 5 TPs hit. Currently, margin employed is about 15% of NAV, and there are 12 trades available, the earliest being the AUDSGD and EURSGD out of mid-April. Drawdown on the AUD account is sitting at 3.5%. IRR during the previous 12 months remains within target, at 32.8 percent.

    Overall, since the AUDNZD gained some more ground this week (getting up to around 1.0925 before falling straight back), overall drop in dividend was 0.1 percent, and MTD we're up 2.1%. Total drawdown is at 3.5%, so very manageable.

    Since drawdown remains low, and greatest ever so far was about 13.2 percent, I am considering raising the TP aims to 0.2percent per trade (up from the current 0.15percent ). I will look at this at month end. As well, if the AUDNZD gets nearer to 1.1000, I will withdraw funds from your AUD account.

  7. #27
    A stop is always there. No stop means stop is 100 percent of funds. Risking 100% each week to create 0.5% is absurd, and calling it a holy grail is worse. . I hope you get the point. With great luck, you can remain over water for a few years, but think very carefully in the event that you have a sustainable advantage. Since losing a lot of time is much worse than losing a lot of cash. Systems with such parameters are extremely tricky and play along with your mind. The market give a little many occasions, but eventually takes what it's to take with a delay. Wish you good luck!

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