Exactly. The deal is to focus on price and understand what it is telling us.Originally Posted by ;
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Exactly. The deal is to focus on price and understand what it is telling us.
Very interesting perspective from a coder. You probably have a fantastic experience of indiors. Do you mean that all the indiors you write for other individuals dont functions?
I think that PA is similar to indiors, sometimes works, sometimes dont. However, you're right when you stated that all depend on price.
I expect that there is yet another understanding of trading...
You are right. And this is why indiors exist. Because there continue to be traders who utilize successfully indiors.
You have to examine your assumption before it is possible to determine whether your decision is right.
By definition professionals and instutions are good at what they're doing. If they were not able to make a profit on trading, then they would not do it. This is business feeling. A 50/50 implies that there's ALWAYS A LOSER. There'll NEVER BE A LOSER, because if they were shedding, THEY WOULD NOT TRADE. Until there aren't any more losers, A LOSER WILL BE ELIMINATED. It makes no business sense to always lose. Professionals and banks, are by definition, not suckers.
Hence, the market isn't a 50/50 match among banks and professionals. Rather, it is a game where anyone can acquire and the market will continue to function.
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You say that the results of a system is arbitrary. But you say that can attain success. So logically is a non-random method of achieving success. Since the definition of a system is a method of consciously assessing the market in order to win the professionals should be following a system.
I know you mean that approaches are trading methods which follow strict rules/indiors. This does not need to be the case. That is because the human mind latches on a language (a way of thinking/system). Subsequently it fills out the details so that the language (by way of example supply/demand) follows the very fact of the market, like once you learn your native language. In order to do this, of course the person must step out of the shadows and acknowledge that he/she needs to learn from the market, and not some fantasy. The funny thing is that fantasy is possible once this is done.
There are lots of successful traders who have written about their shared and success. By way of example,see that ratios and harmonics thread.
I can understand this is a hard concept to understand, maybe the best way to work out the problem is to simply examine and comprehend what markets are and how they works.
To make a long story short (long/short, lol), we've got the price, the requirement on the bid and below, the deal to the ask and above.
Whenever price go up, some active trader is buying what the passive traders (market manufacturers and other traders) are offering on the ask price and above.
When price return, some active trader is promoting what the passive traders are demanding on the bid and below.
Anytime the price move upwards, a buyer have purchased, a seller have sold.
Anytime the price move down, a seller have sold, a buyer have purchased.
When price go up of let's say 10 pips, a huge amount of traders (or only one trader with a huge capital) have purchased, and a huge amount of traders have sold.
Today, everytime price do move, somebody is having a reduction inflated, and somebody is getting a profit growing.
The moral of the story is, anytime price movement , up or down, you will find sellers that have sold, and buyers who have purchased, in any given time in the market you will find still an amount of opened market positions and buy places, in any given time you will find partecipants earning money and partecipants loosing money, the amount of profits of these winners is precisely the sum of money that loosers are loosing.
The thought that the amount of profits is bigger than the amount of losses is simply heretical and pure insanity.
I don't like to compare the financial markets to poker, but in this instance poker could be useful, just think about a poker game, for example:
5 partecipants, all them put 10k usd of funds. ***They ALL are professional poker players.
Now, in the game there are exactly 50k, there will be some winners, there will be several winners, the sum of money that the winners can make is precisely the quantity of money that winners can shed. It's 50k in the sport, mathematical, some have to win, some need to lose. They're all professional, they aren't suckers, they all play from 10 years and understand the principles and the game's tricks, anyhow in order for somebody some other need to loose. A situation where everyone magically win 50k is not possible.
In the markets the same do use, the quantity of money in the financial markets is not a magic infinite amount, it's rather the specific quantity of money that each of the partecipants taken with their trades. If somebody make a million dollar profit, someplace on earth there should be somebody (or the amount of many) that have suffered a million dollar reduction.
The problem of the notion here is that today financial markets operate on a global scale, therefore maybe the today profit of a japanese investment bank is that the reduction of a canadian hedgefund, we've got partecipants from all over the world that participate in this huge monetary orgy 24h/24h, there are hundreds of major monetary instruments connected, it's easy to lose orientation and forget about the laws of physics.
With this I still don't care where do my profits comes out, or in who's pocket my losses goes, the significance of this idea is the fact that it's mathematically impossible to get more winners than loosers (in terms of profits/losses), the profits/losses ratio is precisely 1:1.
Banks and professionals really do lose money, more, banks loose soo much that wind up bankrupt, evaporating the savings of thousands of families that are oblivious.
When there are too many private (households ) savings on bet, authorities are forced to save the bank, provide her moneys in order to not destroy thousands of households, commercial activites, etc., this is what happen with bailouts.
The whole banking sector is right now at the verge of collapse due to bloated losses gathered in the years and huge leverage vulnerability (yeah they also use big leverage).
The largest central banks of the world (fed, boe, boj, ecb etc.) are costantly pumping liquidity in the banks to keep them afloat.
And due to the orgy nature of their financial markets, we have often the chain-reaction situation, when a bank is forced to liquidate an advantage (kind of margin call) and market a market, price return, making different banks having huge losses, some becoming forced to liquidate also, and letting the market collapse even more, letting different banks in trouble, etc..
Quite simply, what happen during the fiscal crises, what happen with the bubbles that pops, what may happen soon again on the equities.
Even Warren Buffet, the most famous and sophistied investor, had different years closed in reduction, at the order of billions of $.
The consequences like some may understanding is simply a fable, it don't exist.
The first truth of the game is that no matter what, nobody understand where market is moving, as well as the best ones do have huge declines from time to time, sometime the best ones goes broke (the best traders, the best banks, the very best hedgefunds, no one is safe).
This is an important myth to debunk, the myth the professional always triumph, they understand where price will go, they have some kind of unique system or particular understanding. It's not true.
I am willing to let this thread go in a particular direction, a strong and pragmatic direction which will open the eyes and will alter the entire life of who will comprehend it, but in order to comprehend what's true we want first to point out and comprehend what is not true, that is why I am hitting the no holy grail no strategy no constantly win professionals too loose switches, before move forward we need to completly erase each of the incorrect concepts and belifs, since in this business an erroneous concept/belif will make at some stage the difference between victory and defeat.
in the long run, it doesnt matter does it, because I know you are wrong.
There is no truth in the game, only your own truth.
Good luck presuming you cant be consistent at Currency Market, thats the most damaging belief you can have if you would like to be, I dont know, consistent and make a living from Currency Market.
Your whole ideals starve themselves, not because they are not well thought out, but since the core ideal you have been arguing has already been shown to be untrue by hundreds of generations of traders whos only job have been trading.
Your fantasy is that you think its impossible. IMPOSSIBLE TO BE CONSISTENT. IT IS WRONG, although you will argue that point. Why?
Existence proof: there is always profitable traders.
The ending. Thats all I got
No more philosophy from me, im backing out since we dont agree.
(btw I know what you do. You are being doomed. You are stating that the very first step in becoming profitable is to think you cant be always profitable, and the sole goal of this statement is to get rid of some other subsidiary beliefs/myths that people have which make them fail.)
Actually my point is not that is impossible to be constant, it's possible, and it's likely to create a dwelling with trading, it's possible to construct a massive capital beginning from scratch.
My point was just that not everyone can make consistent profits, aka there has to be a few suckers that pay. (again, the market is soo big that who really cares who's the sucker?)
The important thing is not to be the sucker, it can happen to float from time to time, even to the always profitable traders, which was another stage.
A massive post to create a few points, and at the end I see it finished up in big confusion, sorry eheh.
I'd say this constantly profitability zero sum game professionals vs retail etc. stuff has been covered enough, no more philosophy.
(yes a powerful enough winning streak can de-stabilize everyone, unconsciously letting belive that no reduction can ever been made anymore, and that is the beginning of the end of the consistency. Is very important to always be attentive, when you belive that you have finally reached the consequences, let your guard down, shit happen).
consented, I had fun though enough of this though!
I had been thinking, seriously, what type of contribution can be given to the community with this thread.
Well, honestly I don't think there (at least from me) can be any appropriate participation, yes we can continue with philosophical talks about different aspect of trading, then go on with the market itself, the plogy of this trader, and this and that. .
However, is really something new? Probably not.
The success do not stand within any facet of trading itself, the achievement comes only from the capacity of the trader to decipher, see, the fact itself.
And this capacity move far past the trading world.
Perhaps we can explain this ability this understanding of the world around usas intellect.
Therefore, I only figured out that no matter what we can write here, any reader will decode the informations and possess his/her own personal understandment.
What do we say, I might complete this experiment using a simple set of advices/realizations that for me make up the achievement in trading:
1) nobody know if price goes down or up . (no matter what indior / system / analysis is being used)
2) the best method of make consistent profits is buy low and sell high
3) the best method of make consistent losses is buy high and sell low
4) leverage can be your very best friend in addition to your worst enemy
5) when there is a trend, don't trade against it
6) don't use strict stoplosses, don't forget the rule n° 1)
7) it is okay to buy more as price return, and sell more as price go up, keeping in mind to never go against rule n° 5)
That's all, thanks for your time spent here, I hope you all had some fun here.
As for me, it was really a huge pleasure!
Thanks spaceduck
Im going to add yet another thing
1. If you believe that the end of a swing can be called accurately even before it's begun, then you'll begin seeing success.
It doesn't matter if it is not true, all that matters is an unshakeable belief that the market is 100% deterministic, then you still start seeing more , more, and much more high probability setups. You will start to find the heartbeat of this market
Hey, perhaps the market can be predicted, regardless of what anyone says!
Heresy
But your mind needs a firm belief to fixate upon in order to guide it and throw away everything you dont want.
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