Why always thinking that trading needs complied dozen and rules of indiors. The price action is showing. Trade exactly what the price is telling you.Originally Posted by ;
The biggest deal is to understand exactly what you see on chart...
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Why always thinking that trading needs complied dozen and rules of indiors. The price action is showing. Trade exactly what the price is telling you.
The biggest deal is to understand exactly what you see on chart...
I will answer on what I think about that (EAs, moving average, only systems).
What I believe is, when trading after a system/method, you'll always be 1 step behind the market, sometime with some fortune some profit may come, but in the longrun is a carnage.
Market manufacturers (and large partecipants) do not care whatsoever about moving averages, Fibonacci, trendlines, indiors, candlestick formations, etc.. And sometime do not even care about datas.
Thus, all of this methods can work 1 day and may not work the day after, their outcomes are arbitrary (it is a very ugly truth, I understand ).
Sad. . !
Thanks for your answer. So do you know what they care about ? They trade? What are their strategy?
In your first post you stated that the ordinary discussion quality in FF is very poor... why? What are the most important things to learn to become a trader? You eventulay can oriented or concentrate your thread to something significant...
Some observations:
Disclamer: those are just personal guessing, personal opinions/observations, what I think is accurate.
1) With Theymean the market partecipants with capitals big enough to move the markets, we understand they are banks, authorities, hedge funds, pension funds. (etc?)
Two ) I am not sure they work together, I mean, there is absolutely no co-operation within them, this really is a zero-sum game so when someone make profits, some other is loosing money (this might not use the retail-world, but it do employ from the huge funds world).
3) the number of those partecipants is big, and there is a sort of anonymity on the market. This mean that if they it's a zero sum game, is not really like a competition, it's just free market (I win you lose, but who are you? I do not understand, and I do not care).
4) How they transaction, this is definitely the most fascinating point.
First, let's start saying they don't Always win, they don't have the ideal methodthey loose cash like retails do, they aren't all winners. In the end, when price go up, buyers are earning money, money is currently getting. In every moment, some of they is making huge profits, and huge sums are currently loosing. So, is never loose and a winner.
And this bring us on another point, their method.
5) They're soo many, and every one of them have their own way, enormous banks have trading desks with hudrends/thousands of traders, each of them using their own personal method, that like methods here in FF, sometime work, sometime not operate. Sometime profit, sometime reduction. Even the big banks, we know from time to time have reduction troubles, if they would have the ideal method and earn money all the time from the markets the financial crisis wouldn't exist, however...
however, the market is just a market, the sum of money on the market is the sum of the capitals invested by they, it is not an infinite number, and the market is not a separate thing, it cannot scientifically exist a technique that win all the time, it could be seen as a kind of unlimited goldmine from a retail perspective, but assessing it from a big fish perspective, the market is a restricted marketplace where no magical (method/holygrail) can exist.
Once I say the average conversation quality in FF is poor, I point to the fact that the majority of the talks here are all about systems methods indiors principles that no matter what, have Always a random outcome, add to it a predetermined stoploss, a MM (the more the capital the more the lotsize used), and mathematically there will be a ruin in the longrun.
No matter what the system, indior, rules, EAs, etc..
Thus, nobody have the holigrail, no one understand the futures (not systems or methods), nobody win all the time,
Yet there is still a massive number of tradable markets, many of them exist from centuries, and will continue to exist for centuries, being of extreme importance for its humanity and the Worldwide economy.
Quite simply, any system/method have a random outcome, but there must be something out there that is not soo random, otherwise the importance of markets will be not soo enormous (envision the worlds markets based on something random, unbeliveable).
That's the interesting thing, while some system/method have a random outcome, the market itself is not random at all, the charts of now are the very same charts of tomorrow's Yesterday, in the event the price today return is because some entities have sold enormous number of contracts (more than the buyers had been willing to buy at any given price), and also those short-contracts will be still there Tomorrow, and the day after, unless they'll be bought back, etc.. Any movement is real, is not something that magically disappear, it's a plot of countless enormous real trades (not demo ones) that are being opened and closed for a reason or another.
The ideal method do not exist, but from centuries there are traders that extracts constant profits from the markets, this is the paradox that encloses the significant thing a trader should understand.
The ribbon is open for and relaxing any comment/idea/discussion as Always
My system uses no indiors, but it does look at market occasions across pairs.
Exchange rates, as exhibited to retail traders, stay mathematically balanced across pairs; as such, it is almost impossible to profit from temporary market distortions. While it IS possible (I've done it), the profitable closures are so infrequent that one wonders: why bother?
Yet, occasionally pairs become aligned or grouped -- relative to their simultaneous position in any earlier point in time -- on one side or another of the family. I don't have any idea who drives this, or whether it is a event. I just know that it occurs. It is interpreted by me as a noteworthy market event; I see that I use it as a trigger to take particular logical activities inside a synthetic hedge and that it occurs a few times per week.
Almost all of the artificial hedges we see discussed on this particular forum website don't properly treat lot sizing based on exchange rates. Thus, the hedging properties that are assumed aren't there.
One time a trader knows how to set up a properly proportioned, or well-behaved hedge, he states Now what? Because there is hardly any movement, negative or positive.
Some action needs to be taken to trick the basket of trades into profit.
Think about what that might be. Clarity helps.
Spaceduck,
I believe there doesnt really exist a paradox. The markets are non-random also it is likely to extract profits from the market.
The reason it feels like a paradox is that the majority of people (on the internet) think some variant of the. It has to be true, if everybody thinks like this. The belief that Currency Market is a'zero-sum game' will help disperse this belief. It is not non-zero. If there is so many losers, than how the hell can the winners'equilibrium' the winners, (the winners/banks/pros use way way less money then the losers)?
However we could use an existential evidence to totally squash the perfect that constant profits are hopeless. There is always profitable traders.
The only reason many people dont really do well is because trading is currently unscientific. Traders who are great and are experienced chalk their success down to'experience.'
But if they decided to dissect their experience, they'd realize that there is nothing arbitrary about their instinct, and their intuition/method could be clarified precisely with a lot of work on their own part.
it is a zero-sum game, of course it is.
True 99% of retails loose cash, but the capital they move is soo little it really make no difference whatsoever in the market (without believing that most of retail brokers don't even put trades on the true market).
About the big traders, the istitutional ones, my guess is the winners/loosers balance is near the 50/50.
Retails aren't market partecipants, they are like people watching a football match and betting on it, their actions cannot at all influence the game, I see in the statistics here on forum for example, take gbpusd for example, complete 130 lots, what are 130 lots on gbpusd, they are being purchased and sold tens of thousands of times on any given second between the big players, retail trading have nothing to do with the true market, it's only passive betting.
So, the 95/99% loosers use on the retails, that's true. But on the professional/institutional level, my figure is most likely 50/50.
About the randomly of this market, of course the market isn't random, the outcome of a trade based on a system or method is arbitrary, and that's why 99% of retails are loosers (they embrace the system style of trading).
The distinction between the profitable traders as well as the loosers, is the loosers are secured in the system mentality, it's painful and scary to accept the idea that there aren't any magic systems.
The profitable (experienced) traders have after many years been made to accept that the system way of trading cannot get the job done, and that's the very first step for the achievement.
When in my very first post I've written the FF conversation quality is low, the significance of that is that year after year the average mindset is system established, the ones who trascend it, cease writing (of course, how do you write about something which isn't resumable on a method manner, with rules ).
This is why I opened this thread, I would like to try to in this thread, embrace a non-system non-method method of looking the market, slowly... attempting to keep it clear and detailed, but without sacrifice too many informations too quickly, that would produce a wave of confusion.
For now appears we are going great, the fundamental notions are getting explained thanks to the contribution of everyone.
Good job so far
Keep them coming
A non-system is a method
Seriously, do you mean PA? However, you could write about PA and restart it on a platform...
I have no idea what are you talking about.
But its quite interesting, I like trying to see the market in a different manner. All huge discovery have been made such as this, with differents eyes...
Once you begin to check out the market from a supply and demand point of view and don't possess 12 indi's on 400 charts - you're likely to confuse a lot of people
Richard farleigh - Taming the lion - - good book to read to open the mind, and get an idea on how the large players play.
Van Tharp - trade how to finacial freedom - - my book of choice, however, I'm a technical trader using a difference anyway.
Our aim as traders is not to try and decide which way the market will proceed, but to recognise when it is planning and join the journey, take our little calmness and get off before they realise we have hitched a ride and return to check our tickets.
I don't have any idea where this thread is or will proceed - but I like the thought process for this.
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