Thread: Advanced TST

EUR/GBP has been trending higher on the weekly chart:


The tendency is caused by a few things:

- Growing threat of Brexit
- ECB indicating that more easing may not be required
- BOE withdrawing from it's previous hawkish place, downgrading inflation forecasts several occasions


The daily chart shows price pulling back against the weekly tendency, into the 50 day EMA that it's admired before.
This pullback came ahead of Draghi's speech yesterday, but his address was much less dovish than expected, stating that current easing measures ought to be given a chance to operate, and inflation is expected to pick up.


So we've got a weekly trend driven by predictable fundamentals, a daily pullback into a service level, but the fundamental reasons for its weekly tendency are still there. This tells me the tendency is more likely than not to last.


Taking a look at the 4H chart, the last 8 candles reveal price making a sideways consolidation pattern:



Placing a buy order over the top of the range, S/L at the base of it and TP before major resistance.

Gold .... Weekly trend is upward, all major central banks are concurrently making dovish opinions:


Daily has pulled back to support, but the fundamental reason for the weekly trend hasn't changed:


4H chart shows a lot of interior bars, indicating the pullback may be exhausted:


Placing a buy stop order only above the top of the range, S/L beneath the bottom of it and T/P before following major resistance level:

Smikester simply posted this over from the DIBS thread, it rather nicely explains the breakouts I try to ch about the 4H charts:

Originally Posted by ;

Which brings me to my next point. This is a volatility break method out. There's nothing new about it. The subject is pubs that are hourly, but it could be 43 minute interior 127 interior pubs or bars. Compression or bars are all points of indecision. Donchian Channel or bollinger Band compression compression or simply using your eyes these sometimes form pubs and represent indecision. It doesn't take much imagination to realise that orders may develop above and beneath these points. The price will soar off in the direction of the main trend, but just when people are trading, usually throughout London and New York, and after a fracture that is false. Frequently the place is revisted or retested. That's the trade off these regions.

I try to go into the market when price flies off in the direction of the main trend, but just when the fundamental reason for the main trend is still there. The revisits or retests that Smikester cites also come into play, and that's why I leave the S/L away from the consolidation zone.... It also works in my favor, In the event the place is retested.

Outstanding stuff.

FF has it's share of BS that's simply to be expected in an environment in which lots of feel called but undoubtedly most aren't selected, but also over sufficient methodologies that can make you money when applied with subject like this gem .

Yet most will not make it.

Not due to the system, but because they prefer being right over making money and waste their lives forever on the lookout for a non-existent holy grail that never loses.

;-)

Agree with Dash.. .glad I took a peek at this thread trading I'm subscribed

Looks very interesting. Been looking for a way to unite FA and TA on time frames that are greater. Subscribed.
Do you look at any particular websites for your fundamental details? When it comes to getting fundamental information I am pretty much .

Hello,
first. . .GREAT THREAD....CONGRATS
a question Concerning the eur/gbp long installation,on your example
-exactly what do you do if what actually occurred. . .do you still remain in with your buy-stop,and can you trade the other hand of
consolidation (on h4) in the given position?

thanks,

Originally Posted by ;

Outstanding stuff. FF has it's share of BS that's simply to be expected in an environment....

Hi Dash, thanks for the kind words. I believe you're correct, you will find a handful of egies that are carefully made and will make profit if traded properly.... But most will drop out and switch to a system that is different as soon as the egy hits a drawdown. I've traded this method for around three years now, through intervals and some drawdowns, and it functions.

IMO, the best chance a trader has for success would be to select one system that makes sense according to what he/she understands about the market and about trading, and then commit to this one system for quite a while, several years . Learn everything you can about any one particular system.... When it works, when it does not work, why it works when it works and it does not work when it does not work.... Why each component of the system is designed the way it is, how different elements of the system net with one another, how it works in various market environments at different times . Leaping to the next every time things get tough from one method is the most certain path to failure.

Originally Posted by ;

Looks very interesting. Been looking for a way to combine FA and TA on time frames. Subscribed. Can you look at any websites for your fundamental information? If it comes to getting fundamental information I am pretty much nowhere.

Hi kaboemm,

I am hoping this thread will sort of evolve to incorporate an ongoing discussion of the basic fundamentals, so people who contribute here frequently will always have a handle on where every central bank is at and what it's likely to do next. When price begins , they will instantly know if the move has fundamental support or is only a technical glitch in price.

For now here is a couple of sites I make a habit of reading frequently:

Jarratt Davis's website.... Each Monday he places a'Currency Update' including where every central bank currently stands. I find it as accurate as another source:
http://www.jarrattdavis.com/blog/

Piponomics.... This daily site at babypips is well written and informative, create a habit of reading things kind of beginning and eventually it daily to generate sense. The author is extremely approachable too in the event you have any questions :
http://www.babypips.com/blogs/piponomics

FX Insights at BK Asset Management: Kathy Lien and Boris Schlossberg both contribute for this daily. It is a bit more technical but it's more thorough than the aforementioned sites:
http://www.bkassetmanagement.com/fx-insights/

Where do you locate COT charts? Thanks for this thread!