Thread: Trading the US Durables and New Home Sales

The EURO has weakened against the recently. It will be interesting to observe how the positioning goes prior to the Durable's and New Home Sales reports.

Both reports are predicted to show huge improvements from their previous readings, i.e. be $ . What you might be seeing here's what occurred with NZD prior to the Trade Bal report-traders buying the rumor. It is sitting at about 2685 so a lot of the rumor has been purchased. If it goes into the mid to 26's in the Asian and London sessions or later now. . .it will only serve to verify this.

The top scenarios to create some pips off these reports are as follows:

1. If the EUR yields to the low to mid 27's (or even higher) along with the reports do come out off consensus and much more $ , then they will be room for a pleasant down spike in the EUR.

2. If the rumor was purchased prior to the trade, (Eur staying in the top to mid 26's) along with the reports come out off consensus and $-. A wonderful huge gain in the EUR may be understood at there.

Thanx BK for the info you gave all of us. Wont be able to post here, and also hehe thing he will get hired by a fund. However, all jokes aside, great calls BK! Ill buy you a whopper meal to celebrate your amazing calls, hehe.

Originally Posted by ;

I've got the same LONG USD sentiment for the day. Call it SYMPATHY. I believe USD had been in the downs and traders are taking a bullish stance towards it.

Seeing that New Home Sales isn't a quick 1st minute mover (and compounded with IBFX's freeze), I chose to enter after the frenzy again (using NorthFinance).

As I posted before, when the 1st mintue spike is large, fade it.Well, it faded in the 2nd minute and I couldn't enter fast enough... So I waited for it to completely retrace and moved SHORT for 19 pips. .

I got in on the slow move down and inevitably made 12 on one lot and 10 on 2 lots

I call it great day...I also made 6 pips on the earlier release. Fantastic afternoon

For those of you that ONLY STRADDLE. . .learn to adapt man. . .you desire more than that one method to profit always

DC

I wont exchange US durable's sale againt, I a market USD and dropped 30 pips because I see that the actual value was far off the core range. BK should be listened to by me. This belongs to my journal.

Neither of these reports fulfilled my criteria and were no transactions for me.

The Durables came out at -.5, which meant there was an improvement from the amount, just not as much as I was searching for (and much less imp then consensus). I was hoping for either a reading of over 1.5 percent, or even a more negative reading, multiplying -5.5%.

Same thing with New Home Sales: that the amount revealed an improvement from the previous reading, but overall sales are still down. I was hoping either for a number that was negative then the reading, or a number.

I couple these $ readings with the fact that the reports had already been purchased into. There was no place for the EUR except that which we swings forth and back. I'm going to make a new thread for the Core PCE report on Friday. If you posted here and you are interested, please post.