Trend Trading - Page 9
Page 9 of 5020 FirstFirst ... 789101119 ... LastLast
Results 81 to 90 of 200

Thread: Trend Trading

  1. #81
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Trading if you have a directional bias, whether it is a full size trend or not, is of course great (if) you're able to reliably determine trend prejudice for at least 1 pair...
    Hey Spotrate. Glad to see you are currently doing well. So far as trend trading goes, I am only able to see what the trend was previously. My method assumes that the future is unknowable so I use simple methods to determine if a trend may exist currently in a pair. I'll attempt to exchange it, if it looks like it will. If I am correct, I'll attempt to remain in it add without giving back much of the profits. If I am wrong, I'll attempt to reduce my losses very short, typically about 1/3rd of my typical win. A trend can be found by me most days in the 28 pairs I follow. Of course, what looks like a trend on one timeframe may look like a reversion to imply on another, and the two perspectives can be considered correct. For instance, here is a 4 hr live chart of exactly what I identified as a powerful trend up on the EUR/GBP:

    If we look at the same pair on the Daily chart, we see a very clear reversion to imply:

    Someone like me trading that the trend would likely remain in this transaction or even add to it since the 4 hour chart shows it still moving upward. Someone trading reversion or counter trend to imply may consider this a good time to consider profit since price has made it back to imply. Both would enter the transaction, but their exits may be different, and of course, exits are where cash is lost or made. The market will determine who was right and who was wrong. Next time it may turn out the way that is opposite.

    Of course, price must always revert to imply eventually, otherwise it goes off to infinity or drop to zero, and both of those are very unlikely. The question is when will price revert to imply, and how much past the mean will it operate until it turns? Regrettably I do not have the foresight. That is why I'll stick to this trend until it stinks and depart with the majority of my profit when that happens. If I give back state 30 percent of my profit before I depart on a profound retracement and you simply take all your profits , then you may have the greater win on this round, but I am only able to exchange what I see and I am only able to look in the past to make my conclusions. Trading with these trends is only the best I know how to perform. Trying to exchange the two trend and counter trend would be very confusing to me, but in case you have mastered that art, I congratulate you. Happy trading! - G

  2. #82
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Just like people, as humans strive to look for balance in our own lives, so to does everything else from the weather to population growths and decay to all markets. There's a perpetual striving to look for balance. The forex market is no difference and we see that at the price action. In the event the market reflects a downward trend on a currency pair then we would all make money by shorting--right? A fat wrong! Everyone would be a millionaire if trends were a promise of making money. But it does not work like that. The price action is trying for balance....
    Nice chart! But what's your view on degree? I really don't find any S/R degree on your chart! Can you use support/resistant? Or avoid?

  3. #83
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    quote Nice chart! However, what#8217;s your view on support/resistant degree? I don#8217;t find any S/R degree in your chart! Do you utilize support/resistant? Or avoid?
    Wow, what a wonderful question. When I think of support and resistance the term in my mind is'history'. When there grows a S/R I draw a horizontal line and see if there is history going back five years or 2 years. Some go back ten years. So yes S/R is really important. I typically draw on trend lines that become a channel. Some of my graphs are very simplistic and gradually the S/R lines are put in. I really don't elaborate structures that you see. That is not to say they don't do the job, I like simple. Every trader develops their own indicators and what not. Generally I love to go as Straightforward as possible.

    When traders execute a history they frequently use the line chart of the price action as shown below simply for simplicity. I draw them thick because it reminds me support and resistance could be swath such as (thick) but sometime they are specific. They're easy to produce and it would not hurt to get a copy of it if you're considering S/R research. This chart I made is a 2 year look at the S/R.

    If you visit 3 or more things of S/R, that could demonstrate to be quite strong tool.

    I'm not a guru with this you might see better lineup positioning than that which I did. I'm fairly close.

    My 2 pennies.

  4. #84
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    quote I will provide a few unsolicited remarks. I agree that we shouldn't ever try to catch a falling knife. Occasionally we think we're a genius and'll get it right place on, but in fact, the knife keeps falling farther than we could remain liquid in more cases than not, so the odds of an ideal catch are small. As you discovered, the tendency for daily traders is obviously down. This is confirmed by the H4 as well as per week. The H1 indicates no signs of a trend shift. It appears like the daily bottom around 127 was a bounce off a previous support, which...
    you are completely correct guy. . .this the first month of trading that I am actually following my principles like ten years of continuous staring and trading the market and interestingly this is the first month am having a break of trading. . I have bragged through the years and lied to myself over the years but I think being brutally honest with oneself help. . I make some silly mistakes here and there but am sure it will get better now that I understand the importance of following strict principles as a trend following trader... please will appreciate some more brutal honesty concerning declines... my expansion have been quite gradual through the years and maybe its bcos am a really slow learner.

  5. #85
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    quote that you are absolutely right guy. . .this the very first month of trading which I'm really following my rules 200% after like ten years of continuous trading and staring the market and interestingly this is the very first month ever am having a break of trading. . I think being brutally honest with oneself assist although I've bragged over the last few years and lied to myself. . I nevertheless make some silly mistakes here and there but am sure it'll get better now that I understand the importance of following strict rules as a trend following trader....
    Wow, that's really great to hear Beejay. I can tell you're having the relief of trading to make, to follow your own rules. Following that, every choice has been made my your system. It took me a very long time to come up with a set of rules. There was a lot of diversion and misinformation along the way and that slowed my progress. In the end, I decided to reevaluate my trading to reevaluate my principle set. I have one entry criteria and I accept that it's not ideal, but nothing is. I enter every transaction that satisfies that criteria on the 28 pairs I track. So entrances. There are just two reasons to depart, to take profits and also to stop the bleeding of a loss. I set a tough emergency stop approximately 1 X ADR corrected for lines entry as one exit principle. Losing trades should be excised as soon as possible such as a cancer. I'll cut them short at roughly. Shorter is better. Always. They save me plenty of grief whilst trading, although All these are rules by design.

    There was a time when I could not sleep during the night for fear of dropping my trading. I sleep like an innocent kid. I do not care if a trade exits at a loss while I sleep. It. That is built into my machine. But that does not mean I take losing lightly. I work all the time not to prevent all losses, that's impossible, but rather to reduce their average size relative to my own typical wins. It is a relative matter. It does not matter take, as long as my win is 3 times my loss. I've got two options, either reduce the size of my losses or to increase the dimensions of my wins if it's not. Either functions. Lowering the quantity of losses is always a great idea since it's always the large losses which will take you out of the game. At one stage, I considered all of my previous trading profits and losses and I understood that when I simply removed all the large losses, I would be trading like a rock star. That's what I did. I chose to depart any trade no matter what before the loss became large (the easy part) and I chose to follow my rules no matter what (the tricky part). It had been very simple, although it was not simple. Losses are a choice. How can I've been led to opt to keep taking losses for so many years? If the burden of the entire world was lifted off my shoulders, it was. I hope everyone gets to experience of leaving behind their fears from your rear view mirror this pleasure. It is a relief. Finest achievement to all. - G

  6. #86
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    quote...I hope everybody reading this thread gets to experience that pure joy of leaving their fears behind from your rear view mirror. It's a relief. Very best success to all. - G
    Well said Graviton. Everyone needs a goodnight sleep.

    I'm speaking in generalities and when I say'trust' it is below the premise that the PA will do exactly what its going to perform. It's like everybody here; you hope you win at each and every place you create but you know you are only making guesses that are seasoned and educated. You win and sometimes you don't. I like everything you said G about reducing your losses. That is an amazing learning eureka moment. Out everything turns about and it did for me personally.

    I still say'trust' in my articles --in my last one I think I put in parenthesis'foolish' but apparently nobody got this --so don't take it literally.

    Joyful pipping

  7. #87
    1 thing that has helped me my winners brief and is to cut on my winners. Trends occur rarely, perhaps 15-20% of those moves are moves. I can assure you I'm always out of them. I am content with trying to ride the regular moves that are small, I was able to wait for days for the big trend trades, it just wears you down. Be greedy, be fearful too.cheers

  8. #88
    I hope everybody gets to try Trade Explorer from ForexFactory. It is one of the greatest programs out there and if you have more than one account you are able to see both on the exact same page. My broker only permits me to see one account at a time. In addition, it is great to see how others are doing and you can set it as personal as you want. Another attribute is how they're getting there and they have a leader poll so you can see who's doing what. You can also filter out demo accounts and see accounts. Demo accounts are okay for studying purposes and testing but they can be harmful in that you take more risks than a account. Additionally, it keeps your braggadocious manners. One week you're patting yourself on the back and the next, you're asking you are mommy where is your blanket...

    I use it and reveal everything but you can be as personal as you want to be and still show how you're performing in charts, proportions and pip counts. Like I do, You can also display it. At this time I'm up 31.7% but the month is drawing nigh. You will see me to be sure but in the end of the month my goal is to maintain the green.

    Getting ready to do some buys onto a double bottom with GU.

    Joyful pipping.

  9. #89
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    One thing that's helped me is to always cut my winners and my winners short. Trends occur rarely, maybe 15-20% of those moves are moves. I can assure you I'm always out of these. I am content with trying to ride the tiny moves, I used to wait for days for the trend trades, it wears you down. Be greedy, be fearful too.cheers
    Hi Renn. We have talked a bit about closing losing trades (just do it) , but since you brought it up, I'd like to dig into closing winning trades a bit more.

    Nominally, if one wins 50 percent of the trades they could make a profit for an average profit of anything more than a 1 to 1 benefit to risk ratio. In fact, allowing for mistakes and spreads, a smart trader winning 50 percent of the trades may take a benefit to risk ratio of 1.5 or 2 for 1 to assure profit. As to the way to get there, the answer is always exactly the same. In case the reward to risk ratio is not high enough to create long-term profit to the demonstrated winning percentage, then either the trader should risk less per trade or allow the trades to run longer to generate more profit and enhance the benefit to risk ratio. Implementing a hard limit to get rid of losses from trading outcomes is always the best place to start. Following that, small improvements which will allow risk to be reduced with amounts that are modest or let wins to conduct bigger and a little longer or is required.

    Either decreasing average risk or increasing average gain per trade will increase the benefit to risk ratio. But if that higher benefit to risk ratio (r/r) comes at the expense of a lower winning percentage, then the increase in the r/r ratio must be higher than the decrease in the winning percentage to make it worthwhile. Therefore, if the trader in the example enhances their r/r ratio but it reduces their percentage then they must generate a reward to risk ratio of better than 2 to 1 to be profitable. The trader here could shoot to 1 or 2 for a r/r ratio of 3 to assure profits following the cost of spreads and mistakes.

    My view is it's best to decide on what system you would like to exchange first. It should be something that's authoritative and deterministic. We would not need to use tea leaves or animal entrails. There should be no room for misinterpretation in the machine. The more complex a system is, the greater room for error in it, so it should be simple to understand. It should be totally ineffective and the trader should understand it and be confident inside. It's simple to see what your winning percentage is once you are comfy trading it. Calculating the ratio to be profitable long term is a simple matter. Eliminating losses that are massive and then making small losses a little smaller and earning wins on average is your path to achievement.

    I understand a few very profitable traders who have gone through this process. Their winning percentages because of their systems differ to 40%'s intense high in the low of 15%, yet all have been very profitable over an extended period of time. I don't personally know of any whose winning percentage is higher than 50 percent, but I guess those are more uncommon. The average winning percentage for the profitable traders I understand is about 34%, so most are aiming to 1 or better. I'm not saying that's the number. That is based on the individual and the system they've adopted. I'm just saying, a trader should leave a system because it only wins 35 percent of the time. It could possibly be effective at winning 35 percent of the time or better, potentially making them wealthy.

    So that's my view on getting profits. To stay in this game long term, we must take profits outside to cover all our losses and costs. Anything beyond that is a gift we'll thankfully and humbly accept. Other remarks, any remarks? - G

  10. #90
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    .. .Getting ready to do a few buys onto a double bottom with GU. Joyful pipping.
    Best success on the GU brief. The pattern is pretty clear for the last couple weeks. A day to get two or a day along with a tiny retracement the day another big day or two down. I'm waiting for my signal and it is getting very near. Before jumping in, I'd like to see a close below the old Aug 15th underside, when it comes through, but I'll take the signal. - G

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
This website uses cookies
We use cookies to store session information to facilitate remembering your login information, to allow you to save website preferences, to personalise content and ads, to provide social media features and to analyse our traffic. We also share information about your use of our site with our social media, advertising and analytics partners more information