Thread: Trend Trading

Originally Posted by ;

quote I completely disagree. Return to my post and the comments about the same of Graviton. When a fad will sort, you will never know, nor how long it will last. As long as you've got a trade signal to enter a trade, then: A) if it's trending and it's in exactly the same way, simply go with the flow. B) if it's already trending and it's in the opposite direction, go with the flow (again), but perhaps be careful of this being a retrace (regardless how strong). C) if it's not trending, just how can you know this isn't the beginning of a fine, powerful fashion? This...

The S P has been in an uptrend like indefinitely. Buying everywhere will result in a profit in the long term. However, will result. The whole purpose of trading is buying in the low point in the trend and selling in the high point.That's the only real way to outperform the market. Trend following isn't a secret, many investors are trend followers by definition. Are able to pick tops and bottoms always or input in the trend in a low risk point. A good case in point, buying the SP500 in its summit (in 2007) will have resulted in a more than 100% profit by today, but remember it took more than 7years simply to recuperate from the 56% market decline, not even to discuss the emotion. To outperform other shareholders you must be able to time the swings. In other words it's not good enough to be appropriate, one has to be right at the ideal time.

Originally Posted by ;

Plus I don't think you can be constant by being in every fashion.

I'm not sure what you mean? The market is uncertain. I try to be as constant as you can. It is hard when I endure a drawdown but it's the price of success. Prove me a trader that has large profits with no major drawdowns and I will show you somebody who is cheating like Bernie Madeoff or an inside trader. - G

Originally Posted by ;

quote Perhaps some people are able to see a trend before it's well developed, but I can't. I see trends in hindsight. Looking at weekly charts we see past trends. It doesn't matter when I enter that, so long as it isn't in those fourteen days if a trend lasts 6 months and my system is designed to ride it for fourteen days. I have no magic method to get in on the bar of a new trend. I don't believe such a magic exists. My trading doesn't require that type of precognition. I simply enter when the 50 period MA crosses the 200 on timeframes of interest. It's one of the entrance approaches I know of. They would probably only confuse me, although others might be better. Finest success. - G

I see trend following as relative to buying an index fund. Great advice but to a guy like me, that doesn't have a lot of cash, not practical. To become rich I have to do better than average. On earth, best advice to an older individual.

Originally Posted by ;

quote I am not sure what you mean? The market is uncertain. I try to be as consistent as possible. It is hard when I suffer a drawdown but it's the price of success. Prove me a trader who has consistent profits with no major drawdowns and I will show you someone who is cheating like Bernie Madeoff or a inside trader. - G

OR Stanley drunckenmiller, marty Schwartz ,mark weistein etc..

On March 10th 2009 Mark Haynes (RIP) called the base of the stock market crash to the afternoon live on CNBC. This was the most amazing thing I've ever witnessed in investing. I can not even begin to describe it. I wish I had the abilities, but regrettably I do not. As noted earlier there are just two methods of investing that have been demonstrated to produce massive profits, worth investing, i.e. Warren Buffett, and trend following, i.e. Dunn Capital and many others. I suppose there might be a savant out there with a few super abilities. May God bless them and keep them safe. I'm none of these individuals, so I have no choice but to grind out profits the way. - G

My take on this subject is because market have cycles, that trends do exist for certain. We have booms and busts and those market cycles will cause trends to happen and this provides traders a fantastic chance to profit from these moves and there is cycles on large picture and little image, the 10 year cycle would be the most significant and daily news would be the smallest cycle since traders reposition their traders based on what fundamental results we're expecting in the long run. This is complicated for ordinary retail trader to comprehend of the fundamentals but we're blessed because we've charting and price action we didn't had 30 years ago. This provides tremendous chance for retail traders since price is always up to date and price action depart all of the footprints where was the imbalance between buyers and sellers, by using this information we can make future predictions, for example if buyers consider market higher and later we return to see the identical price point, the chance is higher that there will be more buyers now again IF the buyers were successful using the last swing significance that they made money.

Originally Posted by ;

quote I see trend following as relative to buying an index fund. Great information but to a guy like me, that does not have a lot of cash. To become wealthy I need to do better than ordinary. To an older person, best information in the world.

A trend is just trading in a bar of a greater TF. Short trades on greater TF's are based on tendencies on reduced TF's.

We're all trend traders to a level, as a trend is a consistent (or semi-consistent) movement in an overall direction, consequently profiting from a movement that'can possibly be' in a direction that suits our commerce prejudice (buy or sell).

Originally Posted by ;

On March 10th 2009 Mark Haynes (RIP) called the bottom of the stock market crash to the afternoon reside on CNBC. It was the most amazing thing I've ever witnessed in investing. I can't even begin to describe it. I wish I had the abilities, but regrettably I do not. As mentioned earlier there's just two ways of investment which have been demonstrated to produce large profits, worth investing, i.e. Warren Buffett, and trend following, i.e. Dunn Capital and several others. I guess there may be a savant out there with a few abilities. May God bless them and keep them...

--On March 10th 2009 Mark Haynes (RIP)--Rip mark where you are. It's part of the process, you will be wrong a lot. I enjoy sending it recovers thou in the cleaning.

Originally Posted by ;

quote Hi G. I wonder if there's a method to systematically set about working with ADR/ATR to maximize SL placement with respect to staying with the Trend. I suspect not since while it may be heresy, I believe that the Market character is currently shifting into being more inconsistent and erratically inconsistent at that. Could be a phase or could be other hands at work. Possibly trial and error is the quickest, easiest approach...

Yes AG, that is just what I Have been considering. Normally the reason I have kicked from a trend that is good I would like to have stayed in isn't a real reversal, it's price volatility. When I enter a trade, I allow for price volatility by simply placing the stop near it's ADR, but as the trade progresses I tighten the halt to reduce the risk in the commerce or lock in profits, irrespective of volatility. I had been thinking that when volatility, as measured by the H1 ATR, state, is decreasing in the pair the stop quicker could tighten to reduce risk and lock in profits. But if volatility is increasing, I may need to proceed slower to tighten the stop to increase the odds of staying in the trade more. This is just something I am thinking about. I haven't decided to execute it yet. - G

Originally Posted by ;

quote I totally disagree. Go back to the comments in regards to the same of Graviton and my article. You never know when a trend will sort, nor how long it will last. Provided that you've got a trade signal to get into a trade, then: A) if it's trending and it's in the exact same direction, simply go with the flow. B) if it's already trending and it's in the opposite direction, proceed with the flow (again), but maybe be wary of this being a retrace (regardless how strong). C) if it's not trending, how do you know this is not the start of a fine, strong trend? This...

Yeah you're correct on that. In a bull market no price to too large and in a bear market no price is too low. But u can improve whether you cant just jump onto the band wagon or on entry.