Thread: Trend Trading

Graviton you sure have a lot of experience in the market. I also feel the market is a random walk with a prejudice, there's a gap between saying now the prejudice is bullish and the market will go up. One is fact and the other is the opinion.


Second, my experience is that simply knowing that there's a prejudice isn't enough. One must receive his exits. I think it boils down even when you're given the ideal exits it is still possible to screw it up if you trade with dread. Fear audiences your judgment. I understand a trader that built a strategy, did well in demo but after he started trading reside he blew his account.


The Principal ability in trading is that: TRADING WITHOUT FEAR. This is the ability. Everything becomes clear. Cheers luck to all. Don't be scared but also don't be greedy. I think I didn't struggle with all the fear aspect of trading because I did with the greed aspect. I was toooooooooo greedy and it undid me many many times.

Originally Posted by ;

quote Yes, I see your point and in my view the distinction is very subtle, but maybe important from many facets. One is folks. That causes them to remain with an terrible trade to avoid being incorrect. If we believe that price motion is simply random, perhaps with a prejudice or trend imposed we aren't incorrect to lose a trade, so long as we followed our trading strategy. One could say that is only a difference, but a few would state psychology is more of good trading. If that's the...

mostly agree with all you have said here and before throughout the thread. I'm subscribed and follow interesting articles punctually.
Consider matters I am saying just a comment or my personal thoughts, not willing to argue here about anything.
Differences between imagining the right direction of a trend and predicting a particular future price movement is actually the exact same thing. If I'm a sort of person with enormous ego, I'll take seriously absolutely all connected with me: my actions, words, thoughts, predictions, guesses etc.. That huge ego of mine would be the one that makes me sentimentally and psychologically bound to everything. So, it is not only about choosing on the words, it's around the personality.
A lot of people utilize the mentioned words mixed and they don't have too much sense of it. Forecasting the lottery numbers or even imagining them carry virtually the some meaning to too many folks. As I stated there are differences from linguistic point of view however concentrating whole attention on this is actually waste of time in word that is practical.
Stating that my figure is price will go up is nothing different than saying my forecast is price will go up or I anticipate price will go up.
Another comment is that using the illustration of coin dice or pitching isn't actually relevant to trading. They are animals and utilizing example will result in incorrect results.

Thanks for the Responses. Of course, consider all this food for thought. I'm always willing to look at things. Sometimes that's difficult to do without others input, so thanks again. Best success. - G

An interesting conversation going on here. I hope you do not mind me chipping in by a different trading strategy. It's always better to get a standpoint that is different. Here is a chart of the eurusd having an indicator in the bottom and each dot represents a news release. The black lines show the precise time of this discharge and at which it satisfies price, shows the market reacted to that news. Most of these are economic releases together with the remainder being central bank communication. What it does not show are unscheduled news that would fill in another moves.

To me none of it is random during these events and up before a new event happens or curiosity is lost, or diverted.

Originally Posted by ;

An interesting conversation happening here. I hope you do not mind me chipping in from a different trading strategy. It's always better to get a perspective that is different. Here's a chart of the eurusd having an indicator in the bottom and each dot represents a news release. The black lines show the exact time of the release and where it satisfies price, shows precisely the way the market responded to that news. Most of them are economic releases together with the rest being central bank communication. What it doesn't reveal are unscheduled news which would fill...

rightly noted. Yes, the markets are arbitrary but there's also a predictable factor to them. You will find instances price movement could be guessed with probability that is high under conditions that are specific and there are explanations that are valid. Those minutes can be manipulated by traders. I want that graph of yours may be enlarged for better view.

Originally Posted by ;

quote logically noted. Yes, the markets are arbitrary but a predictable aspect is also to them. There are instances price movement could be guessed with probability that is higher under circumstances that are specific and there are explanations that are quite valid. Those moments can be manipulated by traders. I wish that graph of yours can be enlarged for better view.

You can see it yourself visit tradingview.com. Under configurations of innovative chart is a check box to expand economic releases

I met with this man on FF years back who goes by name of dove_alliance. He was a teacher at the Forex market and he invited me to train in his courses. And that I think his strategy was called The Paradox or something like this. It was much too complex for me he had an insight to observe how the currency market worked.

Most likely among the most significant things that I got from his courses has been that the Currency Market currency market is always looking for balance. He designed many indicators and one has been called the ROMAR. It somewhat matched the 200 SMA, Though it had modifiers. And what it did was to determine the equilibrium of this currency pair. So what seems to be apparently arbitrary market action, is a striving for equilibrium, in reality.

Another matter of value I heard from him was that it is the central banks concerning the markets of nation states that transfers the currency market and retail traders#8212;us#8212;simply go along for the ride. We influence nothing. And that is a good thing.

As you understand tendencies can be up, down or flat based on the timeframe of this chart. I utilize indicators only to refine my guess in picking when to enter and exit the market.

Some here utilize a specific place and hope they win big or lose small. It#8217;s a fantastic strategy. I use a scattergun approach by placing out many places there at once. And , like everyone else, lose small and I attempt to win big.

Time and experience will best your strategy and no 1 strategy is far better than another.

I utilize the Trader Explorer to keep me honest. It#8217;s a feel great once you are in the green and slightly humiliating once you are in the red. I've a nothing account that I have blown times. All accounts under 10k I call baby accounts. I have traded, I just got past 10k once.

Experiments are over. Is refine. Good luck whatsoever.

Though the market might have a degree of uncertainty in it, I'm thinking we need a very definitive and deterministic trading strategy to profit consistently. Hence that the answer backtested beforehand and to any situation could be planned out. Some of those backtest effects will turn out to be precisely the opposite of what common sense might signify.

Also, I concur that fundamental factors like Fed announcements affect the markets. I have not seen any proof though that anyone can trade that information to get a profit. There are several issues in attempting to trade on that information. Sometimes we don't know beforehand which way that data will collapse, like better employment numbers or employment numbers. Frequently, the market will respond in the direction we believe it needs to. I see that a lot in stocks was expected, and the price goes on increasing earnings. There are also unexpected pieces of news that can't be predicted beforehand. Given all these factors and more, I see no reliable chance to predict future price movements based on fundamental details. If anyone has evidence that any method can predict certain future price movements, I'd like to view it.

I believe we could make up a narrative to go along with almost any price move after the fact. I visit commentators do that on CNBC every day. If price goes they state buyers were disappointed with all the news. When price goes up, they state buyers were happy the news was worse than it was. They often state, people were taking profits now and that drove the market down. What a crock. In reality, I don't find any evidence that these experts are any better than a 50/50 coin flip in their market forecasts. I think that we would like to find that holy grail of precognition so badly, we'll happily catch onto the 50% or so of correct forecasts as proof and happily ignore the 50% or so of incorrect predictions and use the results to warrant our furry system.

I have proof that the market is a random walk with a little prejudice. The bias may come from Fed coverage or a booming economy or whatever. I find no reason we can not find a way to profit off fashion, or the prejudice. I find no way to profit movements off. Of course, I may have missed something. - G

There are not any issues trading fundamental info. The matter is a lack of understanding on the traders role as to the circumstance of this news, the current belief, and its particular significance with central bank policy. When I told you that I derive every transaction I make off fundamental factors without so much as looking at a chart and keep an 80% hit rate, would that perk your own interest?

To possibly clarify this differently, trading technically involves probability whereas trading news releases doesn't. This might seem incompatible but look at it like this. A bit of news may change expectations and results in the factoring-in of the new information through price change. Should you do the homework required to comprehend the context then it's instantly apparent when there's an opportunity and unlike odds, you can get in on this price change without bothering with odds.

This strategy has 2 types of opportunity. The first is short term trading where a transaction may last a few minutes or span across multiple sessions on the same trading day. Another is swing trading. The later in my opinion lends since you can get in long before traders are aware of an opportunity.

An example

Eurusd, in the base of the chart is scheduled news releases including central bank communication. I must point out this news isn't represented. I note these down and will find the time in the near future. The lines represent the precise period of those releases and reveals the intersection with price.

Not all news events are equal but its pretty easy to identify the vital areas during research. Notice the regularity of market transferring information. It All very predictably but it requires research to identify direction and also optimum pairing of strongest against weakest for effect.

That is probably too complex for me personally, but if you've got it, go for it! 1 issue I have with my trading is that I need to have choices made by my system so that I can remove judgement until I do it. The rules become intricate, although I suppose one could decide ahead of time if unemployment is the USD will be traded by them down and visa versa. Just like what if it was expected or what should we anticipate price to go up it goes down and if an up number is declared? Can we buy it anyway? In the end, I end up making a lot of gut feel calls and lots of them will probably be wrong and that destroys itself confidence. For me at least, it's better that a system isn't right, since I improve a system and will make changes that are wise. If my personal about the fly judgement isn't right, I will have a lot of trouble. Best success. - G