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Thread: Trend Trading

  1. #181
    It would seem we come at trading from two different perspectives G.You listen to losses whereas not letting winners run as much as possible or getting removed by some swing ahead of the huge move is the thing that keeps me up at night.
    My quits are easy and very low risk. I put in my stops every trade and they stay in until either stopped out or anything trailing method I am using takes over. Simple.Robust.Mechanical.Nothing to consider or tinker with.End of narrative.

    BTW G my winners come from outliers so I don't aim for 10:1 or 15:1. My trades have ended profit potential. . .in theory.I don't endure for years. Months are provided that I'm eager to hold profitable trades.

    Great trading.

  2. #182
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    It would appear we come at trading from two different perspectives G.You listen to losses whereas maybe not letting winners run so much as potential or getting removed by some swing before the huge move is what keeps me up at night. My stops are easy and low risk. I put every transaction and they stay in whatever monitoring takes over or until either stopped out. Simple.Robust.Mechanical.Nothing to consider or tinker with.End of narrative. So I don't aim for 10:1 or 15:1 BTW G my winners come from outliers. My trades...
    Hi Nivad. Thank you for your answer. That's very intriguing. How long have you been trading? Many decades unless you're some type of savant, I'm guessing. Your benefit to risk ratio has to be quite high. It sounds like you have very strict control over your losses so congrats on that! They can read my 5 part series and see whether they get some ideas if someone has not attracted their losses under control yet. If not, they ought to go research what others have to say and practice cutting losses short at a minimum position size of 0.01 lot per transaction some more. The emotional inability is your problem. There are a lot of good books on the subject and lots of excellent information on the internet for newer traders. Caution can always be reduced without damaging profits, even for seasoned traders, but at a certain stage it might not be worth the bother. OK, losses are not quite as much fun to talk about as wins, for certain. Sorry if I bored everybody here to tears worry about reducing for days. Not to worry. I have said my piece. However, if anybody has a difficulty cutting their losses, I'm your go-to guy. You would probably be interested in hearing what is happening in my Forex area on Skype. We've got a mix of traders there. I'll take you a link. I'm certain you're busy, however as you've got time, please don't hesitate to stop in and contribute to help new traders . Some are just like we had been a bit. We do need someone to take the side of our trades. Best success to you! - G

  3. #183
    I have been trading for about 8 years now.The first 5 were a waste trading pinbars and'price action'.Then I discovered that in order to trade successfully I had robust,objective,mechanical systems with no curve fitting that would work in the future.Then backtest,backtest,backtest.

    This might appear strange but I try as far as possible to not hang about trading forums/chatrooms etc.There's nothing positive for my trading from hanging around places like that.In fact it might only hurt my trading.I understand what I have to do and I do it no matter the opinion of anybody.I do undergo exactly the same issues as any other trader but the distinction is that my backtesting allows me to understand that if I keep putting my transactions I will come out profitable.If I understand I am doing the proper thing I truly don't take care of my ceases being hit over and over and I don't fiddle with my stops.I understand that 5% of my transactions will probably be outliers and will make up for all of the losses.
    Sorry for rambling.
    Good trading.

  4. #184
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    I've been trading for about 8 years now.The first 5 were a waste trading pinbars and'price action'.Then I found that in order to trade successfully I needed robust,objective,mechanical systems with no curve fitting that could work into the future.Then backtest,backtest,backtest. This might appear odd but I try as much as possible not to hang about trading forums/chatrooms etc.There's nothing favorable for my own trading from hanging around places like that.In fact it might only hurt my trading.I understand what I must do and I do it regardless of this...
    That is great Nivad. As I told a newer trader the day, as long as you're alive, you haven't failed until you quit. No difficulty rambling. Here is the place to do this. I am sure there are traders out there which have a burning question they'd just like to ask a professional. So the thread'll start up to them. Come traders, here is your opportunity! Thank you for the reply. - G

  5. #185
    While awaiting the shy but curious to ask Nivad a question they've been dying to ask a pro trader, I will ramble a little. When I left my series on Losing Well, we'd managed to put in a trade without (much) loss. Of course, we'll get rid of a few pips and there trying to get into a trade, but they should be few. Since everyone was tired of speaking about not dropping, I promised to talk about winning second, so here it is. The best way to win is to not lose. Beyond this, winning is enjoyable and simple. The market does all of the job. Let us look at the Hour winning live chart of NJ long below.

    I have just completed the entry stage discussed in Losing Well (with hardly any pips lost) and we're near 1 ADR ahead. I moved the stop up to about half it's original value (1.5 ADR) since this is currently the very risk I ever intend to take on this trade no matter what occurs. Even if all of the sheep in New Zealand are abducted by aliens (cause who does not enjoy a good lamb shank) or Exxon finds massive oil deposits beneath Japan, or both. This stop is the maximum risk I could take on this trade what. My stop is only 10 pips below entry. I truly don't believe I should have to risk more than 10 pips from here on out to do everything I want to do with this trade. So price will either go up or down. I can predict that outcome that is arbitrary than I can the next number on the roulette wheel. If it goes up, I will make my second adjustment at approximately 1.5 ADR or near 100 pips in profit. If it goes , I may lose 10 pips. That is a 10 to 1 r:r and I will take those all day . The next step at 1.5 ADR has become the most difficult yet. I will want to add to this trade without requiring any risk to my account. I will post it in case it is made by it. I will post another that did if it does not. There's always another trade. Happy trading. - G


  6. #186
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    I've been trading for around 8 years now.The first 5 were a waste trading pinbars and'price action'.Then I discovered that in order to trade successfully I had powerful,objective,mechanical systems with no curve fitting which would work in the future.Then backtest,backtest,backtest. This may seem odd but I try as much as possible to not hang around trading forums/chatrooms etc.There's nothing favorable for my trading from hanging around areas like that.In fact it might just hurt my trading.I know what I must do and that I do it regardless of this...
    Hi,Nivad
    When all, I chose to give up the rest of the pairs and adhere to just 1 pair,its working fantastic for me because if there is not any trade I remain out.Plus my equity is the factor which im working .

  7. #187
    So I was reading a Dialogue by Mark Minervini of Market Wizards fame. He maintained in his long career he has met with 3 kinds of traders, first those with no rules trading on gut sense. He said that almost without exception, those with no rules blow up fast and safely attribute the market. People who don't follow their rules blame themselves and blow up. People who have rules and follow them wind up being traders. Typically until they succeed their principle set begins overly optimistic or competitive or lacking crucial components and improves over time.

    Throughout the course of trading, there should be a rule for every possible scenario that presents itself. This is the heart of a trading plan. Right after entry, price either goes down or up. What is the principle either way? During transaction management price retraces to entry point, what's the principle for it? Trying to decide sets a trader in the category. Changing them on the fly although having rules places traders in the next category. Working when not in a commerce to enhance rules and following them in a transaction with precision once places the trader in the third category.

    I'm frequently asked by experienced traders, what's your border? The question shows a profound understanding of market structure. Here is my advantage. The combination of fashion trading and exact implementation. I do love to discuss trading trends. So far as trend trading, well there's a ton of information about it but it's simple as a farm boy. If price was moving up we buy, if it's been going down, we market. It will turn against us as we enter. We've already decided how much we are prepared to risk on the transaction and if it turns against us than that pre determined amount, we take the (very small!) Loss and proceed. If it keeps moving in the direction we entered, our goal is to ride that trade to a golden retirement. That's always our goal. We know the odds say there will be a regression to imply or counter trend retracement or whatever some day which will take all our winnings back should we let it, so we don't let it. It's just a decision. Do we allow a massive reduction or do we choose to not allow it. Most people like to think the market was mean to them and took back their giant profits. That way they could believe that they were not erroneous. Humans hate to be incorrect.

    In fact, they were not erroneous. They were not wrong in their forecast when the price would go down or up. They were wrong in trying to predict the results of a event in the first place.

    The way I look at the markets, all of them, is like the casinos look at a roulette wheel. The casino can't predict the next number. They don't attempt to and they don't need to. They understand they have a built in border which will give them winners 5.26percent more frequently than losers, provided that they endure enough spins to accumulate this advantage. And since they are currently playing chips that are plastic that are small, they could endure basically forever. Believe me, they have crates of those tiny chips in a vault. Lots more chips are in their vault than the entire casino and resort is worth. They must endure to accumulate their advantage, and they will. Another thing that the casinos do is limit their losses. They do this with a table limit. I use a stop and position sizing. Same thing actually. I'm the casino, and the market is my roulette table. I take all bets that I receive a signal on, limit my losses, restrain my position size to make sure I live and collect my advantage. I'm never incorrect, the ball simply fell in the men favor this moment. More frequently than not, it is going to fall in mine. Edge and rules to realize that border. A few things that are important to take into account. Finest success. - G

  8. #188
    I was asked a question here by Taigen and I wanted to reply it. He asked something like, how do we place a trade on without trying to predict the management of price. Is placing the trade on in 1 direction predicting price will proceed in that direction? Excellent question.

    Let me attempt to answer that question with an example that I've given before. Suppose we have so that it turns up heads 60 percent of their time when it is flipped. We can't predict the results of the next reverse with no certainty, but we do not have to in order to make a bet. We'll bet regardless of what the results that are previous were, heads every time. An individual can say we are predicting that the coin will come up heads than tails over many trials, but we are not specifically trying to predict the next coin flip. This is without even trying to predict the near future, which I maintain is impossible in a purely random event if the occasion has some kind of bias, such as the coin how we trade. The bias in the event is what professional traders call their edge.

    Every trade I've posted in this thread comes with an implicit assumption or guess about what the bias or trend in price is. There are a few possibilities relating to this suspect. One is that there is trend or not any bias. It's like flipping a reasonable 50/50 coin and getting heads three times. The result is likely to be heads than tails. I can't depend on that for an edge, although I will win some of those trades just out of pure luck. The probabilities say that after I deduct for disperse or commissions, I should eliminate money on these trades entire. I have guessed wrong and it's in the direction of my trade, although The other possibility is that there is trend or a bias. Probabilities say I should lose more of these trades than trading randomly. Finally, I may have guessed the tendency right, and I might win should I trade my edge or if I make an implementation error I could still lose it.

    So, I don't try to predict what price is going to do later on. I do my very best trade that trend that is potential with implementation and to decide which way it's going and whether there is a trend. That is my edge. At the trade's end, lose or win, I can never understand if my guess regarding tendency was correct or that outcome was just the result of good or bad luck. I can understand if I executed the trade according to my trading program, and that is the best I can do, so I do that.

    I hope that answers the query, but I'd be delighted to discuss it further if anybody desires. Best trading success to all. - G

  9. #189
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    I had been asked a fantastic question here by Taigen and that I wanted to reply it. He asked something like, how do we place a trade on short or long, without trying to forecast the future management of price. Is placing the trade on in one direction predicting price will go in this direction? Fantastic question. Let me try to answer that question with an example I've given. Suppose we have a coin that's weighted so it turns up heads 60% of their time when it is flipped. We can't predict the results of the next reverse with any certainty,...
    Great post but regardless of how many titles you may call a particular concept, this doesn't alter the meaning much. Predicting, guessing, expecting, forecasting all are about an event before it happens. Some negligible differences between the words but overall the same meaning. I do not think that is worth discussing.

  10. #190
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    quote Good post but regardless of how many titles you may call a particular idea, this doesn't alter the meaning considerably. Before it occurs, predicting, guessing, anticipating, forecasting are all simply saying/declaring about an event. Some slight differences involving the words but the exact same meaning that is complete. I do not believe that is worth discussing.
    Yes, I see your point and in my view the difference is quite subtle, but maybe important from many facets. One is folks hate to be incorrect. Occasionally that causes them to remain to avoid being incorrect. If we consider that price movement is purely random with a prejudice or trend imposed, then we aren't incorrect to lose a trade as we followed our trading plan precisely. An individual could say that's simply a gap, but a few would say psychology is half or more of good trading. It might be important to acquire the psychology correct if that's true.

    There are a number of other differences between guessing the appropriate direction of a trend and predicting a particular future price movement. If a trend is a prejudice superimposed atop an essentially random pair of price moves, which I've proof then time and effort spent to obtain the holy grail of price movement prediction is wasted effort. Statically the best we can do is win. I propose that's of probabilities most of us live in the world, if we understand it or not. Of course we'd prefer to believe classically and think in cause and effect relationships, and that's a shortcut for everyday life. Some would say we're hardwired to believe that, but evidence indicates it's not reality. I don't want go deeper into all the statistical things, but I believe it's worth considering whether price, anymore than a few minutes into the future, is modeled by statistical means than deterministic methods.

    Of course, that's just my own humble view. I could be incorrect. Best success in trading. Happy Thanksgiving for people from the U.S. - G

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