Thread: Trend Trading

Originally Posted by ;

quote, you are welcome to post .... My trading is to hold it get more in case it wins, and to cut it off quickly in case it loses. I can tell you need to do something much more complicated, but for me at least, more complicated doesn't mean profitable. I see you have lots of entrances. Let me ask, are you incorporating entries since you are wining more, or are you adding more entrances as price moves against you, basically averaging down? Also, I really don't see any stoploss marked on your chart. Are you trading with or without stoploss? - G

I typical against me so the cumulative average is, for a brief, being set higher. My stop loss is an alarm when an individual posture reach a specific loss level. I shut reposition it at a level that is higher. Since I do this you will observe that the places concentrate. I generally don't watch the computers so that I set my rankings. If is a spike at the middle of the night, it's great.

I don't stop loss until I'm firmly in the green and becomes a stop profit. If something goes whackadoo, I won't lose anything. I do it this way since I rarely could find the tops or bottoms. There's a point of vulnerability in this strategy therefore that I, like you stop loss my bad rankings. Since it can go I have to be careful.

Also I don't see the Stochastic 20% or 80 percent as oversold or overbought respectively. It's indicating a lot of occasions, only the opposite.

If it breaks the trendline (purple line), I have to rethink everything.

Originally Posted by ;

quote I typical against me so the cumulative average is, to get a short, being put higher. My stop loss is an alarm when an individual posture reach a specific loss level. I close then reposition it in a higher level. Since I do so you will observe that the places concentrate. I generally don't see the computers so that I put my rankings. When is a spike at the middle of the night it's great. I really don't stop loss until I am strongly in the green and becomes a cease profit. If something goes whackadoo, I will not get rid of anything. I really do it...

I edited my above post with a bit more detail.

I have a hard rule that I never average down. I cut losers short and add to trades.

Also, every trade I input has a stoploss, even though they are often broad and I try to never hit you, but emergencies occur and that I need it in case of a crisis. I mean, what could you do if you've got a lot of trades and price started to move rapidly from you? 100 pips, 200 pips, 400 pips, 800 pips, 1400 pips? That occurred to me Whenever the SNB lifited that the Chf peg into the Eur. The stoploss stored my account. Can you access in only a couple seconds to exit trades and your computer and wake up? Would you be wiped out? - G

Originally Posted by ;

quote I edited my above article with a bit more detail. I have a rule that I never average down. I cut losers short and add to winning transactions. Additionally has a stop loss, I try never to hit on one, but crises occur and I want it there in the event of an emergency and even though they are broad. I mean, what would you do if you have a lot of transactions and price started to move rapidly against you? 100 pips, 200 pips, 400 pips, 800 pips, 1400 pips? That occurred to me about the EurChf when the SNB lifted...

Most brokers, no matter the number of rankings, when you hit the 25% threshold, they shut everything. Forex.com (Gain Capitol) doesn't do that. They move by the FIFO ruling where 25% are hit by the initial position that position closes out. Of course that is an extreme stop reduction but it guarantees you'll at lose 25 percent and that's occurred to me. Not so much anymore due to my stop losses that are little kick .

My system isn't complicated in any respect. Instead of looking at a lot of positions, it is really only one. It's a approach in finding the direction of this market. At 1.3125 I am at break even, however, I do need to compose my stop losses. If it drops roughly ~100 pips in where I am at, I will have profited. I have learned to not count my chickens until they hatch.

Originally Posted by ;

quote I edited my above post with a bit more detail. I have a rule I never average down. I cut losers short and only add to winning trades. Additionally, every transaction I enter has a stoploss, I try never to hit on one, but crises occur and that I want it in the event of an emergency and even though they are wide. I mean, what could you do if you've got a lot of trades running and price started to move against you in just a couple of seconds? 100 pips, 200 pips, 400 pips, 800 pips, 1400 pips? That occurred to me about the EurChf whenever the SNB lifited...

Most brokers, no matter the number of rankings, when you hit the 25 percent threshhold, they close everything. Forex.com (Gain Capitol) doesn't do that. Where the place hits 25 % that place closes out they move by the FIFO ruling. Of course that is an stop reduction but it ensures you will at lose 25 percent and that has occurred to me. Not too much anymore because of my discontinue losses kick in.

My system is not complex at all. Instead it is really only one. To me, it's a approach in finding the direction of this market. At 1.3125 I am at break , however, I really do need to compose my stop losses. If it drops about ~100 pips from where I am at, I will have profited. I've learned not to count my chickens before they hatch.

Originally Posted by ;

quote Most brokers, regardless the number of positions, when you hit the 25% threshold, they close everything. Forex.com (Gain Capitol) doesn't do that. They go by the FIFO judgment where 25% are hit by the position that position closes out. Of course that's an extreme stop reduction but it guarantees you'll lose 25 percent and that has occurred to me. Not so much due to my stop losses that are small kick in. My system isn't complicated in any way. Instead it's actually only one averaged position. To me, it's a.. .

OK Taigen. I need to point out again that your trading process is different from mine. I don't want readers to be confused, although if it works for you that's just fine. My system is quite different in many aspects and your charts don't have anything to do with my method of trading trends. I trust you can understand that I'd like to assist in any way I can, but your charts are diverting from the purpose of the thread and perhaps it would be better if you do not place them here. You're welcome to post so long as it regards trend trading, but I don't want readers to be more confounded by charts which don't represent what I am proposing in this thread. That said, I'd like to refocus the thread back into the fundamentals of fad trading which I see as different from where your broker will execute a margin call depart. In fact, under my system, no margin calls occur, so it's totally different. Believe me, I've endured my struggles in the markets for many years and in fact, that is the purpose of the thread, to assist others who are currently unable to do everything right. I love that you are working really difficult to attempt and find a way to make profits in this market and that is extremely difficult. I'm just suggesting that there are lots of points being discussed here and at times it's more helpful to sit back and listen to traders with years of expertise instead of divert the dialogue. Best success in gambling. - G

Losing nicely. (Part 1) I've discussed this point before, but it's so important that it's worth repeating. Among those very traders in the Market Wizards books said that if you can learn how to decrease losers small and fast, you invincible. That's a powerful statement by someone who is capable to create it. In my humble opinion, learning to shed is more important than learning how to win. Everyone likes to talk about winning. Winning is fun and losing will be not as fun, at best. Losing is painful and it's usually locked away in some place that is dark out of sight and out of thoughts. Let us spend a bit of time bringing that uncomfortable subject of losing from this darkness and into the light where we can examine it.

I'll admit, I am almost obsessed with cutting losses short. I've stated elsewhere that I enter transactions. There's nothing magic about that amount. It just generally is enough to prevent me from being taken out by normal volatility and it is adjusted for the volatility in that particular pair. My goal is to not lose that 1 ADR. I suppose I have typical results at that for someone so obsessed with minimizing losses. My ordinary loss is about 0.3 ADR. Those losses occur from two distinct aspects of price action.

The primary supply of my losses are transactions that go bad fast. Right after entry, price can do one of two things, it goes up or down. If price goes up I hold the transaction to get a little for later consideration, therefore my system makes this choice. It turns out, winning isn't just entertaining, it's easy. That's probably another reason we like it more. Because I do not need to make a decision on a commerce that instantly goes into profit, I can't be wrong. The route is always chosen by my system, hold the first profitable commerce.

If price goes down instantly, the only discretionary element of my trading system comes in to play. I need to decide before I cut it short, just how far I'll let a run. Letting all the way runs isn't cutting losses short, and I don't want that to happen. The stop loss is there for emergency situations such as abrupt news or an outage. It's not to be utilized for letting losers run. I need to make the choice where to cut back the reduction short. It's my job. - G
(to be continued)

Originally Posted by ;

quote OK . I need to point out that your trading system is totally different from mine. If it works for you that's just fine, but I don't want readers to become confused. My system is quite different in many aspects and your charts have nothing to do with my system of trading trends. I hope you can understand that I'd love to help in any way I can, but your charts are diverting from the purpose of the thread and perhaps it would be better for those who don't post them here... Best achievement in trading. - G

So what I surmised was really accurate. What led me wrong was that you heard about the thread as Trend Trader that, in a way, suggested that entered was desired on the subject of trading. I realize this is a classroom in which you the teacher and those who come here are expected to function as pupils. I understand, since I taught math and computer science for decades. What is deceptive is the title. It needs to be something like trend trading techniques by Graviton.

What I really do is trading. Been doing it. Is it different then your strategy? Of course but it does not make it any less relevant.

I've been around FF going on nine Decades. I detect you don't possess a Trade Explorer. If you're likely to teach, you have to show your trades both bad and good. You could be bombing maybe not or every trade but who knows. You speak but you don't show. Your expertise proclaimed by you'd suggest that you're well into account. I've blown accounts but I am putting the last piece of the puzzle together, which is, prevent losses.

Who understands? This account might go by the wayside but at least I'm not advocating anything.

Good luck my friend.

Originally Posted by ;

Slimming well. (Component 1) I've discussed this point before, but it is so important that it is worth repeating. One of those super traders at the Market Wizards books stated that if you're able to learn to decrease losers little and fast, you are almost invincible. That is a statement by somebody who's capable to make it. In my opinion, learning how to shed properly is much more important than understanding how to triumph. Everyone likes to talk about winning. Winning is fun and shedding is less fun, at best. Losing is debilitating and it is generally locked away in some dark...

Graviton I fell prey to the statements and that I think lots of newbies after me will. All this statements apply once you've got an edge, which at a technical analysis perspective means a price pattern. Either way it is useless. Position manage it won't turn a losing strategy . Your system cans enhance by making your loses shorter now once you've got an edge or your winner's more.

Thus, only cutting your losses and allowing your winner's journey won't turn you into a profitable trader. So far as information that was random is being traded by you, your cause is lost even before it started. The blow-up is going to appear slow or quick.

Originally Posted by ;

quote I fell prey to the statements and that I think lots of newbies after me will. This statements only apply once you have an advantage, which at a technical analysis perspective means a non-random price pattern. In any event it's useless. Position manage it will not turn into a strategy into a winner. Your system cans improve by creating your loses shorter now once you have an advantage or your winner's more. Thus, just cutting your losses and allowing your winner's ride will not turn you into a profitable trader....

Hi Renn. Great point. Thank you for the comment that is relevant. I will do my very best to tackle your query. Please be patient as this is as straightforward as trading the tendencies. This goes straight back to the fundamental question of, do tendencies exist, and, if they do, how do we get in them and profit from them? Here we're assuming that tendencies exist, and that I think I given some research to back that assumption up. Moving on, we have to be aware of when and where do we enter tendencies to give an chance to profit from them. So it's basically a question about entrances.

A lot of new traders will concentrate their attention on a exotic indicator or system for entrances to attempt to obtain the advantage you speak of. They can become so obsessed with discovering that holy grail entrance indicator that they overlook the forest of great tendencies by focusing on the trees, or the leaves on the trees. I propose that finding a fad is easy. We just find a price moving up (or down) from left to right on say a 1 hour chart to see if it's trending, and we can examine the daily chart to see how long it was trending. Enter the transaction from the direction of trend was observed by that and that's your advantage. It will not always work. It will most likely fail. However, if profits are allowed to run and taken at a while, and losses are cut very short (no, shorter!) , then edge which is rather hidden by the result that someone may lose more transactions than they win, will pay off with a reward to risk ratio that overcomes the numerous losing transactions with some winners that are very large.

Perhaps we can agree that if you can spot trends fairly faithfully, then can be their advantage. So for instance, if price is trending up strongly, most (more than 50%) of long entries will be great entries with a border, if the trend continues long enough. If we can agree with this, then the question becomes, will this trend continue long enough for me to turn a profit out of it? Trends may last for hours, minutes, days, weeks, months or years. We would need to understand every bit of fundamental information in the world the moment it's released along with the psychology of each single trader in the world to predict how long a fad will survive. It's clear we can not predict before it does a trend will happen or how long it will continue once it's begun. We shouldn't squander our valuable lifespan hoping to predict the future.

We don't have many other choices. If we will attempt using trading trends as our advantage, then we must wait until after the trend grows to enter it. That almost always means we'll be a little late getting to the party. Of course, if it's a strong tendency that lasts for a time, that wont. Some will be tendencies and some will fail. The only question is, how long will this trend continue? Or phrased another way, will this trend last long enough for me to profit from it? In the end of the chain of reasoning, I can only reply, I don't understand.

Because of the arbitrary nature of the distribution of fashion lengths, I can not say how long any particular trend will survive. Further, due to the factors mentioned previously I feel it's impossible for anyone to predict the duration of a fashion that is specific. However, there's a way out of the logical impasse. Earlier I produced audited records from Dunn Capital that show they've been profitable using this method for decades. It's rather easy for someone to fake a trading record on the internet, and I guess many are falsified, but supplying a faked trading record is a crime, as Bernie Madoff may testify. There are legitimate audited records of fad traders accessible if a person wants to dig into this further. Maybe those guys were blessed, for over 40 years, or perhaps they found something that wasn't obvious. Perhaps Efficient Market Theory (EMT) does not account for hedgers and industrial trades and central bank activities that don't care about making a profit out of their trades and occasional irrational actions by big traders (Nick Leeson) that form persistent trends in the market. I can only presume this is true as I haven't found enough evidence to prove it logically or empirically. I don't have any explanation for how these very profitable trend traders possess overcome on the rest of us of over 40 years. I propose we run with it since that is the only rational explanation I have ever heard.

And there we have our advantage and the explanation (or at least one plausible explanation) behind it. Our advantage is to exchange a fashion, until it bends. Should you need a more authoritative, deterministic and repeatable procedure to trigger your entries as I do, there are numerous possibilities. I use the simplest and among the oldest in existence, the golden cross in timeframes of the Daily chart and below. Of course, the short timeframes like the 1M and 5M are of little use to me in finding a fashion, but I throw them just before entrance, simply to make sure everything is going my way once I get in. It's very deterministic and repeatable and I have found it generates about as great an entry into tendencies as anything else on the market. An added plus is it's easy so there is no space for me to make a mistake with it. That's alright if a person want's to use it. That's fine also if they believe they have an entry trigger that works better. I just picked this one off the shelf and I have been too busy counting up winnings since to examine others. I am able to say for sure though, the magic is until it bends in trading the trend, not at the entry cause.

Thank you for the Fantastic question. I'm sorry for the long answer, but your question was not and a great one as straightforward as it may seem. Fire off them In case you have any questions. This is great topical discussion for this thread. Best success. - G

Originally Posted by ;

quote Graviton I fell prey to the statements and I think lots of newbies after me will. All this statements apply when you've got an edge, which in a technical analysis perspective implies a price pattern. In any event it is useless. Position manage it won't turn into a losing strategy into a winner. By creating your loses shorter now as soon as you've got an edge, place management can enhance your system or your winner's more. So, only cutting your losses and allowing your winner's journey won't turn you into a profitable trader....

EDIT: One other point I'll mention is that analysis of trading has been done and found that the majority of trades are closed at a larger negative amount in contrast to the relatively lower sum (pips gained) of winning trades. If those winning trades had been left open more, they would have generated more profit and possibly offset some or most of those losses. Losers cut would also benefit.

Thus, it is possible to potentially turn into a'losing strategy' to a winning one. . .merely by cutting on those losses briefer and allowing those winning trades run. That is it.

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I'd say you're sort of missing the point of what's been discussed. Here are three examples (and apologies for over-simplifying these):

Graviton uses MA's for entrance (plus a controlled procedure of adding to the original trade and departing )
albinagrande uses a whole collection of indicators to come up with his ideas for entries (and exits).
I utilize Ichimoku for determining where to invest in and eventually exit the transaction.

However, the principal element of all of this is that the element of allowing trades run and stacking trades. That is what I see is the'core mentality' that brings us together to see that the similarities of what we're trying to attain (i.e., profits) and also the remainder of the things is only ways to consider improving the way you go about handling the various tasks, calculations and strategies.

Yes, Graviton is biased enough about his'system', largely because (as he's stated) it's only after decades of trial and error, and it is what he's learned/decided is what works. He's happy to talking Trend Trading in concept as long as they're willing to accept his bias, according to his experience of his system.

I have ZERO issues with how Graviton conveys his ideas or his theories/system/planning. What I know is that I'm free to disagree with anything that he says and do anything I want to improve my trading. Irrespective of my ideas, exactly what I do know is that the time I've spent talking trading in this thread (and preceding ones with Graviton and others) has made me far better at reviewing my own procedure and strengthening my work to come up with standard, well-defined principles to trade, remain in trades and handle the inevitable exits. Trend Trading is a great means to trade, but it might not be everyones style. A lot of what individuals are suggesting isn't very linked to trend trading/stacking. *

The remainder is simply fun to discuss and waffle on about, just as you would over a pint down at the pub.

Yes, I'll agree a lousy system is simply lousy, but why not figure out WHY it is? Perhaps adjusting it according to some of the ideas might help fix it? I'd say yes. Enough to make it profitable? Who knows.


Decision Taigen, I'd call your procedure weighted stack averaging, not trend trading. You don't actually trade the tendency, but set up trades based on your choice of eventual price movement offsetting your shedding trade setups. A lot of your trades reside at a loss, which demands an extremely large quantity of margin to handle the while, leaving you at a level of risk versus reward. You essentially dismiss a tendency in any way, but are planning to win/lose based on the market either moving against your stacked position, or moving your way. Big loss that is large or win.