Trend Trading - Page 13
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Thread: Trend Trading

  1. #121
    Right now I have bought GU on the downtrend and'm just beginning to get in the green. Nonetheless, it's Friday so I do not expect much. We'll see what's happening Monday I guess.


    Daily - downtrend
    4Hour - downtrend nevertheless the 200 SMA is beginning to flatline.

    I'm hoping (teehee) to get 127 but will probably have to unload ahead of time.

  2. #122
    Before I continue, I want to point out that this thread is focused on maximizing profit from trend trading. I understand other systems are traded by some folks and so the exit method for these might not be the exact same as I present . For example, I know we have counter tendency traders here that trade counter tendency on a breakout. Their best exit might be near a profit goal a little over the value required to create their method profitable. They may use an indicator alteration or the rest of a trend line to indicate that it's time to take profit. I don't wish to confuse someone who has developed a profitable system, or is in the process of developing a profitable system that's different from mine.

    Generally, there are two types of exits to take profits. One is to take continuous smaller profits when a predefined goal is reached, an indicator reverses, a trend line is broken, etc.,. That may be compared to hitting a lot of singles and doubles in baseball. Another method I use for trend trading is to stay in the trade through all the tiny retracements until the tendency is reversed as indicated by longer term price action. This might be contrasted to swinging to attempt to hit home runs. In the first method, a trader will require lots of little profits and smaller losses with the goal of making sure that the profits exceed the losses over a time period. The outcomes are more limited and predictable in that procedure. I will not be discussing that method here because I am not expert in it.

    The second method is where we swing with all our might every time we go to the plate trying to hit a house run. We don't know just how long the trend will last, but we would like to ride it throughout the tiny retracements to extract the profit we can out of a running trend. In that method, we'll take many tiny losses and fewer little wins because of our failed attempts to ride through little retracements that prove to be bigger than average, but we'll have a few very large wins that produce our profits for the week, monthly, as well as the whole calendar year. Other traders that look at our results in retrospect may think we're just lucky to be in such a good trend trade only at the time that price took off on a fantastic historical run, but those of us who have thought all this through carefully know that luck had little to do with it. This was a system that has been specifically designed strike 65 percent of their time out to do precisely what it did and hit a home run 35 percent of their time.

    It will take nerves of steel to weather the deep retracements on the way, however, the payoff in the end makes it worth all of the worry. There should be no worry, because the tiny losses and actually, once the approach is perfected, it mechanical and even some rather large give backs of pips out of retracements are planned from the start. Let not your heart be troubled. The machine is intended to be deterministic and repeatable so there will be no subjective conclusion calls to foul it up. I've cried myself to sleep bad judgment calls in the previous enough days to last several lifetimes (which I plan to live). We'll do everything possible to prevent that moving forward by making all our judgments in the design of the machine up front, not in the middle of a trade that has soared to the moon or that seems like going bad. When the system is properly designed, we will have one decision to make, that is to follow our system rules. After that the rules will make every decision that is potential. I encourage anyone who is worried, to relieve your concerns with back testing and forward testing in demo before moving to the next step of trading live in very small size like 0.01 lots per trade.

    So there's a more appropriate introduction to the following section that may be called Let your profits run. Where I jumped to the middle of the topic matter, please pardon my prior post. My excuse is that I was excited to get to the fun part of the dialogue. Would you feel the excitement of the experience that is forthcoming? Discussions, any questions, comments, complaints? - G

  3. #123
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Right now I've purchased GU about the downtrend and am just beginning to get from the green. Nonetheless, it's Friday so I don't expect much happening. We are going to see what's happening Monday I guess. Analysis: Daily - downtrend 4Hour - downtrend nevertheless the 200 SMA is starting to flatline. I am hoping (teehee) for 127 but will probably have to unload ahead of time. picture
    Hi Taigen. This looks like a good entry. Be patient. GU price has bounced off the bottom. When that keeps occurring it goes to the next level, which might be quite a win and finally punches. Of course, price follows a torturous path, because that what price likes to perform, torture us. This unsolicited opinion is worth exactly what you paid for it. Best success. - G

  4. #124
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    quote Yeah true, but when many every body is buying in the exact same stage you're buying what do you believe will occur? The market spikes, you become filled at a worse price and when everybody is completed buying goes right back down, clears all you men out to acquire liquidity and then resumes it is uptrend. Giving out your entry point generates sound around those points. I guess you do not have an audience large enough to generate that type of succeeding however risk it? You will never know how many people...
    Hi Renn, you said, I suppose you do not have an audience large enough to generate that kind of succeeding however, why risk it? You will never know how many people might actually follow your way or how popular or conventional it might become. Storms begin out of winds. I have given this a lot of thought and in reality, I am still thinking it over. I believe we are quite safe in our isolated little corner of the world here, so that I shall think about it but your observation is selfless and value thought. Thanks for your concern and trading success. - G

  5. #125
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    quote Hi Renn, you said, I suppose you do not have an audience big enough to generate that kind of succeeding but, why risk it? You never know how conventional or hot it may become or how many people might follow your method. Storms begin out of winds that are small. I have given this a lot of idea and in fact, I am still thinking over it. I believe we're all quite safe in our isolated corner of the world here, therefore that I will consider it carefully but your observation is real and worth consideration. Thanks for your concern and best...
    I am glad you see my purpose was not offensive.

  6. #126
    Sometimes I wait many hours to get a transaction to grow. I usually use the time to do research or have a nap. I like to draw pictures. This is just one of a live trade on Achf that is accelerating up at the moment denoted by the lines being reset to angles as time continues. A PSAR snapped on the chart simply to see how it would track the price and it's not too awful. My stops are in reality set on a pip trailing stop because I am too lazy to do more right now. None of it is employed in my trading, although it's not bad. I only like all the pretty colors. We have to be mindful, although it tells a story. This is a construction of our own production and one phrase out of a central bank leader could scramble this pretty image like a Buddhist monk scrambling sand art.

  7. #127
    It is not how many times you get knocked down that counts, it's how many times you return.

    Inserted Video

  8. #128
    Well, I have thought this through. I want to present this final piece that could be called Let your profits run as clearly as I can. I really don't know how a lot of people will read it or give it a try or stick with it for many years just like I did to make it work, but if it helps one person to avoid going through the pure hell that I did to get here then it is well worth it. We go with this adventure together.

    The first step to letting your profits run would be to comprehend when you are in a good fashion. I'll do and Cherry Select an old chart for educational purposes, and then I'll bring it back home to live real time trading. So here's the Cherry Picked Chart for educational purposes only. It is the Daily Chart of a running tendency that conducted from May 2014 to March 2015. The pips available in this downward tendency was approximately 3300 and if you got half of them you belong to the superb trader class. There are 3 things I would like to point out with this chosen chart and then I'll move on. So, if you enjoy finding secrets, here's mine:

  9. #129
    Picking up some speed. I am not going to speak much about becoming a fad we've discussed that at length and we could discuss it some more if anybody wishes to. This is about letting profits run, a separate subject. We do not wish to confuse the 2 subjects.

    If you have a look at the Daily chart in place 502 above, you will realize a few entry signals at the very top left. There might be a third but that I did not look for this, we'll look at entrance signals in more detail. This is about identifying a trend that is good and staying within it. First we have the PSAR switching from up trend after (printing under price) to downtrend after (printing over price) and staying in downtrend mode. Until the trend completes at the base of this page at which it flips back to up trend after, it remains down trend mode. I like it but it's not required. About the EU down trend chart above in Post 502 that the PSAR is in lime green dots with a measure placing of 0.0006

    Second, and this is important, I have plotted a 10 period vs. 50 period exponential Moving Average crossover over the daily chart. Note that it crosses over to trend mode at a good entrance point and remains in the down trend mode the entire length of the down trend. Near the bottom right the 10 period crosses back over the 50 period indicating it's time to exit and take profits. The 10 interval EMA is in pink and the 50 period EMA is in white.

    Finally, something equally as important or perhaps more so, but almost too simple. When we start getting signals that we need to leave the trend we affirm that the indicators with easy price action, the 20 day rule. When the price closes at a value higher than any we consider the trend. I've indicated 2 vertical green lines on that countdown.

    If you examine this chart a while it should be evident that this was one of the stronger down tendencies in recent decades.

    That has been the purpose of this presentation, to make sure everyone could see what a good trend resembles and how to Let your profits run.

    Now we'll return to real time trading. I apologize to anybody who's offended by the presentation of a cherry chart, but it's a device I had to use here. Back to live trading. Comments? Questions? Discussion? - G

  10. #130
    Finally, let's tie this together. When you look back in article 500 you will observe a chart of my entry trying find a fantastic trend. Stops are set to break even for the moment and price is accelerating upward (Positive second derivative for the math nerds). We moved over that 1 Hour chart before and there were no questions about it. I'm searching to follow the Daily chart as well. So here is the 1 Hour chart again.

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