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I doubt anybody will share a prosperous method, not even for the price of a book. Not for hundreds of thousands of dollars. A strategy is priceless. I honestly come to the forum once I am tired and want to interact. Don't talk. Remember no serious business man throws his keys away and you're competing.
The nature of the game as it is played, is that the public should understand that the fact can't be told from the few who know. - Jesse Livermore
Thanks for honoring us with your holiness. The majority of us grovelling expecting for the crumbs that drop off your desk. One day I hope, I'll attain to just half of your status.Originally Posted by ;
At the meantime, I just positioned in GU with a couple--what I call--are'feeler' pips. I feel as if I do not get my analysis (hunches) in the kind of pips, it, my analysis, means small.
Analysis:
Daily - downtrend
4H - downtrend with a strong retrace which is apparently peaking around the 89 SMA that it seems to be preparing for a continual downtrend.
Outstanding charts and drawing on there Zorndyke. Your observation of an up-trending slowly narrowing channel for the USD is spot on. Nearly every trend trader would love to exchange that uptrend. It is dependent upon their system concerning how they would enter and depart. I truly enjoy this dialogue, and a few may find it very informative. Some would enter this transaction using a bounce off the channel line. If that works for them I say YAY! And jump up and down and clap my hands. These things are observed by me, but I do not trade with any non-deterministic or non-definitive elements of judgement in my trading. So for instance, suppose that if price keeps going and goes a bit or rather it turns back? When do I input and when do I wait? Without touching the channel line Imagine if it pops? Imagine if a bit pops and then turns back down? I would need a rule for every possible outcome, on top of all of my risk and money management principles. It makes my head spin. So instead, I have a few straightforward rules. Price going up, buy. Price going down, sell. It's not ideal, but at least I do not get confused and make as many mistakes. Thank you for your observations. I'm sure there are a few reading your post that just had a light bulb change on, and that makes it all worth while. Best success. - G
Hey Taigen. No worries. We are all about the learning curve somewhere. I really don't mind sharing anything I have learned along the way at all. It is socialization that is great and I really have a passion for trading. I recognize that not one in a million traders will read some of my ramblings. Try as I might I couldn't convince many to give it a try. It is just not the get rich fast scheme most are searching for. Even if someone somewhere did decide to enter the identical AChf long trend that I am trading at the moment, that is just another small buyer in a huge market, making my commerce move up a tiny bit further and faster? So if any of the blather helps you whatsoever, you are welcome to it. Otherwise, dancing like no one is watching. - G
Yeah true, but if many people or each body is buying in precisely the exact same stage you are buying what do you think will happen? The market spikes, you get filled at a price and when everybody is completed buying goes back down, clears all of you guys out to acquire liquidity then resumes it's uptrend. Giving your entry point out generates sound around those factors.
I guess you do not have an audience large enough to generate that sort of succeeding but, why risk it? You never know how many people might follow your method or how traditional or hot it may become. Storms start from small winds.
It is ok to share small food for ideas about trading but giving out your strategy! , someone with a functioning method understands the market in a deeper level than the rest of the participants hence knows why he shouldn't share it. Does that imply forums like this shouldn't exist? No, it's only a nice entertaining place for traders, but if you think that will find out how to exchange ... I rest my case.
With all due respect, the Forex market is HUGE. Many times larger than the entire US stock, bond, futures, and options markets united. I really don't feel that if everybody reading these articles were to take my exact entries and exits it'd earn a portion of 1 pips value of difference. Of course I don't give out entries and exits. I'm only suggesting approaches that are possible to see them. My entrance method, the easy golden cross used for well over a hundred years and has been published thousands of times. There is no secret there. I'm sure there must be better ones out there, but me would only confuse and make me make mistakes that are costly. Trend following is one of the oldest and most successful methods in gambling. It's no secret. This World Series Champion Red Sox's owner used it to make billions and then bought the Red Sox and retired back to his first love. The central premise of my trading, reduce losses little (no, smaller!) And let profits run is older than I am, and all the dinosaurs as a kid and I might have played. So, at the day's end, I'm not worried at all. I actually look at all this. I believe that the more good I put out in the world, the more that comes back to me. It's a Karma thing. If I were to provide all my belongings to the poor, I win the lottery, twice. So be happy. Of course, that is just my own opinion. I could be wrong. - G
You have to be fun at parties. lol.
Anw, I learn alot from this site. Have been silent reader of Graviton's ribbon for years. And its kinda confidence push for me to begin this trading travel. I maybe not aâ€successful trader†by shared defintion but Im really happy pleasure and relaxed by doing so and by catching few dollars here and there to cover my bills and take my son to college. So live the dialogue up and grow ourselves in mindset that is cautious but optimistic.
Oh for Achf, im out G, have bagged some nice pipsseeking to short GA and GN. However, you know, trader makes plan... market laugh. lol.
Wow, that got deep fast. I almost went off on a rant. OK, back to something milder, which makes cash. We moved through reducing, controlling and removing (large) losses. My main point is that carrying large losses is a choice. No one is forced to take a reduction that is massive, they choose to. Why? Hope. The final refuge of the desperate. Hope is a welcome consolation in existence, but it has no place in trading. It contributes to poor decisions and the market punishes decisions aggressively. The market provides no consolation. Our only consolation is that we followed our trading rules just.
So lets all raise our right hand and vow never to take another massive loss in our life, regardless of what the situation or the outcome. OK? Done. No one could ever take another massive reduction. And because they're human and humans make mistakes occasionally, they will remember this article and also learn from their mistake, not replicate it, when they do.
If anyone here believes taking massive losses is an inevitable consequence of trading, I'm ready to debate them in the ground. We could assume that the problem of cutting losses little is dispensed with forevermore and we could proceed to the other premise of this thread, allowing profits run. Be patient, we are getting to the fun part. - G
Although Graviton stated it best, '' The Forex market is the biggest market on earth HUGE!!! Here are the players in the forex market: the central banks and governments, corporate and private banks and brokerage firms that handle hedge and mutual funds, corporations such as Boeing, along with other billion dollar companies and smaller, professional traders, and us, the small guys. There are businesses that don't even make a dent in their million currency trades. It's laughable to believe that a lot of retail traders can spike the market. At we go along for the ride. Period--end of discussion. Even when it seems level, there are trades occurring. If all of forex factory members really did a buy or sell of a currency pair on somebody's command, you would see nothing. If you like a retailer place in multi million order, you may have undergo Deutsche Bank or any other huge broker but that would not influence the market.
Rennaissance you are a funny man... just kidding. I really don't want to dis you but where did you believe retail traders could move the forex market?
I did get some positions in on GU.
The Haiken Ashi candles are still a pretty green which can indicate caution for a brief while.
Agreed. A number of the biggest players in Forex are considering trading for a profit. Central banks, hedgers and big transactions move the markets regardless of retail traders. We go along for the ride or we're run over by them. This thread is about how to proceed along for the ride, concerned. How to float across the waves and grab the big ones to receive the top rides. Losses should be apparent by now, so let us think about the other premise of the thread, allowing profits run.
How to let profits run actually is based upon the traders system. A streak of 15 pips is fantastic for a scalper who is risking only five. I can't do it, but there are scalpers who reach 50 percent or greater wins. A swing trader with a win rate of 33% may risk 70 pips and will need to let profits run to 180 pips average to show a profit. As opposed to looking for some response to how to let profits run, let us begin at the reason why we wish to let profits run.
We discussed earlier that different trading techniques create widely varying win rates from 15% to 50 percent (generally for very short term transactions ). The main reason to let profits run would be to improve reward to risk ratios to the point where a trader is profitable for the win rate of the preferred system. The lower the success rate, the larger the profits must be for a given risk. If we've done what we reasonably can to reduce risk, then we will need to work on letting profits run.
As an aside, it's possible that a system just can't generate the success rate, risk, and benefits essential to ever become profitable. I suggest traders who have not found a productive system ignore scams and scams. There are proven procedures that generate long term profits which should be the first attempt of a new traders study. Public funds are required to provide detailed advice on their fund yields, so it's rather simple to find out how it works for them and what their trading process is. If no professional traders are operating a fund which uses a system predicated on chasing the ones that exist or waves, or shadows are unprofitable, then prior to investing money and time in a person's flashing lights or decent story, I'd search elsewhere. Internet results are easily falsified, but funds, CTA's and such need to publish audited reports as well as the penalties for faking results are severe since Bernie Madeoff will testify. My system is trend trading and I can show many professional funds which have long term track records of profitability entirely trading trends. I have linked the results of Dunn Capital earlier but here it's again: https://www.trendfollowing.com/performance/
I can show a dozen similar to this and I am sure there are other trading systems which have published excellent effects in audited reports. If it generates real profits, you can bet there is and they're required to publish their own results. I am not an expert on other systems, but here is a link to a report to see more analysis about trend following results: https://www.google.com/url?sa=trct=j...v3Y70ek6mMzufV
I hope that links OK, but everyone here can use Google to do their own research on their favourite system. The point is, public funds must clarify their trading strategies (generally speaking ) and submit audited results due to their prospectus. If no professional CTA's, Hedge Funds or Mutual Funds are using some pitchfork trading method, you can bet it's because it doesn't work, despite the testimonies. Do not waste money and lifespan on methods which hedge funds with hundreds of full time researchers and resources have looked at and abandoned since they don't work.
But going on, let us assume you've gotten through that point and selected a trading system that's been proven to work, and by recognized I mean with a government audited performance report, not some yahoo's manufactured trading record. Then there is only these 3 variables, winning percent, risk and reward to consider. If everything which can be done to enhance percentage was done and the risk was reduced to the lowest reasonable price, then all that is left is to let profits run and see whether the system can be forced to work.
How far or how long if we let profits run? If we know what we will risk and we know our percent, we can readily compute what our typical profit needs to be to create our trading profitable. We can't just set a profit target at that amount though because trades wont make it that far and those who would go much further will have their profits cut short, of what we want to do exactly the opposite. In my trading system the majority of the profits are made 10 percent of those trades off. There is not any profit target for my system since one big enough to take profit off the 10 percent of the running trades would overlook taking any profit off 25% of those smaller but significant profitable trades. Without taking some profit off these smaller trades, my system would not be profitable overall. I need most of both the small and massive profits to be profitable overall.
It's late, so I'll leave it for the day. Tomorrow, I'll pick it back up. Happy trading to all. - G
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