Trend Trading
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Thread: Trend Trading

  1. #1
    Greetings and salutations to all Forex traders. This ribbon is called for a very simple reason. It is both tendencies exist in Forex or else they don't. If trends don't exist currency markets are a random walk, with no direction likely than another. If currency moves are random, then it'd be no more possible to generate a profit off trading Forex than making a profit off the toss of a pair of dice or the spin of a roulette wheel. It's ok to believe that, but if you do, you'd may also visit the casino. You get free drinks with your bets there. If however you believe that trends do exist in Foreign Exchange, then this thread will discuss how to find and profit from them. This debate has been moving back and forth between finance and math guys for decades, and we aren't going to resolve it . Here, we will assume trends exist and attempt to show how to make a profit from them.

    Just a few rules. Anyone of any level of experience is welcome to post . I just ask that everyone attempt to keep a positive attitude and stay respectful. I find the more positive my attitude, the more positive my trading results. I am trusting experienced traders can discuss items of mutual interest here and along the way they can mentor newbies, not conquer their dre. Just one other thing, we're here in order to discuss trading. Discussions of different topics should best be left to other threads. That said, trolls will be prohibited. Otherwise, comments or any queries regarding trading are welcome from anyone. Let us start.

  2. #2
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    quote Hi s. I developed a homegrown solution with Excel and a bit of VBA. I want to know how it works under the hood. If you are interested I made a thread about it. You could be able to do something similar by back-dooring your r studio outputs into glow. Once the egy is made and the universe is chosen with the data and broker configurations it takes around 15 minutes to compile these extended range outcomes. It sure beats doing the painstaking backtesting process...
    Much appreciated

  3. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    quote Time series can have more than two kinds of trends: image See how the random walk seems like a down trend despite it's fluke. Even after the truth that you tell it was NOT a downward trend? The worse is that the last picture. The random walk! These are artificial trends with a component that is deterministic that is constant. But can you tell if the upcoming major interest rate will change? And by how much? Not really. Same for central banks intervention, QE, earthquake or anything. The evolution of the fundamentals is also...
    Interesting. I shall meditate on this for a few decades.
    The random walks sounds a lot like a normal price chart.

  4. #4
    As a practicing statistician, we must know that there are short term down tendencies in a long term up trend, for brief there are down tendencies in upward and upward trends trends in trends. The real work is the capacity to sieve out the tendencies. I so much believe in trend lines especially 14SMA in 1hr and 15min it has overtime be advantageous to me. Another means of sieving from the tendencies is in the usage of default Parabolic Stop and Reversal. However, there are scenarios where there are no trends-random movement. Victory to you !

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Greetings and salutations to all fellow Forex traders. This thread is called Trend Trading for a simple reason. It is thus, either trends exist in Forex or they do not. If trends do not exist currency markets are only a random walk, with no leadership likely than another. If currency moves are random, then it'd be more possible to make a consistent profit off trading Forex than creating a consistent profit off the toss of a pair of dice or the spin of a roulette wheel. It is ok to believe that, however...
    Imho your assertion about trends is untrue, the presence of trends or not doesn't tell us anything about the randomness or from the market. I have two methods and one in evaluation, neither depend on the existence of trends for their achievement.

  6. #6
    Hello Graviton

    I have been chassing your threats from MTF trading.
    Very good trading inputs you really have been making ever since.
    Infact, to agree with you, also from my 6 years experience in trading (crudeoil), am 100 percent behind evrything
    you've said.

    A)To get a trend and make a living from trading, all one has to do is to be sure the D1 and W1 candles are moving the same direction.
    B) Prev candle CLOSE of both W1 and D1 are (UPTREND = D1 over W1) and vice vesa for DOWNTREND.
    C) Entries trigered at PULLBACKS ( at the direction of this W1 candle) and to locate pullbacks I use round levels of 100, 75 and 25 (as service resistance)

    I have attached a chart just to demone my findings up to now.

    May I apologise if am violeting the scope of this thread

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Looking Good G. The one thing that I'm not clear about is how do you determine at the end of the week vs letting it roll ahead for a long term, if you'll Close out a Stack. AG
    Hi AG. Well, we must take profits or we will never have any. A stack closes if it strikes SL condition or my TP. I shut a whole portfolio of transactions if they hit my 5% reduction limitation (and stop trading for the week), and I shut a whole portfolio of transactions if it strikes my profit limitation, about 4 percent in a day or 10 percent in a week, after it pulls back just a little.

    Individual trades or the entire portfolio of transactions will always stop out in a preset limit if they turn against me. It's conceivable that a commerce, or a whole portfolio of transactions could run a time and go to a very high profit, but this is by design. It's probably the upside that's confusing. There are scenarios where there is not any obvious upside down exit. For instance I might make profits for weeks in a row and not exit. We've got a limited downside and an upside. It is always possible, in concept at least, for you to run to riches, although trades do not run over a couple of days to a few weeks with my preferences. Did that make sense? - G

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    quote Hi AG. Well, we have to take profits or we will never have any. When it strikes SL condition or my TP a pile closes through the week. I close a whole portfolio of trades should they reach my 5 percent reduction limit (and stop trading for the week), and I close a whole portfolio of trades if it strikes my profit limit, about 4% in a day or 10 percent in a week, after it pulls back just a little. Should they turn against me, the portfolio of trades or Personal trades will always stop out in a limit. It's possible that one transaction, or a whole portfolio of...
    Due G. Will contemplate for a while possibly using a glass of wine. Hahahah AG

  9. #9
    Graviton - I wish to respectfully disagree, but it's difficult to argue about regularly dropping all those pips you have accumulated in the bank.

    I guess I feel there should be a option to leave possibly one trade from the stack to grow to its full potential... if not the whole stack. But then again, is the risk?

    Doing it that way is a lot like how farmed veg is grown to a size and then harvested on a regular basis. People with allotments or climbing privately or for shows will often achieve something far higher.

    But the end result is to build the account (at least for most people), therefore ensuring these profits are accepted on a regular basis may be surely be the most consistent means to do it. Increases at any particular point in time, though it does not supply the largest.

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    - I wish to disagree, but it is hard to argue about regularly dropping all those pips you have collected from the bank. I figure I feel there should be a option to leave possibly 1 commerce from the pile to grow to its entire potential... or even the whole pile. But is that worth the risk? Doing this way is a lot like veg is grown to some size and then harvested on a regular basis. Individuals with allotments or growing privately or for displays will achieve something. But the end result...
    Hello Nefser. On a three commerce pile for example, the obvious thing to do would be as soon as the top two trades on the pile retrace back to break even for maintain the foundation trade and both would be to shut them out, hoping it's going to grow bigger. But hope isn't a strategy. Since the earliest trade in the pile must be shut out 20, with FIFO that's not possible for me. So, that is not a choice for me personally trading from the united states.

    But does this make sense for you since you aren't bound by FIFO? We all know the short term momentum is working against you causing the two trades to reunite to BE. Your 3 pile trade has failed at this point. The issue is, what is the probability the price return to higher highs and will undo back , vs. continue it's downward path until all your profits have disappeared? And when price reverses and extends to highs, what is your trading plan? Are you really going to pile the next trade on and place risk back into your trade?

    If 50% of the plants in your backyard would shortly shrivel up and die, and you couldn't know which would and that wouldn't, are you more inclined to pick all of the vegetables now rather than wait to see which would grow bigger and which would perish? I really don't know how to answer these queries, to be honest. I've just found that exiting the whole stack affords a big consistent profit. Essentially, each time I hit 3 or more on a pile I am 100% guaranteed to earn a profit, without fail. There will be other trades. There'll always be trades, when you've got the capital. But until someone could answer these difficult questions for me, I will take the bird in the hand vs. mere hope for two in the bush. I am wondering if the tendency to hold on the commerce is not more of an emotional attachment than the fiscal one. Maybe it's just hard to give up on something which has given so much pleasure before to you? - G

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