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Thread: 50% in five months

  1. #11
    Idea Two: the grid

    There's lots of grid trading ideas on the market, and the majority of them are broken. Either they leveraged , or they have all TP and no SL, or they martingale , or they enter trades contrary to the trend and expect it will retrace.

    I have a few basic concepts that shape my views of FX:

    1. I don't have any idea what price will do.
    2. Price reacts to S/R lines.
    3. Price has momentum and inertia.
    4. Fibs are bad.
    5. I don't understand what price will do.

    So price will do something when it reaches S/R, but that I don't understand what it will do. It might bounce, or it might push. Or it might just sit there. If it sits there, it will sit a while. If one way or the other moves, it will continue moving until it hits a second S/R spots and must make a determination.

    Squiggly lines don't tell you any of this. They tell you exactly what price was performing, over a period of time, normally. This has its own uses.

    For me personally, I only assume that price will do SOMETHING, and I want to be on the train when it leaves, whichever way it goes. And I want to get off the train when it slows down enough for me to leap without breaking an arm. My grid allows me do this.

  2. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    OK, I've had a few emails about what I'm doing, and I realized that I've created some confusion since I'm talking about two distinct ideas....
    I'd much prefer trading volatility in that manner, loe a bullish industry and a bullish stock in that industry far greater chances of getting a greater return and maximum 2:1 Margin, but it is a lot of going through 100's of chart work that's tiring after awhile.

  3. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Idea Two: the grid

    There is lots of grid trading ideas on the market, and most of them are broken....
    I'd dump the Fib's, although you will never know what there going to perform the likelihood of obtaining a change from 1 is not worth being there, 20% inverse rate in my testing ages past.

    It's about momentum though, if price comes to some S/R line, it'll either break it or bounce, should you await the price to start going up then jump on it, you've got better odds of it after through ( in good PA, Monday - Thursday the last week forget it)

    The same is true with Squiggly lines, however they automatically monitor the market therefore a lazy mans tool

  4. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    I'd ditch the Fib's, though you will never know what there will do the odds of getting a reversal from 1 isn't worth them being there, 20% reverse rate out of my testing ages past.

    It's about momentum though, if price comes to a S/R lineup, it is going to either break it bounce, if you wait for the price to start moving up then jump on it, you've got better odds of it after through ( in great PA, Monday - Thursday the previous week forget it)

    The same is true with Squiggly lines, but they automatically track the market so a lazy mans tool
    I treat Fibs like S/R. Price will bounce or push. You are right, you do not understand what price will probably do with one. That is why I am using short and long grids. When price begins moving, I will be there.

  5. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    I treat Fibs like S/R. Price will bounce or push. You're right, you do not understand what price will do with one. That is why I'm using grids that are long and short. When price begins moving, I'll be there.
    The odds are it will push, the issue with Fib's is a lot of individuals go Long on a downward movement close, there buying into a downward trend and will likely get burnt and if you look back at the chart you can see readily the 1's which worked, it is too easy after ofcourse which makes them keep plugging at it.

    I had exactly the same issue with my method, A line with a 70% reversal rate state, that 30 percent is a killer, not enough information on M1 to clearly find the reversal off the EMA lineup ( M1 200ema for example, super powerful), so fingers cross believe I have that fixed!!

  6. #16
    Shame they don't do orders where say you can :-

    Activate the order to go Long on GU hitting 1.5980
    Cancel the order if 1.5960 is struck.
    And don't Proceed before 1.6010 is struck.
    SL Predefined aswell.

    You are able to setup your own numbers ofcourse, that has been you can say on a move down if we reach this area, but not too low and we get a move up good chances it will continue up.

    You may likely write a EA to adhere to these instructions while your off and trail the SL maybe ??

  7. #17
    Not much action in live account or demo accounts so much. I did re enter trades that are short on my exotic carry presentation, so I will check in with that account after.

    I have a few long/short games operating. I opened two new subaccounts at Oanda week and shorted every pair on a single, and emphasise each pair on the other. Trade size is 1/10 of account size. I only wanted to see which pairs are paying the carry per dollar invested, and it ends up to be exactly what I anticipated.

    So now once I looked at these accounts, I discovered that once again, one was at a loss and another at a profit. They are still a loss. So I'm trying something a little bit different, I looked all the trades and entered the following trade on these pairs. So I'm adding to my winners, once again, but this is time based instead of pip based.

    I have another two accounts where I've placed orders at 25 pip spacing, one is shorts below the current price and the other is longs above the current price. This is a bit different because I'm simply taking trades when price moves my way, so theoretically both accounts should find some profit.

    Trade size is 1/4 of account size, and I'm trading all the majors (23 pairs). Trade size might be too high. Also my biggest winners in the other two accounts are exotics, but I'm not certain how to evaluate the risk of these pairs since they can jump around alot. And I might eliminate the ranging pairs such as EURCHF and AUDNZD. I will see how functionality is.

    With both theories, the notion is to shut when the amount of the two accounts is positive. I'm uncertain how much positive. When it looks promising I will post screenshots later in the week.

  8. #18
    I have attached a few pictures, I hope they turn out alright. The two accounts with short orders in 1 account and extended orders at another have turned positive, as shown. Not sure where it is going to end up.

    As of right now, positive profit is about $3. I'm happy to see that. It took about 30 minutes to set up these orders, so we'll see whether it's a good return on my time that was spent.

    Another accounts with the transactions entered a week apart for almost any pairs in positive land is not doing as sexy. However, those baskets were not setup as orders. I took a bunch of transactions at all the market was showing in the time, so it's going to be much more difficult to observe a profit there. I might return and change that up a bit.

  9. #19

    So I'm in a bit of drawdown right now. I visit one of my biggest issues: GBP pairs. I need to use spacing in the grid, or a place on these. I forgot about it and ran into this issue. Probably I'll use more spacing.

    That is my short grid / extended grid system. I believe this would be simpler using a hedging broker, so I might try that at any stage. At the very least I would use margin.

  10. #20
    Here is my additional short / long system with 2 Oanda subaccounts. As you can see, it has a healthy profit, and supports my thought. The difference between the 2 systems is that the preceding one is a grid, using 25 pip spacing. For system 2, I took transactions on all of available pairs. Tuesday the transactions opened, and then I entered transactions the winners on the all. So the winners have $200,000 riding on these, and the losers have $100,000.

    I must have taken some pics from yesterday when I was running around a $20,000 joint drawdown. Total margin used was $200,000 a subaccount.

    Since this is a time dependent system rather than price reliant, it must theoretical grab the very long term secular tendencies and allow you to use weekly candles to guide your trading.

    It may be handy to begin this account outside by putting orders from price so that it has to move in my direction before beginning. Because at least a few losing trades would not be taken this would reduce some of the drawdown.

    I do not know about the exotics. I am not certain how much I can count on that, although A number of them have been winners. Since they're pegged CNY and SAR should be dropped.

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