Thread: EUR/USD flagging south this coming week

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Apo, nothing is sure in such markets, which is for sure. However, any trader attempts to reduce risk and increase chances of a successful result depending on their directional bias/assessment/analysis. There are times when the Europe session will initally market off the Euro, but often (my observation) this seems to stop and move into reverse if the DAX opens.

As for what will occur this Monday coming, last week was a exceptional (maybe once in a life-time) occasion. It isn't every week which Tricky Trichet pulls a point to say no more cuts the US Fed cuts to zero, then Trichet does a backflip and realises his error, two days later. Can you see any reason whatsoever for the Euro to retrace back to the former heights of it . Buckley's and none. Could it re-trace some? Possible. Might it move? Possible. All trading is decision and also the balance of probabilities, in this scenario, I think that the Dollar bulls will acquire this specific skirmish come the end of next week. (And not, we will only know for sure when the week is done, but all of us make assessment based on the best information available and trade so )

Therefore, a question for Angela (who thinks/hopes that the Euro is forming an alligator jaw to re-trace back to it's dizzy heights)

What hard evidence is that anything could occur next week or anytime in the near future to indie that we could re-visit the Euro highs of a week?

Given that... that the US rate cut last week was the state of this country for several weeks (i.e. trading well below 1.00%) before it was made official (http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/om...dfundsdata.cfm )

and awarded that Trichet has foreshadowed not this current rate cut for its EZ but maybe others... is there anything at all likely to spur the Euro to do anything other than return to it's former resting spot pre-hyperbole of the past week today that all of the facts and evidence and outcomes are 100% clear?

Do the charts, on the balance of probabilities, tend to supply further evidence to back up that view?

All these and several other questions we ask ourselves.

Originally Posted by ;

Speculating Market direction is an Art therefore can't be taught/learned in a desk.
It can Just be assimilated by experiencing it.

Amen ! Strangely enough, I still have not heard it too much about here. Is Phil.

All trading is decision (knowledge experience) as well as also the balance of probabilities. The art of predicting accurately is indeed a craft learned through experience. That is why it is recommended that newbies don't plow all their stake money that is available into their first sojourn into the market.

Better to divide your Currency Market account alloion in to 4 amounts, allow plenty of time for studying and the experience variable to kick in, and transfer just one part of it to start with (so you have plenty in reserve if/when you blow up your initial account). Can not say how many times I have seen traders going to the reality-check of trading backing it with all their available funds from the false confidence of demo trading to lose their shirts. Massive difference between the two.

Originally Posted by ;

By definition, whenever you've got long wicks like that....it's not. But that's neither here nor there.

What actually matters is when people, like myself, who thought another way waited for set ups to short. I did, it did not come. Oh well. No transaction.

The following area is where we are at this time. (1.37-38) In case that provides, then certainly we're going straight back up. Nevertheless....there's a few potential problems with that situation too.

For starters - Europe is releasing inflation numbers this week. And I know it might come as a surprise, but when...

Only considering big moves in strong pairs it seems that the market likes to retrace 50-61.8percent on big moves around the daily or weekly chart. I believe 38.2 may be a little overly week. Even though, if 38.2percent retains which will take lots of time and consolidation. I feel that the upside for the eur is currently going to be quite large.

Just my take, so take it with a grain of salt.

Philip

Originally Posted by ;

Only looking at large moves in solid pairs it looks like the market likes to retrace 50-61.8% on large moves over the daily or weekly chart. I believe 38.2 may be a bit too week. Although, if 38.2% retains that will require lots of time as well as consolidation. Then I feel that the upside for your eur is currently going to be large.

Just my take, so take it with a grain of salt.

Philip

I feel a retracement into fib 50 percent at 1.429 area is possible.

Originally Posted by ;

These are 4H charts with triangles (wedge flags) very clearly forming, major resistance evident at 1.34 for the EUR/USD, a former service level for this particular currency.

Likewise, the USD/CHF is currently close to or on service too at 1.17, also a former stage of resistance a few weeks ago, but today (probably ) to act as service.

Note the lower wicks on the Swissy, these are called quad-tips, they are lined up, you can draw a horizontal line , indiing a solid base of support has been laid at the degree with a high probability...

Euro formation is a rising wedge, along with the Swissy's a declining wedge. Most of the time the patterns divide in the direction of the trend that is immediate and to both sides of the flat resistance/support barrier.

Originally Posted by ;

Euro formation is an increasing wedge, and the Swissy's a falling wedge. The majority of the time the patterns divide in the path of the trend that is immediate and to the side of the horizontal resistance/support barrier.

Well I see the precise opposite to your article. Swissey is channeling up within a wedge that's a bearish pattern and euro channeling down within a bullish flag or a falling wedge, both are bullish patterns. Best detected on 4hr. Now is trading within an 1hr station and was giving pips to the traders who follow strict TA and understand how to trade current market requirements.