Strategy of losers
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Thread: Strategy of losers

  1. #1
    I read a thread by downrivertrader that said the most important thing in gambling was to trust your own instinct. At the time I was trading simple S/Rbadly it was mentioned, so I thought why not? I decided to a 1:1 R/R (in actuality, less than 1R into account for disperse ) and I would exchange whenever my gut instinct told me to. Screw the rules.

    I dropped 10 transactions in a row. The odds of that happening are less than 1 in a 1000. I was shocked and annoyed to get a day or 2 (live account) before I realised just how important a lesson which was. We're hardwired to screw trading up. I wished to know why.

    Why do losers lose? To discover the answers hasn't been simple, although it is a simple question. Ignore the Mark Douglas bullsh*t, dismiss the threads of why 95 percent of people lose (all guesswork and badly uninformed), and to find the fact you've got to collate and analyse thousands of hours of Oanda open interest information, dozens of academic papers on retail order flow and unite with a dollop of lateral thinking.

    The results are a mixture of the sudden and obvious. Some things I won't reveal here, however, the thrust of what is important I will. And why? Simple really. It merely motivates you to get into the next level, therefore it is a largely selfish endeavour, by showing what you know. I recently come to this conclusion; I always swore I'd never share any of this, so consider it while you can. Before I do however...

  2. #2
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Near-Perfect Market Indior Discovered
    Years of Research Reveals Consistent Trading Edge at Aurora, IL

    Stock market researchers at the University of Chicago yesterday Declared a breakthrough in their efforts to find the perfect market indior. He is Delbert Dunmore, a home-based trader in Aurora, Illinois.

    Based on Giovanni Celini, Ph.D. of the University's Institute for Market Research,'' Mr. Dunmore has failed to earn money for 18 consecutive years of trading, with only a single couple of profits during that time.

    This is a result...
    Truly brilliant and outstanding article. Had me in stitches.... In all seriousness though, there's a lot to be learnt from the particular thread. Outstanding research data was introduced by Triphop that has caused me to have a second look at my trading. For instance, EURUSD versus AUDUSD. Fantastic stuff!

  3. #3

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Near-Perfect Market Indior Discovered
    Years of Research Shows Consistent Trading Edge in Aurora, IL

    Stock market researchers in the University of Chicago yesterday Declared a breakthrough in their efforts to find the perfect market indior. He's Delbert Dunmore, a home based trader in Aurora, Illinois.

    According to Giovanni Celini, Ph.D. of the University's Institute for Market Research, Mr. Dunmore has neglected to make money for 18 consecutive years of trading, with just a single month of profits during that moment.

    That is an outcome...
    Outrageously funny.

  5. #5
    Another and Delbert Dunmore link.
    And should you guys click on his name you will see his picture.

  6. #6
    . . .will be profiled at a BBC documentary airing tonight (26 October) at 9pm on BBC 2.

    At a thread entitled Strategy of Losers, I thought it appropriate to mention a winner (spurious link, I know), anyway, I thought a few of you might like to know, and as we've had Mark Douglas's soundbites trotted outside, some may be interested in Buffett's:

    Thanks to the OP for pulling DT from the woodwork. Always worth reading

  7. #7
    AstonDan, nothing tenuous relating to this link in any way, will watch - cheers!

  8. #8

    I thought you may appreciate this. It had been given to me by somebody who took the time to attempt and teach me the way to trade.

    A New Mindset

    In order to be able to see these cycles of opinion since they take place it is critical to remain outside them. Traders who are participating in a current fervor generally don't see themselves as engaging in a fervor at all. How can we remain outside the forest? By adopting a mindset which allows us to do that. The following short story written by Kurt Vonnegut's Kilgore Trout character in”Slaughterhouse Five” (you may also have seen the story referenced in”Market Wizards”) provides a fantastic illuion of the mindset we'll take:

    ”The Big Board
    ... It had been roughly an Earthling man and girl who were kidnapped by extra-terrestrials. They were placed in a zoo on a world called Zircon-212.
    These fictitious individuals within the zoo had a big board allegedly showing stock market quotations and commodity prices along one wall of the habitat, and a news ticker, and a telephone that was allegedly linked to a brokerage on Earth. The creatures on Zircon-212 advised their captives they had invested a million dollars to get them back on Earth, and that it had been around the captives to manage it so that they'd be wealthy when they returned to Earth.
    The telephone and the major board along with the ticker were all fakes, of course. They were only stimulants to make the Earthlings perform vividly for the crowds at the zoo--to make them jump up and down and cheer, or gloat, or sulk, or tear their hair, to be scared shitless or to sense as contented as babies in their mothers' arms.
    The Earthlings did really well on paper. This was a part of the rigging, of course. And religion got mixed up in it. The news ticker edued them that everyone should pray, and that the President of the United States had announced National Prayer Week. The Earthlings had had a week on the market before that. They had lost a small fortune in olive oil futures. So they gave praying a whirl. It worked. Olive oil went up.” - Kurt Vonnegut

    As traders, we are going to sit like the Zirconians and watch the other traders as if they are some kind of attraction in a human zoo. We will assume that the news is meaningful to the extent it drives individuals to buy or sell and that there is no inherent reality behind it. We'll be asking,”What are these strange beings doing and what beliefs are driving their behavior?” If you think there's a specific quantity of disparagement for the fellow traders' skill inherent in a method which includes pretending they are in a zoo, well, then you're right. If 90% of traders lose then you not only avoid the things that they do, but do the reverse. It's not that there isn't camaraderie among traders, however it's a lot more fun when it's with other winners. So hang together with the Zirconians stay out of the cage, and please do not feed the traders.

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    ... please do not feed the traders.
    I could tape this to my monitor to remind me of this story...
    it makes me laugh and keep a proper detached, trade-neutral, positive mindset.

  10. #10
    Dopey, you read me well... this is a fantastic article. It reminds me a little public speaking - the best public speakers are concentrating on the audience not on themselves. Thanks for posting.

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