Thread: $ For The week of 10/23-With Some Trade Ideas

I would like to start off when posting outcomes by making a suggestion for the calender. Take the core PPI for example; the outcome is listed in green, indiing the number was better then anticipated. Being that PPI is an inflation number and that it came out high, I believe they should list it in red as this number is a result. I really do I am sure it requires it to conduct and want to say thanks to whomever runs this whole thing though-FF is a excellent place to discuss ideas.

I have alot of questions about some of the outcomes we've seen this week and the total tone (negative) of this $. The bulls have run out of gasoline and I am not certain why. In my thinking, there certainly were a lot of (inflationary) indiors.

The week began using the Empire Index 2x as good as anticipated. The core PPI has been 3x higher consensus. The TIC report revealed that a vast amount of overseas capitol being spent in US gov't newspaper ($ at the short term, foreigners have to buy $'s to buy the bonds). New jobless claims were down. Most curious to me was the response to this market off the core CPI; although the number was on consensus, it demones that number as being higher then the Fed has stated it needs it to be and also the y/y rate is the highest for several decades. Then from last weeks higher NAHB reading (a shocker even though it's still far below 50), we had the gov't saying that housing starts increased. Bernanke has stated plainly that the Fed is based on a slowing in the building of new houses to slow the economy. . .the only - reports were the Philly Fed along with indiors.

On the other hand, the market is convinced there will not be a US hike next week and this is why we saw gains in the GBP, EUR, AUD and NZD. In GBP,NZD, and AUD particularly, we have markets in which traders are convinced rates will go up at their meetings. So what's going on in the short term is traders getting into these currencies.

The huge thing next week is going to be the tone of the Fed announcement following the rate announcement. The market will be focusing on this. For the life of me I can not see how it will be anything but hawkish. Personally I am preparing to see a 180 from the markets perception about what the Fed is going to be doing next time. Don't Neglect the NFP and the upward revisions. There are a lot of jobs in the economy.

I took a longer term mini postion from the GBP/USD (long) dependent on the markets perception of no increase for the FED plus a increase from the BoE. I am gonna watch this because perception can change. If I am lucky enough that $- sentiment remains until the FOMC, I gonna be from it.

How do you find the announcement? In my thinking, it can not be anything but quite hawkish. Your opinion?

As everybody here knows, I've made some terrible calls lately; but I went brief on USD/JPY using a short-term target in 117.50. After the GDP comes out tomorrow, I'll have exited together with my limitation or my stop loss in 119.00. Hope for the best

Originally Posted by ;

Thats exactly what I do with my presentation I take it as a real reduction... to me it is.

Excellent advice.

Thanks for the props-BTW I truly know nothing about opitions but I'm interested. Which platform do trade on? What is the upside of a trade like that, if you're able to just lose the premium?

Yes die and I will have to live by my conclusions with this one. Happily This is a little account, and I am not depending on it to reside. My scenario is caused by letting an EA operate Unattended for a couple hours, and having a setting then it should have been operating with. When the went down, part of it happened, and that I thought that I was out of those forests. I began the EA back up and Historical EDT, it got caught in a trend and maintained buying lots, when it should have ceased. Yes I've demo analyzed this EA, and Demo vs. live testing is vastly different. I am not sure I've backtested something, although in most of the demo testing it does come out of this kind of fad. I really do trade manually too, with 1-2% risk only, and would not have that much of my equity at risk. Somthing my EA should take into account. !! Now it's wait and see, and the $ does not take a hit tomorow, I'd like to avoid the Big M-call. If someone can give some insight as to where the might head tomorrow when London opens I'd really like to hear it.


Thanks
Rusty

Ironicly I remained away from Using this EA on GBPUSD, since it trended too much.

You gota game is treated by ta deal with trading just like a quarterback. A young man isn't gonna go at the outset-Tom Brady might-but he has already won any superbowls. How many have u won? If u can start with a couple of easy short passes. Should you really feel as though you haven't a clue cease. Don't throw. Hand off the ball. Eventually you'll see that recipient 40 yards downfield from a defender. If you've already chucked 2 interceptions, not just will not you see that man, but the coach may seat you!

How were your outcomes from the previous week? Had a few losers? If you have like 15 pips or so, book it. Begin with a winner; get yourself if you can. The value of a couple of trades, even if it's just a few pips, builds your confidence. The bigger trades tend to come near the end of the week anyway-if you've been watching the markets and the fundamentals, you'll probably have a fantastic feel for things at that time.

It is hard to become a John Elway as a trader; winning a game in the past 2 minutes requires an wonderful amount of talent and mental strength. I'll throw the bomb but if I gotta dump off it and kick a field goal to win a game, I'll do it.

We're at the NFL now. Everyone is big, fast and powerful and on any given Sunday...

Trading the US GDP and core PCE QoQ

For me this is a commerce where 2 opposing facets exist: $ negative fundamental info vs. a lot of profits there for the taking from traders that obtained long from 8780, 8800, etc..

We've seen the GBP profit about 120 pips because the rate statement and announcement. It shut in NY. What this signifies is that so far, traders have not yet obtained profits and traders continue to be long based on the GDP numbers being at or under consensus.The price and lack of profit taking confirms this for me. GDP is a number that can be researched quite accurately; the components of it are understood. What could happen from here?

It's likely to see any profits obtained during Friday's London session. No way to predict have to watch and see what happens. When we do see some profits taken along with the amount holds, an excellent oppurtunity exits in the GBP. The ideal trade is if it's at this level before 12.30 GMT. When it is, I intend to take a long position.

What can happen is that after a bottom is hit, GDP buying will resume gradually. You may choose to attempt to ch it because this happens.

What I'd like to not see is the GBP get considerably higher from here. No way, again. Following the statement the higher it is before the numbers, the less it increases In my thinking. The thing to look out for in a higher degree is a brief pop up, followed by a big round of profit taking.What makes me cautious of profit taking is that it's the end of the week along with the end of the month. Traders may want to reserve profits due to their accounts. You are going to have to watch because of this Should you enter this transaction from a higher degree. Of course, continuous buying of the pound may be seen; but as I said, the more complex the degree of cable prior to the transaction, the more tricky it's going to be.

If your asking yourself why I'm seeing the GBP/USD pair rather than the EUR/USD pair, I'm trading on my basic assumption of one currency (GBP) who is rate is tipped to move up vs one currency (USD) who is rate is not.

Originally Posted by ;

If your asking yourself why I'm seeing the GBP/USD pair as opposed to this EUR/USD pair, I'm trading on my fundamental premise of one currency (GBP) who is rate is tipped to go up vs one currency (USD) who is rate is not.

To novice fundamental traders, the aforementioned is 100% pleasant.
GBPUSD is poised to violate 1.8950 intermediate obstacle and if that falls, 1.9000 is available for a sexy strike.

Originally Posted by ;

[01:54 EUR/USD: Agents Capping At 1.2715 For Today, Little Stops Above] Sydney, October 27: The EUR/USD is bid in Asia this afternoon with a few stops above 1.2715 in the markets focus. There's an adequate sell order at that level and much more selling tipped at 1.2720/25. Larger stops are constructing above 1.2725. Sentiment towards the EUR/USD has turned bullish following the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, hawkish remarks from Trichet and data last night together with rumours that the US GDP will be anticipated. There are whispers in the street that the US GDP may arrive in about 1.5%, which would increase the view taken following the FOMC announcement on Wednesday that the Fed won't be hiking rates again. The EUR/USD trades 1.2707/12. -- [IFR Forex Watch] [SQUAWK BOX]

NewstraderFX has pointed that the FED may have advance knowledge of the PCE and that, they decided NOT to increase rates last Wednesday.

CurrentlyI am in long . . Will add more lots @ 1.8915; could not be wrong on this one. At least if the rumor is false, it would move GBPUSD . .

Originally Posted by ;

Trading the US GDP and core PCE QoQ

For me this is a commerce where 2 conflicting factors exist: $ unfavorable fundamental info vs. a lot of profits there for the taking from traders who got long from 8780, 8800, etc..

We have seen the GBP gain about 120 pips because the rate announcement and announcement. It shut at around 8910 in NY. This means is that so far, traders still haven't taken profits and traders continue to be long based on the GDP numbers being at or below consensus.The price and absence of profit taking confirms this to me. GDP is a number that can be researched very accurately; the elements of it are known. What can happen from here?

It's likely to see any profits taken during Friday's London session. No way to forecast need to watch and see what happens. If we do see some profits taken along with the level holds, an oppurtunity that is long exits again in the GBP. The ideal trade would be if it is at this level just before 12.30 GMT. If it's, I plan to take a long position.

What can happen is that after a bottom is hit, GDP buying will resume gradually. You might want to try to ch it because this happens.

What I would like to not see is that the GBP get considerably higher from here. No way to predict this, again. In my thinking the greater it's before the numbers, the less it will rise following the announcement. The thing to look out for from a higher level is a succinct pop up, followed with a significant round of profit taking.What makes me wary of profit taking is that it is the end of the week and the end of the month. Traders might want to book profits for their accounts. You are going to need to watch for it, if you do get into this trade from a level that is higher. Of course, continuous buying of the pound might be seen; but as I mentioned, the higher the level of cable before the trade, the trickier it is likely to be.

If your asking yourself why I am seeing the GBP/USD pair as opposed to this EUR/USD pair, I am trading on my fundamental assumption of a single currency (GBP) who's rate is tipped to go up vs a single currency (USD) who's rate is not.

Your everyday view in the currency market specifically GBP/USD is obviously worth considering! Keep posting more NewstraderFX! Way to go!!!

Originally Posted by ;

You gotta treat trading like a young quarterback treats a game. There is A mann't gonna go for the bomb in the Brady might-but he won any superbowls. Many have u won? If u can, start with two or three simple short moves. A clue stop if you feel as though you haven't. Don't throw. Hand off the ball. You'll notice that receiver 40 yards downfield from a defender. You might be benched by the trainer, although if you have already thrown 2 interceptions, not won't you see that man!

How were your outcomes from the preceding week? Had some losers? On your next trade, if you have like 15 pips or so, book it. If you're able to start with a winner; put yourself. The worth of a couple of trades that are winning, even if it's just a few pips, builds your confidence. The bigger trades tend to come towards the end of the week anyway-if you have been watching the markets and the fundamentals, you have a good sense for things at that moment.

It is hard to be a John Elway as a trader; winning a game in the past 2 minutes requires an wonderful quantity of talent and mental toughness. I'll throw the bomb occasionally, but I'll do it if I got ta kick a field goal to win a game and dump off it.

We're at the NFL now. Everyone is big, fast and strong and on any given Sunday...

Thank you for your kind words I closed a number of the transactions last night to get a loss hoping it will allow the remaining trades a little room to breathe a little more. US news is due in about an hour, sounds like the $ could eliminate a little more, we will see.
Rusty

Resistances are 1.8920s and 1.8950s the later being alternative related.

When these pins fall later, 1.9000 is an easy goal.